Deep Dive into Geopolitical Conflicts - Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most protracted and contentious conflicts in the South Caucasus region. The dispute centers on Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. The conflict has deep historical roots, driven by territorial claims, ethnic identities, and geopolitical interests.

The origins of the conflict date back to the early 20th century, during the collapse of the Russian Empire and the establishment of Soviet rule. Following the Soviet takeover, Nagorno-Karabakh was placed under Azerbaijani jurisdiction as an autonomous oblast (region) in the 1920s, despite its majority Armenian population. This decision by Soviet authorities sowed the seeds of future discord, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan laid claim to the region.

The conflict remained largely dormant during the Soviet period, with tensions suppressed by centralized Soviet control. However, in the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union began to weaken, nationalist sentiments in both Armenia and Azerbaijan started to rise. In 1988, the regional parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to unify with Armenia, sparking protests and violence between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. As the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, the conflict erupted into a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over control of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The war, which lasted from 1991 to 1994, was marked by intense fighting, atrocities on both sides, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. By the time a Russian-brokered ceasefire was reached in 1994, Armenian forces had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as several surrounding Azerbaijani districts, creating a de facto Armenian-controlled enclave within Azerbaijan. The ceasefire left Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding territories under Armenian control, but it did not resolve the underlying issues, leading to a state of frozen conflict that persisted for decades.

Despite numerous attempts at mediation by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France, a lasting peace agreement remained elusive. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh continued to be a source of tension, with periodic flare-ups of violence along the line of contact. The unresolved nature of the conflict, combined with the lack of trust between the two sides, made the situation highly volatile.

In September 2020, the conflict reignited in the form of a large-scale war, the most intense since the 1990s. Over the course of six weeks, Azerbaijani forces, with significant military support from Turkey and the use of advanced drone technology, launched an offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding territories. The fighting resulted in thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. Ultimately, a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement was reached in November 2020, which led to significant territorial gains for Azerbaijan. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Armenia agreed to withdraw from several districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, while Russian peacekeepers were deployed to monitor the ceasefire and maintain stability in the region.

The 2020 war dramatically altered the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan regained control over much of the territory it had lost in the early 1990s, while Armenia faced domestic political turmoil as a result of the military defeat. The ceasefire agreement, while halting the fighting, did not resolve the underlying issues of the conflict, such as the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the rights of the ethnic Armenian population. The region remains tense, with sporadic clashes and a fragile peace maintained by Russian peacekeepers.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh highlights the challenges of resolving ethnic and territorial disputes in a geopolitically sensitive region. The involvement of regional powers like Russia and Turkey further complicates the situation, as both countries have vested interests in the South Caucasus. The path to a lasting peace remains uncertain, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan needing to address historical grievances, security concerns, and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh's population.