RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Upate: Probability vs Certainty
ALERT! PLEASE READ THIS ! I want to bring this to @haejin attention right away. Because I am a bit apprehensive. I have written a detailed article on it and No i am not looking for no Steem Rewards but a genuine thought and if valid it will shake the whole crypto community.
3 Major concerns -
was Correction short-lived? Last time we had such Bull run in 2013 correction lasted over 21 months. The recent Bull run which ended in 2017 December reigned over 28 months. So ARE WE REALLY DONE with the correction in just 5 months?
The assumed B Wave of ABC correction (5-3-5)was such short-lived. So are we still woking on B as shown below? It’s very Likely. So if so best case scenario, by rule B usually retraces between 38-79% of A ( which is $19800-$5900(end of A)=$13900). So B could be $5900+ 13900X.79= ~$16,880 which also predicted by @haejin in recent post
Once B done, a devastating C wave is waiting for us NEXT which can take BTC to under $2k range. By rule, Wave C will always end beyond A i.e $5900. Please read my article for more details and share your opinions.
LINK to my blog/article
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dkalita123/are-we-done-with-correction-bitcoin-history-and-how-it-could-impact-it-s-future
I tend to agree with you friend...one thing we have going for us is that the percentage decline on this correction was already at one point around 70%...to me i look at this as the 0.786 retrace , so this could be the bottom...the only thing we can do is watch the indicators such as volume and MACD to see what type of action we are getting at around the possible Wave B projection area...I've talked to haejin about this and he is very aware of the possibility, but we just have to take it step by step...great chart
Thanks man. I need more feedback from people. You are correct it has retraced 70% at $5900 but this bull run started in Sep 2015. So I would assume a minimum of 78.6% is quite probable which could be completed by a downward wave C. Again in 2014 we had close 88% retracement. many has marked the whole ABC correction as shown below- which I believe is flawed for the reasons-
So when current assumptions are wrong it makes my case that stronger. I just want to warn people so they can collect their profit ( whatever they get at B) on time instead of waiting and losing it all.
Yeah you bring up a good point...this is the count that i came up with...this wasn't posted by me, but i came up with this a long time ago and saw this on twitter..if you notice, the last thrust up last year was only a 3 wave format...IMHO.....just more food for thought...but your post is definately something to keep in the back of our minds
This post was by a.shevelev002 on trading view
It's an interesting analysis but cryptos don't always follow those wave pattern pridictions. Cryptos are a lot more unpredictable and speculative than stocks. FUD and FOMO are much stronger in cryptos. Volatility is much stronger as well. So, we will have to wait and see.
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Haejin has warned us about this before. That we might be in a langer degree ABC.
So you might be right.....and maybe you are not.