The USA versus China: a Thucydides Trap?

Hi all!

Today I would like to talk about something that I have engaged with during my International Relations study.

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the USA was concidered the ''hegemon'' of the world. It remained for this for years, having both the largest economy and military of the world. But we live in a time in which the power of balance of the world is changing. Especially the BRIC countries (Brasil, Russia, India and China) are superpowers to be.

As for China, an interesting realist perspective is that of the Thucydides Trap. Here is how it works:

In acient Greece, Athens was a rising power while Sparta was a dominant power in the region. This is, in essence, the ‘trap’ of Thucydides. The fears of a rising power spark war fervor in an already established power, leading to conflict as it is seen as the only solution to the growing imbalance of power. More times than not, the dominant power comes out on top but at a catastrophic cost which signals the end of their power and the rise of another in its place. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. While conflict is not expected in the traditional sense of the term, economic and social conflict will escalate as a result of China’s dramatic rise against the global hegemony of the United States. The U.S. cannot stand to have its economic or military dominance to be challenged in such a manner and conflict is almost axiomatic in the near future. This is the modern ‘Thucydides trap’.

What do you guys think? How will a future, multipolar world look?

• Post by Jeroenster