Iran’s War and Its Possible Consequences for Ukraine

Right now many people are talking about the situation with Iran. In my opinion, there is not much point in doing a detailed military analysis. For us, the main question is how this will affect Ukraine. Iran will most likely lose this war. The real question is how exactly it will end. There are two main scenarios: either the regime collapses completely and the country becomes a more secular state under U.S. influence, or some kind of peace agreement is signed with part of the current elites. The second important question is how long all of this will last.

During the invasion of Ukraine, Russia effectively lost when its plan for a quick war failed. Instead of a blitzkrieg, the war turned into a long campaign that drains resources. In some ways, a similar situation could now happen for the United States and Europe. Of course, nobody expected to “take Tehran in three days,” but if the war drags on, it will be a serious blow to their economies and also to the economies of U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. That is exactly what Iran is counting on. Their strategy is not necessarily to win the war. Their goal is to drag it out long enough so that the economic consequences for neighboringg countries, the EU, and the United States become too painful. After that negotiations can begin.

If we look at the time frame, the situation is interesting. The United States has strategic fuel reserves for about a month and a half. China has roughly the same situation. Yes, they have their own production, but it is still not enough. In the European Union, strategic reserves are practically absent. We often say that Ukraine was not prepared for war, but if you look at Europe, it seems that nobody there seriously prepared for crises like this. And they may face the biggest difficulties.

For Ukraine, an oil and gas crisis will also become a problem, and quite quickly. The sharp price increases at large gas stations right now often look more like speculation and greed than real economic reasons.But if the government starts strictly controlling prices, it could lead to a real shortage. This has happened before. At the same time, it will also be difficult to quickly import fuel from the EU because they themselves may start facing shortages. The situation could improve a bit if the United States manages to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Then tankrs will move faster again. But part of the infrastructure in the Middle East has already been damaged for example the LNG plant in Qatar, and those losses will not simply disappear.

In the near future, Ukraine will most likely face strong pressure with demands to repair and restart the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia and not touch it. Hungary and Slovakia are already speaking actively about this,but more influential countries may join them. There may also be requests not to strike the terminal in Novorossiysk. It is good that strikes there have already happened. It would not be a bad idea to repeat them and also target the Druzhba infrastructure so that repaiars are delayed for at least a month. In that case, Moscow will not be able to use the overall crisis to its advantage. As for the weapons Ukraine receives from NATO and the United States with European funding, we also depend on the overall situation and on how quickly this campaign ends.If the United States handles it quickly, we will hardly feel any changes. If the war lasts longer than a month, the consequences may become noticeable.

In fact it's important for Trump to achieve a result before April 1. And this is not only about the economy. Important negotiations with Xi Jinping are ahead,and strong positions will be needed there. Victory in Iran and partial control over oil flows would be a serious advantage. A long war with losses and economic problems, on the other hand, would be a very weak position. That is why many countries are interested in ending this campaign quickly, except for Iran, Russia, and North Korea.

The fact that the war in Ukraine has slightly moved away from the front pages of the news is not a big problem. There were almost no chances for quick negotiations with Moscow anyway. The level of support has long stopped depending only on the news cycle. And on the front, by the way, something important has happened – the enemy has effectively been stopped on most directions. At the same time, its losses are growing. Because of this, there is real hysteria in Russian military channels.

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