Bitcoin takes roughly 3 weeks to bottom and then another 4 weeks to make new highs during a pullback in a bull market

Based on data from the 2017 bull market we learned that bitcoin takes roughly 3 weeks to bottom during a pullback.

What's more, we also learned that bitcoin tends to pullback by roughly 30% when it does pullback.

And finally, we learned that bitcoin tends to rally by over 100% from those lows when it does recover before seeing its next pullback.

So, combined, we learned that bitcoin tends to drop by roughly 30%, take roughly 3 weeks to bottom out, and then from there it tends to rally by over 100%.

More on that can be seen in the two posts and charts below:

(Source: https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/based-on-history-we-should-probably-trust-this-break-out-in-bitcoin)

(Source: https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/in-2017-the-average-pullback-during-the-bull-market-was-roughly-3-weeks-long)

By itself that is incredible useful information, but there is still one bit of information that would be useful to have as well...

And that is how long it takes the price to make new highs after it bottoms out during a pullback.

Bitcoin likely to make new highs again by early March if it follows past patterns...

If bitcoin were to emulate the past patterns we saw in 2017, we should expect to see bitcoin make new highs again in a matter of weeks.

Based on the weekly charts above, we can see that from the pullback lows it takes this many weeks to break those previous highs (respectively):

6 weeks
6 weeks
3 weeks
4 weeks
2 weeks

When we add those numbers up and divide them by the number of pullbacks (5), we get 4.2 weeks on average from the lows to new highs.

So, once bitcoin bottoms during a pullback, it takes 4.2 weeks on average before it breaks new highs again.

The interesting thing about those numbers is that the longer periods to new highs were seen at the start of the bull market, which is where we are now, and those periods tended to get shorter as we got closer to the ultimate peak.

If we use that same model and overlay it with today's price action we can expect bitcoin to make new highs somewhere around Feb. 22nd (on average) if it did indeed bottom on January 21st.

However, keep in mind that the first couple pullbacks both took roughly 6 weeks from the bottom to ultimately make new highs.

If we follow more along with that pattern, we would expect to see bitcoin make new highs in early March, again if January 21st was indeed the low.

So, there you have it.

We bottomed on January 21st at $29k. From there we should see new highs again by early March, and the price should more than double that $29k price before we see its next 30% pullback.

There's your playbook. ;)

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc