Bond Bubble - Alan Greenspan
Steemit friends Alan Greenspan who is retired but still top notch has some things to say about the future!
Source: nl.wikipedia.org
As most people as old as I am know, Alan Greenspan used to be the head of the Federal Reserve before it went nuts. A free market economist, his predictions were always right on and rarely could he get Congress to actually do what he said. Maybe they did not understand it but when he was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the economy was good in the United States and he knows what he is talking about.
Bond Bubble
The interest rates on bonds, which are the Treasury Bonds the government prints in order to allow it to print money under their rules do not pay any interest or so low of a rate that it is near zero. Many economists and financial observers have said that the Federal Reserve which is leveraged over 250 (Two Hundred and Fifty) to ONE has created a bubble in the bonds that is about to burst.
Persons who have preached this for the longest time are firms like Stansberry Research and Ron Paul. There are of course many more including myself that see the bubble and have seen it for the longest time. Throughout the Obama Administration and after 9/11/2001 in the Bush Administration because of the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria not to mention the continuous black hole of North Korea plus the collapse of the stock market when the Twin Towers fell and the destruction of the central computer systems that ran the stock market the government decided it had to print money to keep the economy going.
7.1 Trillion dollars were instantly lost on 9/11 and recovering them has been difficult. Oddly, the economists did not subtract the lost money as they should have and I argued for the longest time. This money that disappeared really has disappeared and was never taken off the accounting books in case it showed up. This is a big mistake.
Alan Greenspan has joined the voices of the economists and financial analysts that see that too much money without assets and too much regulation has occurred for the economy to recover. We have see this by the collapse of the retail sector.
It does not matter what sort of economic model one chooses, when goods cannot be brought to the market and sold, when manufacturers cannot make goods no taxes can be collected and the government prints even more money to cover its costs.
How bad is it really?
When President Trump declined to accept to be paid for the job of President of the United States - we all knew things were bad. Again, when Alan Greenspan speaks and says trouble is coming people should listen. Interest rates will grow high like they did in the middle of the eighties.
There has been a continued wage stagnation that has failed to keep up with the cost of inflation. Although inflation is very low and there would have been deflation in spite of the debt, government has not renegotiated its contracts due to the lowering of the price of oil. Instead, in places like California a tax has been placed on end products of oil. This tax takes away from the discretionary spending power of people and makes it harder for the economy to continue to recover. Less can be bought by consumers and it shows in the collapse of the retail sector.
Stocks and Hyperinflation
Generally, the stock market losses value during hyperinflation but it can be hard to recognize because it will increase in value. The thing is, dollars are worth less even though the value of the stocks rise for long time periods they rarely keep pace with inflation and often pay no dividends or dividends that do not keep up with inflation. The good news is that if you own stock, it can often split several times during inflationary periods and in that way, you keep up with inflation as long as the company survives.
Inflation Will Hit
I know that people think that socialism and a controlled economy will save them but look at Venezuela. That philosophy never saved anyone. High inflation is expected to occur and soon. Interest rates will skyrocket.
If you have an adjustable mortgage and there is no real cap - change to a fixed mortgage now. This recommendation is for both business and private assets. If you can, pay off your credit card debt.
Bitcoin and Steem, What Will Happen?
During an inflationary cycle, the price of Bitcoin will rise dramatically, if it survives the competing changes to Bitcoin. Steem will be the same way. Should the wallets get fixed and now they are broken, Steem will rocket but will it keep up with inflation?
Today, we see that many Bitcoin exchanges have stopped the transfers and withdrawals of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is effectively shut down as a mechanism of transfer, purchase, though one can still trade it within an exchange. Rates to lend Bitcoin have soared passed two percent at Poloniex. Expect the same in fiat or cash currency markets.
Steem Must Be Tied To USDT!
Steem and Steem Dollars will need to be moved from Bitcoin as a measure of their value and/ or added to USDT in order for Steem and Steem Dollars to continue. Again, at poloniex, Steem is tied to Ethereum as well as Bitcoin. Steem Dollars are not.
Steem Could Be Purchased By Fiat Currency!
Another solution would be that Steem and SBD could be purchased directly with Fiat Currencies or Dollars, Euros, Yuan, and Rubles. The problem with that is there are now numerous regulatory laws in place at exchanges where cryptocurrencies will be bought with cash. These laws prevent money laundering and terrorism. Also, when you buy and sell with cash, eventually taxes come into play and content authors have historically been independent people in just about all countries on the Earth for nearly ever. That means whatever they make they are responsible for their own taxes without something like a W-2 and use 1099, or independent income forms for reporting income.
Alexander Vinnick and Pals
For those of you who do not know, one of the reasons Bitcoin is locked up is not because Vinnick, the BTC-e genius, is a hacker as much as the fact that he ran numerous investment scams which were ponzi schemes. He would take people's bitcoin and claim to trade on the margin giving a high rate of return and charge a portion of a person's Bitcoin but it was a ponzi scheme all five hundred or a thousand of them and he made a fortune. In just about every government in the world there are nerds in technical positions and they got scammed by Vinnick, yes, as one watches that soap opera we see that even Russian geeks were scammed by Vinnick.
As just about every nerd From China to Europe to South America to Africa to the United States knows, he conducted these scams aboard his yacht while sailing up and down the coast of western Africa and around the Mediterranean. It was only a matter of time before he stepped into port and was arrested.
Will Inflation Destroy Everything - Will You Survive?
Probably but it isn't going to be any fun. In the United States, hyperinflation of the dollar has occurred many times. During the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the Civil War, and after World War II, the Eighties and Nineties hyperinflation was experienced by Americans. What's new?
Be prepared for 512 or 1024 bit multiprocessor computers to calculate your paycheck and your house payment. The Germans know all about this prior to World War II when you had to use a wheelbarrow to buy bread.
Many people seem to think that historically, the rich get richer when hyperinflation occurs. Usually, they lose their asses and everything they own. The poor and the everyday people - What's New?
Countries tend to disappear during hyperinflation but ours will most likely be here for a while longer.
The Psyche Asteroid
I have written about this discovery by NASA. If you go through and look at some of my past posts, technically, the United States owns the moon and the Psyche Asteroid, which makes an awesome federal Reserve hard currency asset. I have argued for hard currency Asteroid backed dollars based on the 10,000 quadrillion dollar Psyche Asteroid but so far there are no takers. I'll bet though, as soon as a spacecraft actually touches it - it will happen because technically and according to world law of the claiming of new lands, somebody has to claim it, like the Moon, for a country.
You might think this is crazy but it is not. There is no reason why the United States could not return to hard currency Psyche Asteroid backed dollars. This will solve all money problems. So, will we survive? Will it be tough? It's up to God.
Meanwhile, until they actually decide to use asteroid backed dollars buckle your chin strap on your kevlar helmet because it is going to be a roller coaster ride through hell.
It Just Might Be A Great Opportunity For Cartographers
Map makers will have new maps to make and be in demand again.
Steemit will survive if it starts to sell advertising within each post and become a world force in social media. Will it? We hope so because any thought that Steemit is a ponzi scheme will be immediately debunked. Until then, Steem on and
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So you know, Poloniex has the BTC, Bitcoin wallet back up and running and there are deposits and withdrawals. On Poloniex BTC is running and the interest rate has dropped to .1 to .15 in lending as soon as the wallet was back up.
I have not heard if the current fork went into effect but if there are any problems the wallet will shut down again
Nice to see Greeny catching up! We saw the writing on the wall and called for a Fall 2017 bond crash back in March. LINK: https://americafirstpatriots.com/bold-prediction-market-collapse-fall-2017/
Well, there are those who have been talking about this since 2008
Mate that was a fantastic read. Scary but very true. I wonder if the cryptos will be incorporated as a solution or as you said they may go to shit too. I hope for the future of my kids the world starts working together. But I think that's wishful thinking
Cheers
@ch00fy
;-)
great post! Zero hedge stuff but most are the haters if Allan greenspan.. he was pumping gold a year back.