BITCOIN AND THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL CURRENCIES - BITCOIN, BITCOIN CASH, BITCOIN GOLD
My view is that the trust of Bitcoin is the immutable blockchain and the design of competing interests keeping it stable, keeping it from change. As while some think change is good it is not for a store of value or even a currency. Those that disagreed over Bitcoin have had heated endless debates, but this design kept people from carelessly changing Bitcoin. It started as the most stable design and held for years, boring old reliable, and often frustrating, Bitcoin.
If you even tried to change Bitcoin in the past, or even now, you would find yourself smashing up against a wall of different ideas that all think you are wrong and they are right. This design is extremely resistant to change. Clearly frustrated, many went off and made Alternative projects exactly how they or their communities wanted. Leaving Bitcoin alone and not risking the foundation, Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency.
Total freedom to create whatever they want is enough for most people, but not all, some want the entire pie, control over Bitcoin itself. They tried and failed to gain consensus countless times and perhaps they had good ideas and good reasons to want to take control, but overall, the majority rejected them as they wanted stability. Recently, they found a way in however, a chink in the armor of the most trusted currency. Simple selfish greed. By forking Bitcoin and playing it off as free money, they found a way to slowly take it all.
Now, they can change (their) Bitcoin like a normal alternative project, and also grabbed the branding of the largest project, bootstrapped all the exchanges and cut to the end of the line, essentially with something aking to a "greed works" cheat code. To their credit, also bringing in all those that wanted Bitcoin to change, or didn’t like the direction it was headed. Those afraid banks would take it over or that Bitcoin needed bigger blocks to take over the world. They all got their new Bitcoin, but have now become the greatest threat to the entire ecosystem.
The Bitcoin community is now officially as divided as possible. Not only ideologically, but to the point of the alternative free cash version, calling their version “the real Bitcoin.” Using a Bitcoin.com domain, using r/btc, and misleading any new people to think this is the truth. Yet, what is the truth, if truth is just what a bunch of people agree on? Bitcoin Gold? Perhaps it can be the real store of value. It has the word “Gold” in it. The same logic, or something like, Bitcoin Next, could offer actual technical upgrades that make Bitcoin Cash outdated in an instant, also taking the brand and claiming the vision of Satoshi.
This greed play was quite effective, I give them credit, and Bitcoin Cash is likely to get plenty of converts. Bitcoin may be hampered greatly by this event, and perhaps made to look like something bad by those that once preached for converts. Yet, it has also created a chink in the armor of all these free money forks. People are now conditioned to think technical upgrades and forks ALWAYS mean splitting the chains and printing more free money! Something that puts the Federal Reserve to shame, ironically, using the Bitcoin brand. Don't worry though, they will just say you don't understand economics if you explain how this is printing money, so I am sure it will be fine.
In my view, out of all the ways Bitcoin might fail, divide and conquer is perhaps the saddest way to of them all. Bitcoin could still go to 100k, Bitcoin Cash could be the “Real Bitcoin” if enough people just repeat it long enough, but in the long run, there will be countless NEW Bitcoins. There will be better versions, versions without shady people backing them. Versions made by big businesses, by anonymous scammers. Perhaps by people considered to more purist Libertarians or Anarchists. They will be endless, and people will expect even them to split into new free money, or why buy it, this is just about printing free money, right?
Where does this end? It may take years, but I think it ends badly. It ends with the branding associated with scams, with printing endless free money rather than a lofty notion of a digital gold. It ends with ponzis, the dark markets repuation repeated even more than "the real Bitcoin," and it ends with the tragic failure of a once great idea. An idea that just could not hold as people were too greedy. Disagree if you want, and obviously I could be wrong, years ago I thought Bitcoin would hold strong. Until ETC happened, then I warned everyone it was coming, shouting from the rooftops they were coming after Bitcoin Next. Play along with me though, let’s say I am right. What does this mean for digital currencies as a whole?
To me, it means that until some way is devised to protect branding in some decentralized manner, trademarks and the government will step in to protect people brands and companies, those that do not have this protection and try to compete, if they gain popularity, will have the same fate befall them as Bitcoin. The government will also use all of this coming chaos to regulate, and those old school famous Bitcoin whales gave them every possible excuse to do it. So they should not be upset when it happens, as they caused it. They won’t care, they will have their millions, and they can invest in the real next generation digital currencies, not called Bitcoin anything, and they can toss away their Anarchist backgrounds and put on suits and smile. Perhaps some already have.
The true believers will hold their flavor of Bitcoin to the bitter end, and they may bubble up for some time, but they will all cannibalize and turn on each other. The legacy Bitcoin, the new Bitcoins, each calling the others fake, shitcoins, scams, in league with the Banksters. New people will keep chasing after it until they are ruined. I truly think the chance Bitcoin had to take over is gone, and maybe it never had a chance, just a dream like the people in the 1960s. So I think it will be something else. Bitcoin will remain, but sooner or later it will no longer be King, it will just be an amazing part of the history of digital currencies. A history once filled with the promise of changing the world, but in the end, the world will win, as it is much more resistant to change than Bitcoin ever was or ever could be.
I think you point out some good reasons that bitcoin is not as bulletproof as once thought. That's actually a good thing, as competition and choices are good.
Furthermore, I think that while bitcoin cash has seen success so far (by focusing a major group away from BTC towards a digital cash model), bitcoin gold has shown that not just anyone can spin up a hard fork and make money out of nothing.
Thanks! Also there are already many new projects with great new technology and brand with great community which is not split in any way. I especially like coins where everybody helps with the project to be strong. Strong community means a lot. It helps everything. Especially to move forward!
Amazing Post and I COULDN'T agree more!
This is my view, How can Bitcoin have a wide usage if we end up with 20 different versions in 2 years time?
This is ridiculous ! And the "free money with free new BTC Like" has always sounded so stupid to me.
In the financial markets if you "split" a share or give a dividend, the price of your "main share" is adjusted and actually it doesn't create money! It is a ZERO SUM game.
Not to mention my personal view that Bitcoin is probably the least exciting project on the Blockchain (I understand it was the first, has media coverage and is supported by the community).
Great Post, Upvote and Re-Steemed. Thank you @hilarski for Resteeming it first on my Feed ;).
Take care my CryptoFriends.
A grim yet excellent write up. Thank you. It will be interesting indeed to see where we go from here.
Thank you for the thought-provoking article. However, we must remember that this entire cryptocurrency space is a massive experiment in decentralization and removal of third-party trust systems. I'm not sure why bitcoin must be the king. I know it was the first, but do you really think the market cares?
I do not believe blockchain technology is going to end, just like the internet will be with us for a long time (ever perhaps??). The genie is out of the bottle, so let's encourage innovation, usage and education. The rest will be sorted out by the market. If enough participants fancy a particular crypto enough, then that will become dominant. We should be careful not to become too attached to any one crypto for ideological purposes.
Lastly, I do not understand how governments will be able to fully regulate this space. Sure they can put pressures on exchanges, but how do you regulate something that is everywhere and nowhere at the same time? Look at the drug war. We have had this senseless stupidity with us for nearly a century and drugs are still being sold. Now it seems certain products are becoming legalized again. The government cannot keep something illegal forever if the majority of people demand it.
At the least, it certainly is interesting what is happening now.
That was pretty darn good!
GREAT article, but I disagree with your questioned conclusion.
Seems obvious to me that the FIAT currencies are a scam. Because of this people created and moved into Bitcoin. Problem is, even though there will only ever be 21 million BTC, there is no limit on how many cryptocurrencies there can be or how many coins each can create. The facts (look at availabe "Alt" coins, there are 1,000s) that there is no check mechanism on this means the "cryptocurrencies" have NO ADVANTAGE over Government Fiat currencies (with the exception of perhaps they can't molest your wallet balance). So with this knowledge in mind, I will make a logical prediction of what will happen over the next few years.
As the decline of the US Dollar continues, Bitcoin (BTC or BCH or BTG) will rally (as they have already been doing).
Once people realize there is no limit to the amount of competing cryptocurrencies (altcoins) can be created, they will realize that most cryptocurrencies (with the exception of "OneGram", backed by physical gold in a vault, or concepts like ETH or EOS where they are not currencies but foundations of a useful new platform) are virtually equivolant to a FIAT currency with no checks and ballances they will move to the TRADITIONAL stores of value,,,, aka GOLD and SILVER.
Watch my prediction,,, the worlds currencies are already in decline, Cryptos are still raging,,,, next step,,, the crypto investors get slammed and Gold but especially SILVER will show themselves as KING.
Right now I"m in a few altcoins,,,,, COB (Cobinhood), SNT (msgr app to access Ethereum Dapps) and OneGram, and BCH (for the short term). OneGram seems to be the best of both worlds,,, I would suggest taking a look see.
"As the decline of the US Dollar continues, Bitcoin (BTC or BCH or BTG) will rally (as they have already been doing).
Once people realize there is no limit to the amount of competing cryptocurrencies (altcoins) can be created, they will realize that most cryptocurrencies (with the exception of "OneGram", backed by physical gold in a vault, or concepts like ETH or EOS where they are not currencies but foundations of a useful new platform) are virtually equivolant to a FIAT currency with no checks and ballances they will move to the TRADITIONAL stores of value,,,, aka GOLD and SILVER." <---- You are ahead of the curve there, yes, in a few years Gold and Silver are likely to go up quite a bit. I think digital currencies are with us to stay, but whatever happens with price, they are teaching people about money and value. Many will diversify into Gold and Silver to be safe from fiat.
yes, this is an early prediction,,, crypto are still a "Nerd" nitch, after the main stream Joe Blow on the streets are heavy in cryptos,,, then the big movers will switch to silver/gold.
Probably take 2 years or so,,,, but one never knows for sure,,,, for he comes in the night as a theif and no one knows at what hour.
Brilliant post, thank you. Especially the ending comments.
"Bitcoin will remain, but sooner or later it will no longer be King, it will just be an amazing part of the history of digital currencies. A history once filled with the promise of changing the world, but in the end, the world will win, as it is much more resistant to change than Bitcoin ever was or ever could be."
Maybe this is what the "Government" had in mind, to create chaos, to disrupt the disrupt-er.
Great write up James! Resteemed
Thanks Randy :)