#nateUnmoderated tagAll postsTrending CommunitiesNewcomers' CommunitySteemitCryptoAcademySteemit Feedbackআমার বাংলা ব্লগKorea • 한국 • KR • KOSteem POD TeamSTEEM CN/中文Steem AllianceAVLE 일상WORLD OF XPILARBeauty of CreativityTron Fan ClubExplore Communities...#nateTrendingHotNewPayoutsMutedbumblecat (78)in #audiobook • 3 months agoSoothing voices for audiobook listening.When I'm doing stuff with numbers, I don't wanna listen to music, because I'll be distracted, and I don't wanna listen…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 5 months agoHere's what a uniform normal polling error would look like for either candidate according to Nate Silver's current polling averages.So yeah, we could very well see a 7 battleground state sweep by either candidate. Typically polling error is…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 5 months agoNate Silver had this map in his latest post.It is really dumb when you actually look into it. The map purports to show cumulative inflation since January 2021.…pomeline (79)in #nate • 5 months agoGood Nate Silver piece on pollsters potentially "herding" this cycle.In other words, releasing results that are similar to others. Small quibble though- polling violates the central…zafrada (78)in #nate • 6 months agoGood piece by Nate Cohn on how a lot of pollsters are weighting on 2020 recall vote this election.Given a winner's bias in recall, this usually shifts polls towards the loser- which in this case would be Trump. As…zafrada (78)in #nate • 6 months agoNow do unemployment you dingus.We are above pre-pandemic forecasts for GDP and employment. That's objectively good. Pre-pandemic expected systemic…zafrada (78)in #nate • 6 months agoThis is a good thread to understand cross tabs in polling.But it also makes me wonder why Nate Cohn so often treats his Times/Siena cross tabs as gospel if he understands…zafrada (78)in #rasmussen • 6 months agoNate continues racking up reasons to ignore him.Lol. Nate Silver didn't already have Rasmussen Reports labeled as a Republican pollster? He's a joke. At this point…bumblecat (78)in #polling • 6 months agoA reader asked Nate Silver if the polls will underestimate Trump.He answered that we have no way of knowing ahead of time. Poll bias is not consistent across elections. And this is…zafrada (78)in #electoral • 6 months agoHere is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020…zafrada (78)in #nate • 7 months agoFwiw Nate Silver's election model thinks North Carolina and Georgia will vote together this year.They are highly correlated in his model. And either state could be the tipping point state. North Carolina has some…zafrada (78)in #nate • 7 months agoFwiw Nate Silver's polling average sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.3%.FiveThirtyEight's polling average for reference sees RFK's effect as helping Trump by only 0.2%. His polling was on…bumblecat (78)in #nate • 8 months agoPolling favours Harris right now.Harris is now leading in Nate Silver's election forecast with a 50.5% chance to win the election fwiw. Harris has a…leguna (78)in #nate • 8 months agoNate Silver's polling averages fwiw.He's weighting more recent polls more than older polls, but as far as I can tell still includes older polls. So…pomeline (79)in #nate • 8 months agoNate Silver election forecast.Nate Silver's new election forecast is out now that Harris is the nominee fwiw. I think it is far too early for this…zafrada (78)in #election • 9 months agoIs Nate Silver finally admitting he's just doing election models based on vibes now?Fundamentals are an important part of election modeling: polls shift a lot over time polling error is a…nooses (78)in #nate • 10 months agoBest polls give Biden a grim outlook.I mean Nate of all people should know state realignments across election cycles can be pretty large. Just look at how…women-power (64)in #nate • 11 months agoFinding the Best Quality Internet Without CompromiseFinding the Best Quality Internet Without Compromise In today's digital age, a reliable internet connection is…zafrada (78)in #nate • 11 months agoBizarre and self-contradictory tweet (which is like all his tweets these days).Low-information swing voters would be most susceptible to the contours of how one of the largest newspapers in the…zafrada (78)in #cross • 11 months agoMy dude is getting bad at the one thing he was actually good at.My dude is talking about the very large sample Harvard Youth poll that specifically polled young voters aged 18-29…
