Macro and Crypto Trend

Has anything changed on the macro front given the macro-driven bear market?
This month, the answer is… maybe a bit. At the FOMC meeting on Nov. 1st-2nd, the Fed remained hawkish.

Powell reaffirmed his stance once again, stating the committee’s desire to curb inflation at seemingly all cost.
At the press conference, Powell received many tough questions around the future trajectory of interest rate hikes.

Powell was non-committal, while acknowledging that the pace of hikes will have to come down at some point, although when is still to be determined.

Markets have since repriced the December FOMC meeting, placing an ~80% probability of a 50 bps rate hike with ~20% probability of 75 bps. This is in stark contrast to the probabilities noted just a few weeks prior.

Last month, that the high-time frame market structure for BTC remained largely unchanged (pre-FTX collapse), with an important caveat.

The loss of momentum within the BTC market as each subsequent bounce off of the $18k-$19k support level grew weaker and weaker.

It remained clear to us at the time that “The path of least resistance is likely further downside until macroeconomic clarity returns. Should we lose the June lows, BTC is likely to move towards its higher-time frame market structure levels. These are roughly $14k-$16k (not much support), and $9k-$13k (high-time frame volume support).”

Unfortunately, this situation has played out exactly, although from a self-inflicted wound within the crypto industry as FTX’s insolvency was revealed. BTC crashed through the June lows before bouncing at ~$15.5k.

As noted, this area does not have much structural support, and in the face of further contagion and uncertainty, we remain cautious as we may watch the $9k-13k level.

We are almost near at the bottom in price wise. I am not so sure if we really see the bottom line below 10K.
But this is the right point to prepare for next round of crypto time.
It is required to do DCA in for many Up-potential coins and tokens, but may cosume much time to see remarkable price change.

Source: Delphi Digital