中东局势最新解析：以色列军事行动遭遇内外部掣肘

今天来聊聊国际新闻，重点关注中东局势。以色列和黎巴嫩真主党的冲突，在初期阶段展现了一系列精彩的，令人眼花缭乱骚操作，比如精准远程引爆传呼机和连续斩首黎巴嫩真主党高层等手段。但随后，冲突进入了硬碰硬的地面战斗阶段，也印证了先前的预料。

以色列的军事行动逐渐显露出了常规战争中的残酷与丑陋一面。开战之初那些令人眼前一亮的精彩战术操作逐渐消失，取而代之的是持续不断的士兵伤亡和对平民村庄房屋的无差别破坏。甚至位于战线后方、防守战略要地的戈兰高地的以军精锐——戈兰尼旅店基地也被真主党的无人机偷袭得手。以色列在加沙地区与实力相对较弱的哈马斯作战已陷入战争泥潭，面对实力更强的真主党，形势更是不容乐观。

虽然不得不承认以色列在情报以及电子战方面具有惊人的能力，但在常规部队方面，由于长期的备战战略导致其军队结构官僚化、臃肿化。中东地区的这些抗击组织，包括基地组织、伊斯兰国等恐怖组织，已经适应了斩首打击，其组织形态也随之演化。真主党则通过去中心化与下放权力，让基层组织领导人拥有更大的自主权。他们更倾向于将部队保持在一个精干的，合理的规模范围内，以避免资源浪费，否则他们浪费的是自己的资源。因此从组织角度来说，以色列国防军的地面部队并不占优势。

以色列要想从这场旷日持久的战争中解套，唯一方法就是将美国拉下水，引发美国和伊朗的直接冲突。10月1日，伊朗向以色列发射了上百枚导弹进行报复，其中很多突破了以色列的导弹防御系统。向来睚眦必报的以色列迟迟没有发动反击，显然其背后正在紧锣密鼓地进行准备。自去年10月7日哈马斯突袭以色列以来，以色列和伊朗之间的报复与反报复已经进行了数轮，且呈现升级态势。如果以色列这次的报复攻击超出预期规模，必将招致伊朗更大规模的回击，整个局势正如漩涡般不断扩大。

就在此时，以色列准备报复伊朗的行动计划被泄露，泄露源竟是美国五角大楼。这种泄密行为存在多种可能性：一种是情报机构内部同情巴勒斯坦的人士揭露以色列的军事计划，阻止以色列意图扩大战争。在美国当前的社会舆论环境下，同情巴勒斯坦的人确实不在少数。另一种可能是拜登政府故意泄露，意图阻止以色列的进一步军事行动，以免将美国卷入战争，这种可能性较大。

虽然支持以色列是美国历届政府的一贯做法，但今年恰逢大选年，加上在年轻人特别是大学生中，同情巴勒斯坦的群体庞大，而且近年来美国也接收了大量的穆斯林移民。这些人本来都支持民主党的铁票仓，但因为以色列在加沙的军事行动造成的破坏和给巴勒斯坦人带来的巨大灾难，他们今年都可能放弃支持民主党。即便如此，拜登政府也难以约束内塔尼亚胡，因为内塔尼亚胡政府同样面临倒台的风险。通过泄密手段阻止以色列扩大战争似乎成为无奈之举。

观察泄密责任人是否被严惩就能得出结论：去年乌克兰发动扎波罗热大反攻之前，五角大楼曾泄露乌克兰的反攻计划，由于支持乌克兰是民主党政府的基本国策，泄密者很快被找出并逮捕。如果这次泄密的责任人迟迟没有浮出水面，基本就可以认为是拜登政府有意为之了。

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Some international news today, with a focus on the Middle East. The early stages of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon featured a dazzling array of maneuvers, such as the precise detonation of pagers and the serial beheadings of senior Hezbollah officials. But then the conflict moved into a hard-fought ground battle, as had been expected.

Israel's military campaign has gradually revealed the cruelty and ugliness of conventional warfare. The tactical brilliance of the early days of the war faded, to be replaced by a steady flow of soldier casualties and indiscriminate destruction of civilian village houses. Even the Golani Hotel base, an elite Israeli military base in the strategically defended Golan Heights behind the front lines, was hit by Hezbollah drones. Israel is already at war with the weaker Hamas in Gaza, and the stronger Hizbullah in particular.

While it is undeniable that Israel has impressive capabilities in intelligence and electronic warfare, in conventional forces it has bureaucratized and bloated its military structure as a result of a long-term readiness strategy. These fighting groups in the Middle East, including al Qaeda, Islamic State and other terrorist groups, have adapted to beheading attacks, and their organizational forms have evolved accordingly. Hizbullah, by decentralizing and decentralizing power, gives grassroots leaders greater autonomy. They prefer to keep their forces within a lean, reasonable size range to avoid wasting resources that would otherwise be their own. Thus, from an organizational point of view, the IDF ground forces are not superior.

The only way for Israel to extricate itself from this protracted war is to bring the United States into direct conflict with Iran. On October 1, Iran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles at Israel, many of which breached Israeli missile defences. Israel, always vengeful, has been slow to launch a counterattack, and it is clear that preparations are being made behind it. Since the Hamas raid on Israel on October 7 last year, there have been several rounds of retaliation and counter-retaliation between Israel and Iran, and it is showing an escalation. If Israel's retaliatory attack exceeds the expected scale, it will inevitably lead to a larger Iranian response, and the whole situation will continue to expand as a whirlpool.

At that moment, Israel's plan of action to retaliate against Iran was leaked, and the source of the leak was actually the Pentagon. There are a number of possibilities for such leaks: One is for Palestinian sympathizers within the intelligence community to reveal Israeli military plans and prevent Israel from attempting to expand the war. In the current public opinion environment in the United States, there are indeed many people who sympathize with the Palestinians. Another possibility, more likely, is that the Biden administration deliberately leaked it in order to prevent further Israeli military action that would draw the United States into the war.

While support for Israel has been a consistent practice for successive US administrations, this is an election year, there is huge sympathy for the Palestinians among young people, especially college students, and the US has received a large number of Muslim immigrants in recent years. All of them, once solid Democratic voters, are likely to abandon their support this year because of the devastation caused by Israel's military operation in Gaza and the devastation inflicted on Palestinians. Even so, it would be difficult for a Biden administration to restrain Netanyahu, whose government is also at risk of collapse. The use of leaks to prevent Israel from expanding the war seems hopeless.

Looking at whether those responsible for the leaks have been severely punished can be concluded: the Pentagon leaked the Ukrainian counteroffensive plan before Ukraine launched the Zaporozha counteroffensive last year, and because supporting Ukraine is a basic national policy of the Democratic government, the leaker was quickly identified and arrested. If the person responsible for this leak has been slow to surface, it can be basically assumed that the Biden administration was intentional.