Have we hit bottom in Bitcoin? - Personal opinion
Hello friends of Project HOPE, I hope you are all having a good weekend, I assume with some joy to see that the crypto market is recovering slightly. But despite seeing some signs of growth, I think it's worth asking: Have we hit bottom in Bitcoin?
It is evident that in recent days, the Bitcoin market has seen significant movements that have left many investors asking this question. It arises in the midst of a context of great volatility, marked by the recent BTC Halving event and a significant correction in its price, followed by a recovery in the last few hours.
However, regardless of what we see or analyze, it is important to remember that in the world of cryptocurrencies, no one can predict with certainty what will happen in the future.
The Bitcoin Halving, which occurred recently, is a scheduled event that halves miners' reward for validating transactions on the network. Historically, this event has been associated with an increase in the price of Bitcoin, as the reduction in supply tends to generate greater demand. However, the correlation between Halving and the price of Bitcoin is not a fixed rule, and in the past we have seen that the market can react unpredictably. Even with big drops after the halving.
Despite this background, the recent correction in the price of Bitcoin has been a cause of concern for many investors, as the cryptocurrency lost a significant portion of its value in a short period of time.
This correction has led some to speculate that the market could be at an inflection point, where the price of Bitcoin could be bottoming out before starting a new bull cycle. However, it is important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and sharp movements are part of its nature.
The recent recovery in the price of Bitcoin, which began yesterday after the US unemployment and NFP data, has been received with optimism by many investors, as it suggests that the market could be finding a solid support level after correction.
However, it is important to note that a single uptrend is not enough to determine if we have bottomed in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable and can quickly swing in either direction. Even, looking at it technically, there is important support in the 52,000 area, which implies that despite being right now above 63k, it does not mean that we will go up immediately, everything is subject to changes.
Therefore, any predictions about its future should be taken with caution. The only thing that is certain in this market is uncertainty, and as an investor one must be prepared to face any scenario that arises, I assume you will agree with me on this aspect.
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hi there @josevas217
Glad to be able to learn your view on current market situation.
In my opinion there were few reasons why current market crashed:
a) high inflation readings caused some selling pressure since investors had to adjust their expectations towards FEDs future actions
(this is already priced-in)
b) uncertainty related to war between iran vs israel
(any action of escalation will turn markets red and cause another crash)
c) speculations and market manipulation
It is hard to disagree that lately we experienced few 'manufactured crashes'. Rapid sale of BTC which would aim only to trigger liquidations of those who overleveraged themselfs.
In my opinion we are pretty much DONE HERE. Market experienced few mass liquidations lately and leverage traders were wiped out quite clean. Now I would expect another "good times" to come soon. To bring more "fresh blood" which later will serve as a "lunch and dinner" for market makers and those who manipulate it on such a massive scale.
Even if we would experience another flash crash and BTC would go below 55k then those are short-term events. Events aiming to shake out BTC from newbies who play with leverage. With each such a shake-out there is less of those newbies left. So cycle will start again.
I'm myself mosly worried about impact of conflict between Isreal and Iran. Hope this will not escalate. After all, there is so many powerful people who want that war ....
That would bring huge level of uncertainty which would last for many moths ....
Cheers, Piotr
Hello @crypto.piotr, certainly, the liquidations were very strong these last few days. And that is part of the game in this market, strong hands dominate, they play with the market and when volatility is high, it is best to wait and not turn into liquidity.
I believe that the phenomenon of war is a factor that is becoming worse and more latent. Currently NATO, primarily France, are challenging Russia, on the other hand, the problem between Israel and Palestine is getting worse and worse, and it only seems to want to get more and more complicated.
If a larger scale war is activated, what will increase the price will be gold, oil, but risky assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could collapse. Thanks for comment.