Bitcoin Hashrate dropping post Halving

in GEMS5 years ago

Bitcoin is seeing a notable dip in its total hashrate post halving...

In a move that shouldn't really be surprising to anyone, the total hashrate for bitcoin is dropping after its latest halving.

After climbing to record highs going into the halving, we are already seeing a dip on the other side of it.

Check it out:

(Source: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate)

This shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone...

It's been talked about numerous times in the past that the halving is bullish for everyone, except miners.

Especially in the short term.

In the short term they are going to see their revenue decline significantly.

Some miners will be forced out all together, which in turn will lower the difficultly level and make it easier for the remaining miners to turn a profit.

What is a surprise, so far, is that the decline in hashrate is actually LESS than what some were expecting...

Jan Capek of Slush told Decrypt that this was expected, saying:

“Yes, this was expected. Estimates varied between 10-25% dropping off as old-gen hardware became unprofitable, so the ~15% drop we've seen so far was actually on the lower side.”

On the lower side you say?

Denis Rusinovich, who runs a 80 MW mining operation in Kazakhstan also said he expected a bit more decline as well...

“It was generally expected by miners that overall drop will be around 30%, but clearly one major driver that no one could expect is BTC price level. That gave additional support for less efficient miners to stay afloat the last two weeks."

(Source: https://decrypt.co/28763/bitcoin-hashrate-is-tanking-nobody-panic)

Not to mention we saw huge drops in BCH, BSV, and LTC in both total hashrate and price immediately following their halving events.

We may have to wait a bit to fully see the effects...

It may be too soon just yet to form any kind of conclusions on the total hashrate decline.

The current decline is likely not all the way factored in yet as the hashrate metric is a lagging indicator that is calculated at the end of each day based on averages...

(Source: https://twitter.com/matt_odell/status/1260547941867159553)

Which means it will really take a few weeks to see the full effects of the halving on the total hashrate.

So, while some may be surprised at the smaller than expected drop, they may also just need to wait a bit more to see if that 30% number does indeed play out.

Though, if the price of bitcoin stays up where it is or continues to go higher, the drop in hashrate will likely be minimal.

Which is pretty impressive considering how the rewards per block were just sliced in half.

It really goes to show exactly how robust and resilient the total entire network is right now.

Not to mention that it settles as much money as the largest payment processors in the world, was launched with no seed funding or venture capital, has never gone public, never had a CEO, and has only existed for roughly 12 years or so...

Yea, it's impressive.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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As a coin developer myself, I know that effective network hash rate depends on block difficulty and if adjusting block difficulty takes long time, hash rate won't adjust immediately.

Effective network hash rate must always be higher than block difficulty divided by solve time.

Only variable here is the solve time for each block, everything else is constant.

I think also the block times will be longer for a while which should make getting transactions in difficult on BTC for a while. Fortunately, there are altcoins.

Dear @jrcornel

Solid read. It's clear that we're sharing similar interests towards blockchain technology and crypto.

Perhaps you would like to check out this contest / challenge done by my good friend hardaeborla: "What is Bitcoin Halving ?".

Enjoy your weekend,
Yours, Piotr