比特币跌破六万美元，牛市结束了吗？

说说比特币的行情吧。 这一轮比特币创新高以来，行情就进入了疲态。不过按照以往历史。比特币每一年的新高，都会让前一轮的顶峰，相形见绌。而这次顶峰也就7万多美元，离上次的顶峰64000美元相比，基本上就是同一水平，所以刻舟求剑的讲，个人行情应该还没有结束。

不过现在看一看推特等自媒体上的言论。已经是悲观情绪居多了，特别是昨天，4月30日是月底。也就是喜欢看图表的交易人士，非常看重的4月份月线最终成型的是后悔了。按照技术分析的原则，昨天4月份。收官的月线是一根大阴线，而且将3月份的阳线全部都吞了进去。这是非常糟糕的技术形态，意味着下跌的开始，甚至是牛市的结束。而就在刚刚，打开交易软件看了一下，今天确实还是在继续下跌而且突破了六万美元的整数关口。在五万九千多美元的地方交易。

难道比特币的这轮牛市就这样草草的结束了吗？首先说说我的看法吧，我对技术分析这类方法不是很感冒。各种各样的指标五花八门。K线排列呀，均线交叉之类的种类太多了。不管什么样的行情都能找到一个指标来解释，而这个指标碰到其他的行情却又完全不起作用。总的来说，技术分析。还是没有真正找到与市场价格波动有因果关系的原因。比如前面说到的4月的月线阴线吃掉了3月的月线阳线。其实月线的排练不过是一个历法上的巧合而已。月份的划分是按照月亮绕地球公转的周期确定的，难道说比特币的价格，实际上是受月亮的影响？

我认为一个影响比特币市场价格的重要因素，其实就是美联储的货币政策对美元的供应量造成的影响。也就是所谓的宏观经济。这个应该说是确定有因果关系的。比特币这轮下跌和美股的下跌原因应该是高度一致的就是。一季度美国的经济数据比较糟糕，特别是通胀开始抬头，使得今年本来在计划中的降息看起来要泡汤了。

不过。这个经济数据。真的就一定是负面的吗？未必。数据透露的信息是通胀回潮。通胀的升高。对于总量固定的比特币来说，其实是利好。而且现在的。美国特权阶层也是很不要脸的。因为你注意看最近的新闻就会发现。他们衡量通胀的。指标已经悄悄的换成了一个新的名词好像是叫bce，而不是我们耳熟能详的CPI。而这个新指标实际上就是剥离了那些价格上涨速度快的商品。让通胀看上去更小。为美联储降息，提供理论和证据支持支持。即便是这样一个经过粉饰的数据都盖不住通胀回潮的表象，那实际上的通货膨胀速度有多快，可想而知了。

另一方面也就是从炒股人士是经常提到的“庄家”的视角来看。现阶段不得不承认，比特币虽然是一个去中心化的资产。但是持有比特币的人还是相当集中的，比如人们常说的各种大鲸鱼，而现在随着比特币期货和比特币ETF的批准。许多大型机构也进入了这个市场。而他们是可以被视作这个市场中的大庄家的。庄家通过操纵市场获利。简单来说也就是两个步骤，吸筹和派发。而要将数量庞大的比特币筹码派发给散户。必然是要在市场持续高涨的时候，虽然现在比特币创了新高，但明显感觉到。散户还没有大量的入场。市场情绪并不是非常的热烈。如果这个时候牛市就结束了，似乎大庄家们好像根本就没有赚到钱了。所以不管从哪个角度来看。这轮牛市应该还没有到结束的时候，所谓一些技术分析上的趋势迹象，不过是一些噪声而已。

当然以上是个人看法，不作为投资建议。

---

Let's talk about Bitcoin. Come on Garden. This round of new highs next door has entered a state of fatigue. But as always. History. Bitcoin's new highs every year dwarf the peaks of the previous round. And this time the peak is more than 70,000 US dollars, and I also play 4,000 US dollars at your peak, which is basically the same level, so the personal market should not be over yet. But now take a look at the comments on Twitter and other self-media. It already is. Pessimism prevails, especially yesterday, April 30 is the end of the month. You just love to watch. Chart traders, very important, April month finally formed is regretted. According to the principles of technical analysis, yesterday April. The closing monthly candlestick is a long black candlestick, and it swallows all the positive candlesticks in March. This is very bad. A technical pattern means the beginning of a decline, or even the end of a pass. And just now, I opened it, and the trading software took a look, and it will indeed continue to fall and break through tomorrow. Sixty thousand dollars, round number mark. In the place of nineteen thousand, more than a dollar. Trade. Is this the end of this bull run in Bitcoin? First of all, let me tell you my opinion, I am not very interested in technical analysis. There are 528 doors of various indicators. There are too many types of black lines and black line crossings. No matter what kind of market, you can find an indicator to explain it, and this indicator does not work at all when it encounters other markets. In general, technical analysis. Still haven't really found it. Causes that have a causal relationship with market price fluctuations. For example, in the month of April mentioned earlier, the monthly line of April is eaten by the negative line, and the monthly line of March is yang. In fact, the rehearsal of the monthly line is just a legislative coincidence. The division in February is appropriate. The moon revolves around the earth. The period is determined, and the price of bitcoin is actually affected by the moon. I think one of the most important factors that affects the price in the market next door is, actually. The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the supply of the dollar. This is also known as macroscopic. Arouse. This should be said to be certain that there is a causal relationship. The reason for this round of decline of Bitcoin and the decline of U.S. stocks should be highly consistent. Economic data from the United States for the first quarter. Worse than ever, especially. Public Ledger. began to raise its head, making what was originally planned for this year, originally in the plan. Jiangxi looks like it's going to be in the soup. But. This economic data. Does it really have to be negative? Not necessarily. The message of the data is a resurgence in inflation. Rising inflation. For a fixed amount of Bitcoin, it is actually good. And now. The privileged class in the United States is also very shameless. Because if you pay attention to the latest news, you'll find out. They measure inflation. The indicators have been quietly replaced. A new term seems to be called BCE, rather than the familiar CPU. And this new indicator is actually stripping away the prices, the rate of growth, the commodities sold. Make inflation look smaller. Cut interest rates for the Federal Reserve. Offer. Theoretical and evidence-backed up. Even if it's just one thing. Whitewashed data can't cover it. U.S. inflation is. I don't see beauty, I'm inflationary back. On the surface, you can imagine how fast the actual stockpiling expands. On the other hand, that is, from. Archaeologists are often mentioned. The way in which clothing bookmakers manipulate the market, from a point of view. At this stage, we have to admit that Bitcoin is a decentralized asset. But the people of Wo Bitcoin are still quite concentrated, such as the various big whales that people often say, and now with comparable futures comparable ETFs. Approval. Many large institutions. Also entered this market. And they can be considered the big dealers in this market. Market makers make a profit by manipulating the market. To put it simply, it is two steps, collecting chips and distributing. There will also be a huge number of them. Bitcoin chips are distributed to retail investors. Since it is to continue to rise in the market. Although Bitcoin has now hit new highs, it is clearly felt. Retail investors haven't had a lot of entry yet. Market sentiment is not very enthusiastic. If the bull market is over at this time, it seems that the big expert door. It doesn't seem to be making any money at all. So no matter which way you look at it. This round of bull market should not yet be over, the so-called technical analysis. The signs of engagement are nothing more than some noise.

Of course, the above is a personal opinion and is not intended as investment advice.