Fractures in the Gulf: Rising Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and UAE Amid Yemen's Chaos
Fractures in the Gulf: Rising Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and UAE Amid Yemen's Chaos
As 2025 draws to a close, the Middle East remains a powder keg of overlapping conflicts, with a surprising new flashpoint emerging in Yemen: a deepening rift between longtime allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A viral post on X from December 30, 2025, by the account @warsurveillance claimed that "Saudi Arabia has issued a 24-hour ultimatum to the UAE, demanding the immediate withdrawal of mercenaries from Yemen, after Saudi strikes reportedly hit UAE vessels." The post, accompanied by a composite image showing a burning port scene alongside portraits of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), quickly garnered thousands of views and sparked speculation of an impending Gulf war.
Portraits of key figures: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (left) and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (right).
However, the claim appears overstated. Replies to the post and subsequent reporting indicate no direct Saudi ultimatum to the UAE government or strikes on Emirati vessels. Instead, tensions stem from competing interests in Yemen's fractured landscape. The Saudi-backed Yemeni presidential council demanded the withdrawal of UAE-linked forces within 24 hours, following airstrikes on positions held by UAE-supported groups in the southern port of Mukalla. The UAE announced it would voluntarily pull its remaining counterterrorism units from Yemen, denying allegations of arming separatists against Saudi interests.
This episode highlights diverging priorities in Yemen, where both Gulf powers intervened in 2015 against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia prioritizes a unified Yemen to secure its southern border, while the UAE has backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group controlling much of the south, including key oil fields and ports. Recent STC advances in eastern Yemen, including Hadramawt province, crossed Saudi "red lines," prompting Riyadh to accuse Abu Dhabi of threatening its security. The UAE rejected these claims, calling for restraint.
Despite the drama, analysts describe the rift as a flare-up in long-simmering competition rather than an open conflict. Both nations remain OPEC partners and U.S. allies, with shared interests in countering Iran. U.S. mediation, including calls between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gulf foreign ministers, helped de-escalate. No full-scale confrontation materialized by year's end.
Broader Middle East Conflicts in Late 2025
The Yemen tensions occur against a backdrop of exhaustion from prolonged wars. A fragile Gaza ceasefire holds uneasily, with sporadic violations killing hundreds since October. Israel continues operations in Lebanon and Syria, targeting Hezbollah remnants and preventing arms transfers. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have largely paused under ceasefire terms but remain a latent threat.
Illustrations of Houthi maritime threats in the Red Sea, a key driver of regional instability earlier in 2025.
Iran-Israel relations stay fraught, with Tehran rebuilding missile capabilities after a brief June war and issuing defiant rhetoric. U.S. President Trump has warned of consequences if Iran advances its nuclear or missile programs.
Maps depicting active conflict zones and proxy networks across the Middle East in 2025.
As the region enters 2026, fatigue from years of bloodshed offers slim hope for de-escalation, but proxy rivalries and unresolved grievances—like Yemen's division and Iran's ambitions—continue to fuel instability. The Saudi-UAE spat underscores how even allies can clash over spoils in a fragmented Middle East.