⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 31) ⚽️steemCreated with Sketch.

in #epl • 6 years ago (edited)

The numbers

EPL GEs GW31

The methods used to generate these are:

  • Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
  • Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

HomeAwayHome GEAway GETot GG Supr
BournemouthWest Brom1.4702239860.96308349552.4333074810.5071404901
HuddersfieldCrystal Palace1.1844224131.0926383882.2770608010.091784025
StokeEverton1.302520841.245356532.547877370.0571643095
LiverpoolWatford2.3489543150.88180992013.2307642351.467144395

Summary

  • My banker of the week is Liverpool with a goal supremacy value of 1.47
  • The highest scoring game is expected to be Liverpool vs Watford with a total goal expectancy value of 3.23
  • There are two tight games this week, the tightest game being Stoke vs Everton with a goal supremacy value of just 0.06

Bet of the week

Due to the reduced number of games, there's no bet of the week. Based on my goal expectancies, Watford +2/+2.5 on the handicap looks good value, but the recent 3-0 loss against Arsenal puts me off enough not to tip it. Are Watford getting complacent?

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

Please upvote Upvote, resteem Resteem and follow if you enjoyed this content :)

#soccer #fpl #football #betting
6 years ago in #epl by
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     6 years ago 

    I think that Salah will score at least a goal and the much is going to be over 2.5 goals. I don't really think that Watford's defense can compete with Liverpool's attack.

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     6 years ago 

    Thanks for the weekly info Acelad !

    For as far as I understand it's better to choose a 50/50 payout as long as the SBD are worth over 1$ on the market. Around 38% of your payout would be worth twice as much and could be used on the market to get more SP in return.

    Good Luck !

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     6 years ago 

    Thanks @costanza, I'll take that advice on board for my future posts :).

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       6 years ago 

      Too many games being postponed this weekend, let's see what can we make out of those that are still playing:

      acelad-comment.png

      (OG3+ = BTTS&Over2.5 | DA = Yes)

      The game that worries me the most is the Liverpool's. Such a talented and powerful squad, but they perform a bit randomly. When you expect them to do a routine job, they screw it up. When you give up on them, they start destroying their opponents,... I have the love-hate relationship with them :-)

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       6 years ago 

      As a Liverpool fan I know what you mean all too well! Playing a "mid-table" team at Anfield tends to go one of three ways:

      • (50%) We dominate high up the pitch, create early chances, sustain pressure, and win comfortably by 2+ goals
      • (30%) We are forced into playing a slow tempo, patient build-up due to the opposition shape. By 60' if things haven't changed the players start making bad decisions (shooting from outside the area instead of dribbling/passing for a better chance). These kinds of games have a decent chance of ending a draw, and I can usually tell if it's going to be one of those days shortly after HT if there's no reaction from the players.
      • (20%) We are holding a 1-goal lead late in the game, letting the opponent have the ball a lot more than the rest of the game. We're just one defensive mistake away from a draw here, and you can tell the players have that in their minds. Note: This has actually improved a lot as the season has gone on, and with the arrival of Van Dijk.

      Good luck with your bets, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see you make a profit on those :).

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      [-]
       6 years ago (edited)

      Good luck with your bets, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see you make a profit on those :).

      Thanks mate!
      As they say... even a broken clock is right twice a day :-)

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       6 years ago 

      Bournemouth one is a winner, and the Stoke-Everton 1-1 was close! 84th min winner from Everton to make it 1-2. Maybe if they didn't have a red card they might have held on.

      (50%) We dominate high up the pitch, create early chances, sustain pressure, and win comfortably by 2+ goals

      Liverpool were firmly in this scenario today, which as a fan I was happy to see, but not so good for your BTTS bet!

      Huddersfield were very disappointing, and despite a couple decent wins recently, they'll need to avoid losing at home to teams like Crystal Palace if they want to avoid relegation.

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      [-]
       6 years ago 

      I agree :-)

      I've expected more of Huddersfieled (and less of Crystal Palace). The moment I've stopped supporting Crystal Palace, they decided to win :-)

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      [-]
       6 years ago 

      good article @acelad
      thank you for sharing
      resteem

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         6 years ago 

        Oke frend restem @bobmarli oke and vote

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           6 years ago 

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             6 years ago 

            Congratulations @acelad! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

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