Bitcoin Update: 10 Analysts, 10 Different Predictions. Who's Correct?
The last couple weeks I've continued to outline the many mixed signals within the market. With these mixed signals comes numerous possibilities. The old joke about technical analysis goes something like, "Ask 10 analysts what the market is doing, you'll get 10 different responses".
This could not be more accurate within the crypto market today. I can give you thorough technical analysis, but that does not mean the information will come to fruition. This is a young market that's extremely difficult to predict at the moment. I say that in an attempt to emphasize just how risky the market currently is. If you want someone to enforce your bullish bias, go read another analyst. There are plenty who'll tell you bitcoin is going to the moon tomorrow. I can't do that with a clean conscious. I'll always give you the unfiltered truth. While I'm EXTREMELY bullish on bitcoin longterm, the short-term is unclear. With that in mind, let's get on with the analysis and see if we can make sense of what's happening...
Bitcoin seems to have found some support around $7,270. The next relevant support is approximately $6,815. There are about 5-6 ways one could count bitcoin's current pattern. I outlined 3 scenarios in my last update. After analyzing further, I've narrowed it down to 2 possible paths I believe make the most sense. One is bullish and one bearish. My being a bull at heart, let's start with the bullish...
Movement over the past few days has caused me to re-evaluate things. If we are still correcting from the prior 5 waves up, I believe we're still in a WXY pattern. The second ABC pattern is needing to complete its C wave. Volume is weak at the moment. For this count to be validated, we'd need to see a major increase. Should that happen, here's how this scenario may play out:
My bearish count has also been re-evaluated. I can still see us in 5 waves down, but unfortunately, it could go much lower than I previously expected. Zooming in, I've counted the sub-waves in yellow. If this count is accurate, I believe we're only in wave 3 of 5 waves down. This means we could see a 5th wave as low as $6,000. To be clear, I'm NOT saying this will happen, but it is a possibility. Here's how it may look:
Looking at the 4 hour RSI and MACD, we can see bullish divergence. This MAY suggest a rise in price may be looming.
An ascending support line is starting to form on the 4 hour RSI. This may be a good indicator to watch.
The 4 hour MACD is still operating within that wedge we've discussed for over a week now. As I've said, the closer it gets to the apex, the greater the chance of a major breakout up OR down.
Let's see how this week plays out. As I've said all week, the market is sending out many mixed signals. While this can be extremely frustrating, it's important to keep your eye on the big picture. This time last year, bitcoin was approximately $2,400. I'm excited to see where it'll be this time next year.
BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral to Bearish
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.
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Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly. Technical analysis is simply a guide. It doesn’t predict the future. Anyone that claims they know exactly what’s going to happen is foolish, lying or both. Technical Analysis should only be used as a tool to help make better decisions. If you enter a trade, I recommend having a stop loss and sticking to it. You will loose at times. The key is to have more wins than losses. With that in mind, I wish you great success.
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There are rumors about $3k level. What do you think about that?
I think that's possible, but not likely. If bitcoin drops below $6K, I think it'll find support between $5,400-$5,000 where I'd expect a strong bounce.
Good TA, old bean and I agree that the short-term is unclear. I would be interested to know what you think about the following.
I think there is an increasing probability of Bitcoin returning to its previous Feb/April lows now that it has retraced below the golden ratio and the long-term support line at about 7,2. There seems to be a lot of buy orders waiting at around 6,450, so we'll probably see a bounce at that level and, if we don't, Bitcoin will break its market-structure.
However, with large sell -orders waiting at around 9,7, I think we are going to see Bitcoin continuing to move up and down between these two levels in the near future, as the 4%, who hold 96% of bitcoin continue to manipulate the price.
Bitcoin is not for hodlers at the moment, it's a trading tool that can be used to make 5% here and there on market movements, until we get some regulation from the SEC and more big money moves into the market, because there aren't enough DUAs to sustain any long-term increases at the moment.
I believe some, if not many of those buy and sell orders are fake....still they have the desired effect. I think you hit the nail on the head. There's absolutely no doubt the market is being manipulated.
I've said all month we need regulatory clarity for new money to enter. Until that happens, there's a good chance we'll see bitcoin bounce back and forth like a ping pong ball.
I agree, Bitcoin will just keep bouncing up and down in the meantime. The thing that concerns me is that the DoJ is reportedly investigating price manipulation, but I haven’t seen a statement from the DoJ itself, so it may just turn-out to be FUD that was conveniently timed to coincide with the Cboe futures expiration, like so many other FUD reports about regulatory measures in South Korea, paedophilic images on the Bitcoin blockchain etc. I suppose somebody will attempt to root-out the manipulation of Bitcoin in time anyway, because the NYSE and NASDAQ want to trade crypto, Goldman Sachs won't want their acquisition of Circle to be for nothing and apparently, the Winklevoss twins invited NASDAQ in to monitor trading and price movements on their site. If the US regulators are serious about protecting the public from 'risky' crypto investments, then they will have to sort this issue out. It's just the timing of these unconfirmed reports that makes me a little wary, but I hope my fears are unfounded.
I believe the investigation into price manipulation by the Dept of Justice is accurate and long overdue. I haven't bothered to look for a statement from them directly, but there are countless reputable news outlets reporting on it. Here's Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe?srnd=cryptocurriences
Yes, although Bloomberg were recently reporting that the SEC would be discussing whether or not Ethereum is a security. More FUD. It was interesting to see that the price dump that took us below 8k started just before the Bloomberg report about a DoJ investigation came out. Insider information?
Very possible.
Excellent work sir...as usual