Dollar is tired of talks. Forecast as of 18.07.2022

liteforex (43)in #usd • 4 years ago

Weekly US dollar fundamental forecast
The euro prospects look gloomy. The EURUSD hit a 20-year high and the situation looks terrible. Russia isto turn off gas permanently off gas, Italy is about to plunge into political chaos, and the ECB’s monetary tightening cycle due to a looming recession will be both short and shallow. However, many negative factors have already been priced in the euro quotes, as well as the positive ones in the US dollar price. Will there be a correction up?

Investors are focused on the announcements of the Fed’s officials. The problem is that there are too many talks. After the publication of the US inflation data, several FOMC officials suggested a 100-basis-point rate hike in July, the derivatives market increased the chance of such an outcome by 90%. At the end of last week, the chance was down to 30%, as the University of Michigan’s survey showed that consumers expect inflation to run at the lowest level since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and the Fed’s policymakers didn’t sound that aggressive. The US stock indexes have been up and the greenback has been down.

Dynamics of recession likelihood

4 years ago in #usd by liteforex (43)

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