房价下跌、信心转变，政府救市还管用吗？

曾经红火的房地产现在是彻底凉了下来。现在各大城市的房价实际成交的价格同最高点相比至少都是下跌了百分之三十左右。人们的观念也彻底发生了改变。从以前相信房子是保值增值的投资品，房价会一直涨下去，到现在已经不那么愿意出手买房了，人们也终于意识到买房也不是稳赚不赔的投资，而是风险相当高的。

因为房屋的价格已经远远超出了人们的收入水平。某种意义上来说，它就是一个投资品，它的金融属性已经远远超过它实用属性的支持。那么没有哪一种投资品是只涨不跌的。房价永远涨这样近乎神话的说法。为什么那么多人信。倾家荡产，掏空两代人的钱包，凑首付，都要投入这个市场呢？原因说出来可能有些搞笑，就是大家真的相信政府。

因为房地产对中国经济太重要了，好像在繁荣的年景里面，房地产贡献了中国GDP的百分之二十左右，是名副其实的支柱产业。另外房地产的繁荣带动了地价的上涨，成了地方政府的主要收入来源。所以人们对房地产的信心其实是来源于政府，不会让房地产下。这种想法促听起来是很有道理的。但是这里有几个致命的逻辑错误。首先政府并不是一个真实的实体，它是有很多很多个人组成的，它是一种想象的虚拟的实体，它实际上并没有自己的意识。所以政府这个组织也不可能明白自己的利益所在。确实房地产下跌会对经济造成很大的打击，摧毁地方政府收入的来源。但是政府并不是一个活的东西，它不会意识到这一点。
一个很极端的例子，就是明朝末年，李自成的大军正向北京城进军。崇祯皇帝召集朝廷大员皇亲国戚。正是这些人组成明朝政府核心的那些机构，要求他们拿出自己家的钱来补充军费，抵挡李自成进攻北京，结果并没有多少人积极响应皇帝的这个号召，只凑出了微不足道的一点点钱。然而，当李自成打进北京城，崇祯皇帝自杀殉国。明朝灭亡之后，李自成将这些王公贵族抓做人质，让他的家人交钱赎人，居然搜刮出了上千万两白银。所以政府是由官员组成的，而官员的个人利益很多时候，特别是在极端情况下，是要高于政府利益的。所以指望政府能够积极有效的应对危机环境从逻辑上来是说不通的。

另一方面，即便这些官员们达成了共识，认为干预和救市政策是必须采取的。因为官僚机构天生的低效运作，需要不停的开会批文流转，然后再下达到各级政府，等真正采取行动的时候，往往已经错过了最佳的时机。

比如就在这几天，大家期盼已久的房地产救市政策终于崭露头角了。一方面是进一步降低首付，降低房屋贷款利率刺激买家。另一方面，就是采取类似股市国家队的方式提出让政府接盘收购多余住房，作为廉租房和保障房，而这已经是在房价已经下跌了百分之三十，购房者心态已经完全扭转之后才发布的这一政策。在这个时候，出台并没有刺激更多买房者投入到这个市场上来，反而被许多卖房者看成了解套的机会，买房的人没有增多，但是二手房市场上挂牌的房子却增多了。也就是说，这个时候人心已经散了队伍不好带了。而且这个国家队进场收房的政策如何执行也很费脑筋。过去房地产是为地方政府提供正向收入的，也就是通过土地财政向地方政府输血的行业，现在不但不能输血，反而还需要政府放血来收买多余的住房。这一进一出造成的资金缺口，可是相当的大，如何解决呢？至少以我的智慧来说，除了敞开印钱之外，没有好的解决方案。

而且从古今中外的历史来看，政府救市也鲜有成功的案例。就因为在官僚之间，总是争吵不休，且很难定夺方案。二零零八年的次贷危机是很大程度上后是因为美国财政部反复无常的救助方案导致的。一开始，贝尔斯登暴雷的时候，联邦政府救了。后来雷曼兄弟倒台的时候，他又没有救，而这彻底打破了市场的信心，引发了股市暴跌。这个时候他又来花更大的价钱来救市，但并没有阻止零八年金融危机的爆发。所以如今政府终于开始救房地产了，这件事情颇有点股市上利好出尽是利空的味道。拭目以待，看看结果如何吧。

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曾经红火的房地产如今凉凉，各大城市房价实际成交价相比高峰期下跌了30%左右。人们的观念也改变了，从以前认为房子是保值增值的投资品，到现在不愿出手买房，意识到买房有风险。某种意义上说，房子已成为一种投资品，其金融属性超过了实用属性。没有一种投资品只涨不跌，为何那么多人倾家荡产买房？原因或许有些搞笑，就是相信政府。房地产对中国经济太重要，一度贡献了GDP的20%左右，是支柱产业。房地产业繁荣带动地价上涨，成了地方政府主要收入来源。

人们对房地产的信心来源于政府，认为政府不会让房价下跌。听起来有道理，但这里有几个致命逻辑错误。首先政府不是实体，是由很多个人组成的虚拟实体，政府本身没有意识，只有组成它的个人有意识。政府不可能明白自身利益，房地产下跌确实打击经济、影响地方政府收入，但政府不会意识到这点。明朝末年李自成大军进北京，崇祯皇帝向朝廷官员筹军费，却没人响应，后来李自成打进城，抓了这些人当人质，搜刮了上千万两白银。政府是官员组成，官员个人利益可能高于政府利益，指望政府有效应对危机不可取。

另一方面，即使官员们达成共识要干预救市，官僚机构低效运作，政策传达到下级执行时可能错过最佳时机。最近期盼已久的房地产救市政策出台，包括降低首付和贷款利率刺激买家，以及政府收购多余住房作为保障房。但此时房价已下跌30%，市场情绪已转变，政策非但没刺激买家，还让卖家看到解套机会，二手房挂牌增多。政府进场收房如何执行也很费脑筋。房地产是地方政府收入来源，现在政府不仅不能收血，还得放血买房，资金缺口大，除非印钱，别无良方。从古今中外政府救市鲜有成功案例，因为官僚机构争论不休，很难及时定案。08年次贷危机很大程度因美财政部反复政策导致，先救贝尔斯登，后不救雷曼兄弟，打破市场信心，后来花更大价钱救市也没阻止危机爆发。如今政府救市，是利好还是利空？拭目以待。

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The once booming real estate is now completely cool. Real home prices in major cities are now at least 30% below their peak. This opens your mouth, and the concept of the good people has completely changed. From the previous belief that the house is a value preservation investment, housing prices will continue to rise, to now is not so willing to buy a house, to you they build now, people have finally realized that buying a house is not a steady investment, but a very high risk. Ok, but it's an investment, because the price of housing has far exceeded people's income level. In a sense, it is an investment product, its financial attributes have far exceeded its market practical attributes are supported. Then there is no such thing as an investment that can only go up and not down, which is almost a myth. Why are we all in this market when so many people have to break the bank, scrape together a down payment and empty the wallets of two generations? The reason may be a little funny to say, is that people really believe in political wealth. Because real estate is so important to China's economy, it seems that during the boom years, real estate contributed about 20 percent of China's GDP, which is a veritable pillar industry. So the property boom has driven up land prices and become a major source of revenue for local governments. So people's confidence in real estate actually comes from the government, and it won't let real estate fall, and this idea sounds very reasonable. But there are several fatal logical errors. First of all, the government is not an entity, it is composed of many, many individuals, it is an imaginary virtual entity, it does not actually have its own consciousness, only the composition of each person has their own consciousness. So it is impossible for the government to understand its own interests. It is true that a property slump would deal a big blow to the economy, destroying sources of local government revenue. But the government is not a living thing, and he will not realize it. A very extreme example is Li Zicheng's army marching towards Beijing at the end of the Ming Dynasty. The Chongzhen emperor summoned his court members and relatives. It was these people who formed the core institutions of the Ming government and asked them to give their own family money to supplement the military expenditure and resist Li Zicheng's attack on Beijing, and the result was that not many people actively responded to the emperor's call, and only a negligible amount of money was raised. However, when American Li Zicheng entered Beijing, Emperor Chongzhen committed suicide. After the fall of the Ming Dynasty, Li Zicheng took these princes and nobles as hostages and asked his family to pay for the silver, which actually extracted tens of millions of taels of silver. Therefore, the government is made up of officials, and the personal interests of officials are often higher than the interests of the government, especially under extreme circumstances. So it doesn't make sense to expect the government to respond positively and effectively to the crisis environment. It doesn't make sense logically. On the other hand, even though these officials agree that intervention and bail-outs are necessary. Because of the inherent inefficiency of bureaucracies, which require endless meetings to pass documents, and then down to all levels of government, the best time for real action is often missed. For example, in the past few days, the long-awaited real estate rescue policy has finally come to the fore. On the one hand, further lower down payments and lower mortgage interest rates stimulate buyers. On the other hand, it is similar to the way of the national stock market team to propose that the government should take over the acquisition of surplus housing as low-rent and social housing, and this is already after the housing price has fallen by 30%, and there is no mentality, and this policy has been completely reversed. At this time, the introduction did not stimulate more buyers to invest in this market, but was regarded by many sellers as an opportunity to understand the set, the number of buyers did not increase, but the number of houses listed on the second-hand housing market has increased. That is to say, this time the heart has been scattered, the bad loan. Moreover, the policy of the national team entering the housing collection is also very difficult to implement. This country's real estate is to provide positive income for local governments, that is, through land finance to local governments to write blood industry, now not only can not blood transfusion, but also need the government to bleed blood to buy excess housing. This money in and out of the gap in the earth house, but quite large, how to solve it? At least in my wisdom, there is no good solution other than open printing money. Moreover, from the historical point of view of ancient and modern, there are few successful cases of government in the city. Because they're always bureaucrats, they're always bickering, and it's hard to price schemes. The subprime crisis of 2008 was caused in large part by the US Treasury's capricious six packages. In the beginning, when Bear Stearns thundered, the federal government bailed it out. Then, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, he failed to save it, shattering market confidence and triggering a stock market crash. At this time, he came back to spend more money to rescue the market, but it did not prevent the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. So now that the government has finally begun to rescue the real estate market, this matter will have a bit of a positive stock market, the assessment is full of bearish taste, we have to wait and see how the result.