What's the worst that could happen?
My wife is scared. Me, not so much.
She is worried about us getting in over our heads with a renovation that we can't afford without taking a loan for it and then being unable to complete it. It is a legitimate concern for sure, but one that I am not so worried about, because as I figure it - we'll manage.
How I figure it is even if we can't complete the renovations quickly, we will have a roof overhead and the monthly costs will not be too different than they are now. What we will forgo is comfort and ease of living, as well as the emotional pain of failure. I think that last one is the biggest concern for my wife as if we get the loan, it comes with a level of confidence that the work will get completed. Without it, it becomes a little more uncertain.
The weird thing is that I think I should be scared too, yet seem to be much calmer than I suspected I would under these conditions. I know that I am no more confident of completion, but I do think that I am much better at handling uncertainty than I once was, as well as trusting in my own ability to survive. The reason I trust in my abilities is that I have a pretty good work ethic and while not everything pans out, I feel that I can work my way out of most situations adequately enough.
It does take a toll though and while 40 years of age, I feel both much younger and physically older simultaneously. Last night my wife was saying that we have the option of staying where we are and saving so that we can buy and do the renovations later, but how much later - when I am close to retirement?
The problem with that is we already know that the costs of our housing will increase in that time which makes saving harder, so by the time we can make a move, who knows what age I will be. There are a few couples in their late mid 70s who live in our building who give me the impression that they are still waiting for life to begin - after moving here in the 1970s. when it was built. A starter home that became the only home.
They have a roof over their heads too, but they do not seem happy and I think that I would rather take the risk now and have it fail and end up where they are later, than not take the risk and increase the likelihood by living life as they are now. Of course, you can be happy anywhere and under relatively poor conditions, but being happy after choosing the safe option and living a stagnant life I believe is harder.
It is kind of like that saying, it is better to have loved and lost, than to never have loved at all. Taking a few risks in life with the potential of wearing a few failures, might not only come with opportunity, but the life experiences associated might be valuable in themselves. Not only that, I do believe there is additional value in taking agency and making own decisions, even if they prove bad later.
And what if they work? Will it seem a stroke of brilliance, wisdom and skill? It will be interesting in five years to look back on this period of posts and see how accurate they are and if I still feel it was the right decision.
I actually think the same about Steem and while at the moment there is a lot of uncertainty, I think that five years from now the picture will be quite clear. Looking back from the future, will you be glad you bought, sad you bought, glad you passed or sad you passed? time will tell, but for me I can say that at least I participated the best I could, which could come with a write-off failure, or very large gains. I will be happy either way, as I know there is very little more I could have done to aim for accomplishing my personal goals.
Playing the best game possible is the only way to really know potential, and I think that in order to fulfill human potential, barriers needed to be crossed and fears need to be met in order to be overcome. If we never face our fears, we have no need to overcome them. And perhaps this is a fear of my own, where I do not want to look back on my life and recognize that I held myself back from trying because I was scared of being the potential for pain, especially if that pain is conceptual in source, like the sense of failure for not having enough money or worry about reputation based on what others may think.
I know that the challenges my family and I face are definitely first world issues and pale in comparison to many others, but we all live the life relative to our own experience, and that means that for us, this is important. To another, perhaps the risk is nothing, perhaps it is far too high.
I have to look at it from my negative mental position as normal and factor in, what is the worst that can happen and when that is considered with reasoning, it is only an economic loss. Yes, that could put a great deal of stress on other areas through knock-ons, but that is the case anyway. If we stay where we are we will slowly be bled dry, if we move we might end up in the same position or not much worse - but there is upside potential to be in a much better position.
I spoke about this in my last post, and in my opinion and while it has to be considered on a case by case basis, investing into low loss but high gain should take precedence over the comfort of the status quo. Again, this is something I believe Steem offers and if my investments here pay off in the next five years even to a mid-level, the concerns of the "housing crisis" I face today will seem silly. But, the learning experience of taking that risk will have value either way.
Risk management is an area I haven't really been good at in the past and barely considered which meant living on defaults. The default option for most of us is to play it safe, even if the risk of loss is low. I have played safe and here I am today - looking for risk.
What's the worst that can happen?
I have a few stories.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
There will always be a housing crisis, the markets will either be dried up, or over stocked, and only in equilibrium for a short time. Look at those homes that need renovating, updating, if they are safe to live in as-is and are not excessively costly utility price wise, then I would be buying.
Why? I've tried to keep up with the thought process you have been running through. I do not know if you or your wife were raised exclusively in homes/apartments with out you own back yard or own small piece of land, is there a safe place a fenced yard your daughter can go play, to be herself, to dig in the dirt, to make mud pies, to twirl around and around just having unadulterated childhood fun.
It is hard to get out of our own comfort zone, but when you start to think of others and their comfort zone, their needs, then sometimes it is a bit easier to deal with. For myself I can not imagine what it is like to grow up on concrete and asphalt, I have always had open fields close by, a fenced yard in most cases, and room to grow in mother nature, not just go and visit her at the local park with a bunch of possible virus contaminated people, or other people that mean to do harm to others.
Lots and lots of reasons to have your own home for your family.
This is what we are very likely going to do, reno loan or not.
I have lived in houses, apartments, townhouses, shared houses... never in a car long-term yet :D I am a country kid though, so I am not exactly useless with my hands and am pretty good at winging it.
the place we are looking at is great for our daughter and with the friends with kids so close, there is a good opportunity to get some space for my wife and I too. It is important, and something we struggle with where we are.
As said, I am pretty fearless on this one :)
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Is the cost of living in your current home really that high as in are the utilities and maintenance there really so expensive as to seriously eat into your ability to save?
In Finland, condominiums or row house apartments are owned through corporations called housing corporations. Each homeowner is a shareholder owning shares that entitle to possessing a certain unit. The governance structure is similar to any other type of corporation. A housing corporation may get loans for renovating its property. Now, from what you've told us earlier, much of your monthly fee must go towards paying off the renovation loans of your housing corporation. That is a form of equity building. It's not money down the drain. The property has been upgraded in major ways, which in turn means a higher resale value for each unit. The less the corporation owes to the bank, the more money the next owner will have to pay for your unit.
The problem is that the upgrades aren't well thought out for the future, so the building doesn't appear to have had value added. There are coming (yet to be announced) exterior upgrades that are another loan on top, but will not add that much value, especially if the people who have made the decisions the last twenty years, will make them for the next five. The worst of stake based voting :D
For the same monthly or not much more, we can get into a house and slowly renovate it to the point it will be 30% up in the next 3 years and move in ready for a family who can't get a reno loan. We can save, but we can also pay the same and instead of saving, put that money straight into renovations as we go. We will have the deposit plus some to get started on the renovations, then add continually to them each month.
It's hard to say without knowing what the upgrades were. Have units been sold in your building recently?
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If you think it will improve your quality of life, then go for it!! She will see in time that it was a good decision. No reason to not do something you want to, out of fear.
It will in many ways iprove, other ways - be a lot of work That's okay by me as I like working.
"Last night my wife was saying that we have the option of staying where we are and saving so that we can buy and do the renovations later"
I would follow the advice of your wife.
There is an old saying: If in doubt, don't! And from what you have written here, you most certainly do have some doubts about the decision you would like to make. Therefore I would postpone making the renovations until you can save up some money to make them. And remember this: If you are not able to save up the money to make the renovations, then thank God that you waited, because if you could not save the money to make the renovations, then you would not have had the money to make the loan payments either.
I didn't say I don't have doubts, I said I am not scared. Massive difference. Doubts drive for due diligence to be done, like an investor knowing what they are investing themselves into and what the conditions and risks are .
This will be the 4th property I will be buying, the first when I was 18 and a student. I am not scared from experience as I lost my first house due to costs associated with my mother's death from cancer just after I moved to the other side of the world. The financial recovery took a few years time before I could buy again and renovate, then I sold that for a profit so to buy again and renovate and we will sell this for a profit too.
Doubts are good. Doesn't mean they should freeze you in fear.
I'm not sure why you are asking for advice in a public forum when you seem to have already made up your mind. Are you just looking for people who will agree with you? I do not! As I said earlier, I would take your wife's advice, and wait.
In the title of this post, you asked: "What's the worst that could happen?"
My answer: You could lose everything, including your wife and your health.
Good luck!
The question was rhetorical.
That can happen in a thousand other ways too and the health part is halfway there.
You too!
Forgot to address this. I am not asking for anyone's advice, this is my process and I often share it with people. Perhaps one day, it will pay off my house ;D
Listen to your wife.
If I listened to her, we wouldn't have ever got married ;D
She's smart, I told you.
But on a serious note. The old building renovation is worst than the Pandora's box.
It's a bottomless money pit.
The house that Tweet built
https://twitter.com/tarazkp1/status/1222648336437694466
Yep! that's true my friend. "The world belongs to those who dare"
On other hand, I also understand your wife's legitimate concern. ;)
Why should you be scared?
I'm probably a bad person to listen to for anything serious as my only use for fear is as a warning to be more careful
If you make the decision to jump, why do you need the renos done immediately/quickly? Are the "needs work" houses you're looking in that bad?
Things like oil heating need to be changed as they are expensive to run, bad for the environment and has to happen for resale. that is about 20,000€.
Windows need to be done at some point as it is an old place and it can be minus 30 here. again, heating costs etc - 12-18k.
Bathrooms need to be done for several reasons. All surfaces and kitchen eventually. The expense is so high that it would take us 10 years to save for it. But, if we do it immediately the value of the house will increase 30% over what we would have paid all up and if in 5 years we move on, it will be a no-brainer to buy.
Owch yeh the heating and windows will definitely need to be done asap in your area. Kitchen and bathroom can wait if they're usable. Our kitchen and the other bathroom are still waiting, and the bathroom we redid would still probably be waiting if it hadn't tried to cave in on us.
If there is like here you're unlikely to move on in 5 years, we were supposed to have built up tonnes of equity by now and some developer was meant to have swooped in and paid a premium for the block of land (which is why zero non-essential work was done on the house, J was staunchly refusing to "overcapitalise" because we're zoned for units so the astute developer would have flattened the house and chucked 5-6 units on the land) and we were meant to have happily bought a nicer house on a hopefully similar sized block of land closer to the coast.
Cue manic laughter now as that so didn't work out at all.
On the bright side we're a fair way through our mortgage, and we kind of embedded into a lot of local community things so the kids and I don't really want to move now anyway.
Um moral of the story is if there is anything like here you're unlikely to be moving in 5 years, and as small will probably start getting more involved in activities and the like you may find that you really like wherever you are.
We aren't planning on moving, but we also don't want to live forever doing things and a bit at a time and then starting again fro the start 10 years later :D not that we would. However, What the plan is, is to be able to add enough value to it in the first phase of renovations so that we can get it reevaluated to get an extension for phase two, which would then complete it and add more value again.
The area is good, close to stuff including schools and shopping and there is a park across the road that Smallsteps can smoke at when she is a teen - though by then, she will need a loan to buy cigarettes anyway :)
We can live there comfortably for a long time I think.
Sounds like you got a plan, no wonder you're not scared ;D