Rising oil prices and their indirect impact on Bitcoin: what to expect in the short term

The price of oil has risen due to geopolitical tensions and supply risks that create uncertainty in the markets and lead investors to pay a kind of "risk premium" for potential crude oil shortages. This directly increases energy and transportation costs, which in turn puts pressure on global inflation. When inflation rises, central banks are generally less likely to cut interest rates and may even keep them high to control prices, thus limiting the liquidity available in financial markets. Bitcoin, being a risky asset highly sensitive to liquidity, is often negatively affected in these contexts, as investors tend to move their capital toward assets considered safer or more tangible, such as oil or gold. Although there is no direct link between the price of oil and Bitcoin, the relationship exists indirectly through the macroeconomic impact on inflation, interest rates, and risk appetite in the markets, which can generate downward pressure on the cryptocurrency in the short term as investors seek refuge in more stable assets. Furthermore, the perception of global risk tends to make capital movements more cautious, reinforcing the rotation towards commodities and affecting Bitcoin's volatility.