Real Estate Has Everything Against It
Real estate was a good investment over these past decades. It had everything going for it. Even people's homes (which are not assets) went up in value enough to make people feel rich. So many tail-winds pushing everything up.
Now, all those tail-winds have stopped, and are now blowing the other way. Some of those gentle tail-winds are turning into hurricane winds blowing back.
The things that have changed:
- Demographics - it is no longer going up
- Work from home - those large office buildings are no longer needed
- Lay offs - Even more of those large office buildings are no longer needed.
- Marriage rates - they are dropping. The single family home is no longer needed.
- B&M retail is finished - gonna need to find something else to do with all of that space
- Banking System Failure - no more mortgages. House prices fall to less than the down payment.
With all of these things going down, real estate is toast.
The only thing that is going up in value is a homestead. A place where you can build a greenhouse and grow your own food.
Residential
The main reason that more houses are needed is because the father is being kicked out of the home.
The idea, or maybe the ideal, was the single family home. Where the man got a job, found a wife, started a family, bought a home to raise the family in.
That entire string is now gone.
With affirmative action, many men can't even get onto the lowest rung of the corporate ladder. Only the top percentage of men are able to jump over the missing rungs, into high paying jobs. And there really isn't any movement up the ladder. So, the get good job, get married, buy a house… is all gone.
What we need today is houses that are already split into his-her sides. And when divorce inevitably happens, they just close the door in between, and then the kids have to run around the house (to the other front door) to see the other parent.
However, this kind of house would have been great ten years ago, but things are falling off a cliff faster. And by the time a builder pioneered this house type, it won't be needed because no one will get married. Unless they change marriage/divorce laws drastically and quick. There is nothing good in the marriage contract for men.
House prices have gone up so drastically (compared to wages) that the younger generations are just giving up on home ownership. House prices either need to drop substantially, or wages need to rise (minimum wage should be over $75 to have kept up with inflation). I doubt this will happen until housing falls off a cliff
And then it will be too late, people will have moved away from the cities into rural small communities that grow their own food.
Entire tracts of suburban homes will be left empty.
Retail
Mall culture is dead. No one is going there to hang out. Everyone is hurting. There isn't enough money to spend any on gizmos found at the mall. And everything you would want is on Amazonium for cheaper.
Malls are now being rented by cities, to put their offices in, or being left vacant.
large retail chains are going bankrupt. So many of the big stores that we all know the names of Fry's Electronics, Linens 'n Things, Borders Books, Forever 21… are now gone. And more large retailers are talking about bankruptcy.
Everywhere i go, i see half empty strip malls.
And THEN! dun dun dunnnnn, going to a store becomes unnecessary. Not because of delivery, well there is that, but that all these homesteads become very self sufficient. And the things they can't make are bought straight from the grower, producer, manufacturer.
Next, things will be built to last, making going back to the store unnecessary.
Consumer culture is dying.
Commercial
All the corporations are laying people off. Less space needed.
Many people are now working from home. Less space needed.
Corporations are going bankrupt. Less space needed.
Corporations are going to be collapsing, falling over, and turning to dust. No space needed.
These large buildings designed to hold workers working for the corporations, are no longer needed.
Many of them are empty, without even a nibble of prospective new renters.
Owners of these commercial buildings are talking about turning them into high priced apartments. A path that is structurally very difficult, and one destined to fail as people continue to leave cities
The age of large corporations with large commercial buildings is over. There will be a lot of empty skyscrapers within a few decades. The demand for these structures is leaving, and it is not coming back.
Basically, demographics is falling. And with that, there is less need for houses, stores and commercial buildings.
There basically becomes empty buildings with no one ever coming to fill them. (only people moving for even better deals) The empty buildings are permanent and growing. How do you sell an empty building that no one wants? Do you sell it for scrap? Does anyone want to pay to take down buildings? Especially large buildings?
If something happens to accelerate demographic decline, like war, poverty, famine, genocide… then the collapse of real estate will happen even faster.
To those who want/desire for a house now, i am sorry. Real estate move slowly, and i doubt we will see a time with much lower house prices, while the rest of the economy stays good, so that you can buy it. The entire system is slowly collapsing. And then, we will look back, and say that it all fell apart so fast.
Find your "family" / tribe
Move out of the cities
Grow your own food