Why ethereum classic will fail (And Steem will succeed)

NOTE: I'm not here to like or dislike ethereum or ethereum classic, I just did my personal analysis and got to my own conclusions, read along...

Ethereum Classic

Yesterday we were all caught by surprise when Poloniex added Ethereum Classic to the exchange.

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/757068619234803712

Since then there were more than $10,000,000 in trading volume.

However, after a quick analysis, I don't think this will go far in terms of price increase.

The reasons why Ethereum Classic won't go far in terms of value in my opinion are very simple:

1. Supply and Demand
2. Eventual Lack of Support in the long run

1. Supply and Demand

Supply: Someone holding ethers before the hard fork now instantly owns the same amount of coins in the Ethereum Classic chain, this will simply cause a massive bloodshed on the Ethereum Classic Order Book, most of the coins will be dumped immediately, as this will be seen as free cash by the holders.

Similar behavior is what happens when the FED prints money and gives it to the banks, the banks take the money and dump it on the market causing everything else to increase in value against it (AKA inflation).

Demand: In the short run some demand will occur as this is now on the news, but after few days I believe the demand will vanish.

We are already seeing the effects of this:

http://coinmarketcap.com

2. Eventual Lack of Support in the long run

With regards to the future, I don't see much prospect on it as the main chain will always be the most supported one. After all according to the hard-fork voting, only about 15% of the voters disagree with the hardfork.

http://www.carbonvote.com/

HOWEVER....

However, there are some potential good things to point out about ethereum classic.

One thing ethereum classic can be used to is for development testing before moving a DAPP to the main chain.

This has the potential to increase the quality of testing and therefore to provide much more quality in the DAPPs/Smart Contracts economy.

Steem

Steem surprised everyone by jumping to the top 3 cryptocurrency just few days ago.

The main reason why I think Steem will succeed in the long run is that it is very simple to use, unlike almost all other cryptocurrencies... after all with steemit.com you don't have to wait for the blockchain to sync, worry about transaction fees or gas, it designed to used by the average people, and this is a big PLUS.

After all, where else are you paid by others for posting stuff online?