MY 2021 CRYPTO PLAN -->> BULL RUN - HOW TO INVEST AND WHEN TO CASH OUT!!!!

MY 2021 CRYPTO PLAN -->> BULL RUN - HOW TO INVEST AND WHEN TO CASH OUT!!!!

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I'm not responsible for your actions. This is my personal opinion. I hope something I say can help you in some way.

Let's get after it....

I will try and make this as concise and succinct as I can. If I need to update in the future, I will...so please follow me and if you feel you gained something from reading this...I appreciate your votes / donations.

Background:
Bitcoin is the first blockchain. Blockchain as a technology is truly transformative, perhaps greater than the internet in our era. Bitcoin is the leader with market dominance consistently above 50%, maybe more, usually more, than the entire crypto world. Check Coinmarketcap.com or Coingecko for more details where most cryptos get listed. Bitcoin began in 2009 out of the near global financial crash beforehand. Now, let's get to the present playbook and my plan on how we can make money this year. Bitcoin has a few significant properties that have led to very distinct and predicable market cycles up to this point. In fact, it's almost every FOUR years to the tee - so that's what we will explore.
Why? Bitcoin undergoes a "halving" event every four years. This means that the number of NEW bitcoin that get released each block is cut in half nearly every four years. For example, today, nearly 900 new bitcoin get rewarded to miners every block...in four years, this number is cut in half.... So why is this such a big deal?????!!!!!

Because it drives market cycles! Bull Markets (roughly a year, maybe 9-10 months) and then Bear Markets (prices drop, yuck...then the market gets stuck until next time)

Now, obviously, usually, past performance can't predict future performance, yet this is all we have and it actually works quite well so far, so I'm going with it until it don't :)

So, 2021 - I think we've got maybe until September to climb higher (obviously it will not be smooth, it will be up and down, very volatile, expect 20-40% corrections along the way, maybe 5 or more).
Then, think about taking profits. You don't want to make big gains and then lose everything in a big crash!
I repeat. Take profits when the indicators are giving signals.

So, what are the indicators. While, there are several.
History: Market cycles of bitcoin show us after the halving we get a bull market (prices go up), then predictably, we get the bear market. Party over.
NUPL: Net Unrealized Profit Loss - this indicator is good. When people have a lot of paper gains, but never cash in...if this indicator gets way too high...we either correct or again....it's party over.
There are others...but, I'm moving on.

HOW TO MAKE MONEY THRU 20201 Bull RUN:
First, understand the timing and the narratives.
The timing: Crypto is early, innovative, global, revolutionary, young, and quite volatile. The cycle timing - it's almost Feb 2021 - Bitcoin passed it's previous ATH (All Time High) at around 20,000 - soared to 40k, now cooling in the 30k's - when you read this it may be different. Ethereum - the number 2 market cap is still below it's previous cycle's ATH.

I expect bitcoin to lead the charge. Maybe getting to 200-300k (perhaps higher).
Ethereum to lead the charge of all the alt coins. Maybe getting to 10k (or higher).
Again.... this cycle...

The NARRATIVES:
BTC
ETH
DEFI
DOT
ORACLES
NFTs

While, there may be others...this is what I see.

BTC - digital gold and a hedge against fiat inflation. I don't want to talk about this anymore right now, it seems apparent.
ETH - Ethereum has become the powerhouse. The number one platform where most dapps (decentralized apps) are building upon. It is slow, hasn't show true ability to scale. Transactions are costly too (gas fees). Needs an upgrade and perhaps it's coiming. But, this is where the action is. This is where I see this crypto cycle focused upon. Which leads me to the next narrative...DEFI.
DEFI: DeFi stands for "Decentralized Finance". And nearly all of the action is happening on Ethereum. DeFi had a big stint in the summer of 2020 - we are likely to see DeFi projects come back strong for a big run in 2021. What is DeFi? Decentralized Finance is where the future of finance is trying to form. Instead of centralized banks or centralized governments controlling transactions such as borrowing, lending, trading, insurance, ...etc. - new forms of finance are sprouting and billions of dollars are excited about the new possibilities.
DOT: Dot is for PolkaDot...and no...not the fashion design. Dot is a infrastructure that may rival or surpass Ethereum...perhaps this cycle, yet has lasting potential for years to come. Solid foundation with parachains...This market cycle will likely be kind to DOT and perhaps may of its parachain projects. Don't say I didn't warn you!
ORACLES: Oracles are here to provide real-world data to smart contracts on the blockchain. The leader is LINK. That's Chainlink. Several other oracles are out there and are partnering with big projects. Just watch. The oracle narrative will be big in 2021.
NFT: NFTs are in my opinion super interesting. NFT's are "Non-Fungible Tokens" - And the opportunity is tremendous with them. Basically, anything that is unique can be tokenized (a unique asset) and the opportunities in my mind are limitless from artwork to gaming. Haven't you always wondered about all of those "skins" or battle axes purchased in games like Fortnite? What if these could be owned and tradable. That's just the beginning with NFT's - Time will tell if this market will be fully realized this cycle for its real potential, but I do expect a lot of hype and many NFT projects to boom as a result.

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Okay, so that is the BACKGROUND and the NARRATIVES that I think are necessary to understand.
And, outside of cyrpto...I just want to add one more....

CORONAVIRUS, DEBT, AND FIAT MONEY PRINTING

Now, hopefully Corona will become a thing of the past. A blip of the distant radar screen. But, it is here and affecting many individuals and governments alike.
Debt can be good or bad. Good if you can sustain it, use it, grow your wealth, stay ahead of it, and pay it back.
If not, you lose relatively to the alternatives.
Money printing. Governments print money, it's easier than taxation or revenue growth usually in the short term. But, what about medium term? Long term?
People for ages have fled to harder assets like gold or silver to protect and preserve their wealth.
Perhaps they are seeing a new option (decentralized non-inflationary assets).
My guess, this is a no-brainer over time.

Yet, there are several risks and hurdles still along the way.
Government regulation is a big one.

Even the dream of a decentralized world may after consolidation over time just bring us back to more centralization wrapped up with perhaps stronger futuristic technology.

But, I'm not going there right now.

Let's focus on making money. This cycle..20201

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So, let's say until September 2021 (maybe longer, and historically maybe an extra month or so for ALT coins)
Here's what seems to happen.

Liquidity (money flow) - seems to trickle down. From Bitcoin at the top, to Ethereum, and then down the line to the major alts, and finally down to the mid and low cap alt coins.

But, it's not always smooth. When BTC rises, money follows it. When BTC and ETH tend to go sideways, stall - then, we seem to see ALT SEASON, where liquidity flows into lower cap coins.

------------DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO
Depending on your risk tolerance. Just note, the lower the cap, the greater the volatility and risk. AND crypto itself is volatile enough!!!

KNOW WHEN TO TAKE PROFITS -
Many like to let there profits ride in blue chips (larger cap coins, maybe top 10 on CoinMarketCap) through the growth of the bull cycle. While in alt coins, some like to pull out their initial investment after a 2x (double) and then let their free "bag" ride the cycle.
In the past bitcoin leads the pack in the uptrend and in the peak. So, you may have an extra month or so in alts to ride the top....but, follow the indicators.... when we get close to timing and indicators...it's better to have some profit on the side.

That's it for now. I can share some of the coins that I see in a portfolio...yet, there are a few factors.
GAS COSTS - You have to take into account you budget and trade size - gas costs on the ethereum network are high and you need to be aware. (Paying $15 on $150 position is 10%, this may be worth it for you, but also consider the cash out side too.)
ENTRY POINT- THIS IS PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT!!! Unlike most stock investments, etc..... WE are talking MULTIPLES HERE. So 10x, means growing your initial investment TEN TIMES - Example: Invest $1,000 becomes $10,000 ---- A 100x is like turning $1,000 into $100,000

I'm not saying you'll get these, but they are very possible in these markets. Your ENTRY POINT significantly affects your performance. AND BEING EARLY IS SO SO SO IMPORTANT.

Example. If you want to make 100x. Invest $1 when the price is $1 and it goes to $100.
But, if your ENTRY POINT is say at $5 (still early, but not early enough to get the 100x in this scenario). Because, if you invest $1 when the price is $5 and then it goes to $100 (like above), you don't get a 100x return, you get a 20x return. Still good, but being too late at the early entry point can make all the difference on your overall return.

How does this play into a BITCOIN real world example.
Well, let's say BTC is currently at $30k.
Whatever amount you invest today....Bitcoin would have to go to $300k just for you to 10x

Now, I believe BTC and ETH are the least risky of the crypto assets, so perhaps you may want to consider this when you diversify your portfolio...you don't have to always shoot for the stars when there might be slow and and steady picks, while perhaps boring, at the top waiting for you to be a part of.

I'd say that BTC and ETH probably have 8x - 15x potential this run. I think ETH has the greater potential.
Going down the list on CoinMarketCap, you may see greater multiples.
10-30x? 50x? Even on Page One?

The greatest chance for 100x - 1,000x will likely come from the "low cap gems" - these are the very low market cap projects that have solid foundation, great potential, and may find this 2021 run to pump them up.

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I'd be glad to share more about my thoughts, reasoning, predictions, strategy, etc. if you'd like.

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