Since Mid-2016, Bitcoin has had 6 major bear and bull market cycles
As you know, Bitcoin has died 927 times, and come back to life after every single one of them.
Ok, it hasn't actually died that many times, but I think you get my point.
In times like we are experiencing currently many people are left wondering, is this it, is this the big one where bitcoin finally doesn't come back?
While that is certainly possible I think we should look at recent history to gain a little perspective.
Check out this chart put out by Fundstrat Global Advisors:
(Source: https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung)
Just going back to mid-2016 you can see that bitcoin has dropped by over 25% on 6 separate occasions.
After which it rallied by more than 75% in every single one of them, not including this most recent time.
Not only that, but after each drop it has gone on to make new highs.
Basically, bitcoin has traded like a penny stock, on steroids.
This time is not exactly like the others.
As you can this most recent drop hasn't fully been updated on the chart yet.
It would make for the largest drop percentage wise over this time period by a significant margin at roughly 62%, while most of the other drops topped out around the 40% mark.
However, this run up was also different in terms of its magnitude.
It was up roughly 550% before it dipped!
Which was more than double the move in any of the other run ups during this time period.
Which means, perhaps this move was just making up for skipping the last dip along the way?!
Final thoughts:
Yes this drop has been scary, but looking at recent history and the giant run up we saw preceding this drop, it certainly wasn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Looking at the last few years of trading shows me that large drops and subsequent recoveries have been somewhat the norm for bitcoin.
So, while this time could very well be different (very dangerous words in Finance by the way), the more likely outcome could be more of the same phenomena that we've seen pretty consistently over the last 18 months.
You decide.
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
i think Bitcoin is new technology like the Internet of the 90s and yes it can be new currency in the future. Because we are transitioning to a new age. Transition periods are as painful as they were in the past. But In the coming years everyone will get used to the new system and new currency.
Some healthy consolidation before continuing upward. Just ask yourself, are more people beginning to doubt the value of their nation's fiat and search for alternative assets? I think the answer is clear and this is a trend that will continue for several more years, if not decades.
Plz
Very good
It seems to have taken on a life of its own and while everyone's trying to work it out it just keeps on doing its thing
As long as we calculate the value of Bitcoin in dollars the FIAT currency system is in best health. Or wouldn t you cash out your bitcoin in order to get the dollars out? I would.
Very good point. The fact that everyone talks in terms of dollars tells me we are still a ways away.
Every currency is quotes in terms of other currencies to allow for exchange. We even quote gold in terms of FIAT currencies for exchange purposes. It keeps me from having to pack up oz. of gold and shipping it to you.
I think Bitcoin as well as some others will survive for good reasons.
Bitcoin because it was the first mover and adopted by a "black market". As long as they are willing to use it a measure of exchange of goods and services it will survive.
Steem or SBD survives because it is earned by value added work. These blog post are the product of someones efforts and brains that ads value to someone else. So it is a innovative way to measure effort and then assign value to that effort based on the benefits someone else get from that effort.
Ripple (XRP - Google backed crypto) survives because it offers real value in making the financial markets more efficient. Transfer dollars is generally inefficient as a ledger between banks. They could use gold, that is even harder because of its physical nature. So , at least ideally, something like ripple is fast and can be a proxy for value (as long as you can eventually convert to other forms of currency). Plus organizations like American Express (plus others) are experimenting with it for its intended use. As they become more confident it will grow in value.
These are the kind of things that I look for when researching crypto. Is there a real benefit to someone somewhere. It has to be more than just another currency created by automated systems without real cost.
Yes @maven360, this is the logic I keep coming back to and why I got into crypto. People are looking for alternatives to store their value and that will only become increasingly so.
Great post @jrcornel. Yes, that Dec-Jan $400 billion dollar market cap explosion put a lot of energy into the system and thus a lot to blow off and that's what's happening. Way to keep things steady and focused.
Good article and a more sensible view than some you hear , cheers mike
Great post @jrcornel. I hope soon BTC will adopt bullish trend.
To put it in a little perspective, there have been many other greater percentage drops since bitcoins inception and each time it has recovered.
We are still up approx 800% since this time last year.
Additionally, many more people are signing up every day. Exchanges have improved back end infrastructure and hired more staff plus apps such have Robin Hood have added or are in the process of adding crypto options.
When this downturn is over and things turn around there will be many more people in a position to buy in!
I think you could be extremely right about that
Is extremely right better than totally right?
Nice chart from Fundstrat. Puts the recent drop into perspective.
You have analyzed wonderfully. It is so simple to comprehend your whole point. There is an air of positivism in your very informative blog. I am hopeful that Bitcoin will come to life again in couple of days as your analysis tells us, so are the other currencies which will rebound.
Thank you for this great insight in the world of crypto currency.
As informative as this seems, It still bears with some sense of danger with it. Bitcoin can not die, there are just too many recent adopters. Nevertheless, we can only sit back and wait.
I wish you could write a post about what will happen to post rewards when sbd finally comes back to $1 as initially proposed.
Also, I wish to know if there are considerable intentional efforts being made to make sure sbd comes back to $1.
I am just a little scared for my post rewards. It will begin to become less when converted to fiat.
Good job @jrcornel
I'm really really really excited about it all, and that has to be better than bashing your head against a wall, surely...
I am posting here since quite some times, haven t get any substantial rewards. The Steem system is a bit crooked. Unfortunately.
I see the ending of the A-B-C 5-3-5 wave now. I guess we have almost done with the correction:
I think that the financial institutions have made every effort possible to bring Bitcoin down, this has shown the great amount of support for this new economy and banks are scared of losing this type of control.
Bitcoin's dip is due to the incredible amount of fear that is being fed to new investors. but as they continue learning about the possibilities, real solutions and use cases crypto has to offer we find ourselves with a new support line.
Whe confidence comes back, Bitcoin really shows those steroidal pumps towards prosperity.
I stay with BITCON 100% but I choose STEEM 200%
