Will China Overtake The United States?
With the collapse of communism in 1989, the bipolar world order ended and the United States became the undisputed leader of the world. The failure of communism and the rapid growth in the US economy in the 1990s have led to a great deal of enthusiasm in Western countries. The free market economy is said to be a magic recipe for every problem. This enthusiasm had reached such a point that Francis Fukuyama declared the end of history in his book "The End of History and The Last Man" published in 1992. According to the prevailing view of the time, liberal values and the market order, which should not subject to any control, would spontaneously solve all problems in the world. As Russia and the former Soviet countries moved to the free market economy, Chinese communist regime, which implemented an original mix of free market economy and communism has continued.
The period of exuberant growth during the 90s ended with the explosion of the dot.com balloon in 2000. Technology stock prices fell to one fourth in two years compared to the peak it saw in 2000. Over the years, things have improved and a new period of rise has begun in the stock markets. The world economy was shaken again by the mortgage crisis in the USA in 2008 due to uncontrolled lending mechanisms and authentic financial assets. Especially in Europe, the crisis that has led to a long recession that seems to have been overcome for the past few years.
Chinese economy has been steadily growing since 1978.
Source: Worldbank Data, Visualization by Google
This stable growth has made China the only economic power that can be compared to the US in the world.
Source: Worldbank Data, Visualization by Google
The above data does not include year-end 2017. The chart below, including the 2017 year-end data, shows what will happen if China continues its successful growth story.
Source: bloomberg.com
If Chinese economy continues to grow by 6.5% and the United States by 2%, China could surpass the United States in terms of GDP in the second half of the 2020s.
Although China has achieved an economy of up to 62% of the US in terms of total economic size, the US is at a standstill in per capita income. The development of per capita income statistics, based on purchasing power parity, is shown below.
Source: Worldbank Data, Visualization by Google
In the discussions on whether developing countries can reach the same level to developed countries, there is a threshold called the medium income trap. In countries whose economy is based on exports, it becomes difficult to maintain economic growth as wages rise after a while. Countries such as South Africa and Brazil have not surpassed this threshold for years after reaching a certain economic size. Such a situation is also valid for Turkey. When evaluated on dollar basis, the Turkish economy has been counting on the same national income per capita for nearly 10 years. I wonder if after a while China will fall into the middle income trap? In order to judge, we need to examine the situation of China in terms of innovation and advanced technology.
Technologies such as internet and blokchain that enable me to deliver this article to you are of U.S. origin. Steemit is also a U.S. company. Does it make sense to discuss whether China will be able to pass the United States in a while?
My interest in China has increased with my researchs of the topics of advanced technology. I have obtained the following map of Google trends for search statistics of the word artificial intelligence. Dark blue indicates intense volume of searches.
Source: https://trends.google.com.tr
The map below shows the world-wide search volume for the word blockchain
Source: https://trends.google.com.tr
Among the indicators we can measure the performance of a country in terms of advanced technology and innovation are the number of patents received, the number of published academic articles.
In 2017, for the first time in history China entered the world's top five in terms of the number of patents.
Source: Bloomberg.com
China has passed the United States in the number of academic papers published in 2016. Contrary to 426,000 articles published in China in 2016, 409,000 articles were published in the United States.
PISA results are one of the most important statistics to predict the future performance of a country. China is performing quite well in statistics that compare the performance of 15-year-old students in mathematics, reading and science. According to the results announced in December 2016, Chinese students' scores in mathematics were 531 and American students' scores were 470. In the field of science, Chinese students' scores were 518, while American students' scores were 496. When Singapore and Hong Kong are included in the picture, the picture becomes much more dramatic in favour of China. You can see the details here
Can China become the leading country in the world with its successful economic performance? To understand this, we need to look at social indicators as well as economic indicators. The Social Development Index, which measures the capacity of a country to meet the basic needs of its citizens and to provide them an environment in which they can maintain and improve their quality of life, can be a good indicator of this.
Source: https://www.socialprogressindex.com/results
China seems to have a lot to do on this issue. In comparison to other developed countries, though, the United States is not at a good point with regard to these social indicators.
Will China be the leading country in the world by overtaking the United States? The gross national income of the United States passed England in 1899. Nearly 50 years after the United States became the leading country in the world. It happened after World War II. Even if China passes the United States in terms of GDP in the second half of the 2020, it seems that the leadership of the United States will continue for a long time.
The emergence of an alternative super power to the United States is good news for the rest of the world. A world order in which leading countries and opposing ideologies compete to convince the peoples of the world is better for us.
Thanks for reading.
Image Source: https://pixabay.com
The main reason China growing fast last 30 years is that China is the world factory. But the role is going to an end now. In order to overtake U.S., China has to beat U.S. in new technology in next decades.
I think china would beat U.S on a condition, and thats if the technology level of USA stops or declines which is not possible, its never been in the history of U.S.A that their technoly advancement delines, theres always provision ahead for the advancement in their technology ...
It also seems that China is ahead of the game in terms of app development. I mean WeChat is like a super app and not too mention their very Black Mirror-esque implementation of the Citizens Rating system...
America was the worlds factory for WW2. That's how we gained the economic drivers seat. At that time, made in America was a stamp of durability. The world is much bigger than technology. With the rise of cryptocurrencies, the playing field is much more level than it was. Those who serve always seem to rise to the top. They are willing to work long hard hours.
China has better government (yea it’s communist but it’s the most capitalist country in the world), they actually want to fix the flaws and really do things for people. There is also only one party in China meaning there is no conflict between parties. Having one party means that they don’t have to waste a bunch of time (time is gold) and tens of billions of dollars every 4 years just because people needs to elect a new leader. President in China is not elected by whoever that runs the prettiest campaign but by the National People’s Congress, judged by you as a person (good or evil), past contributions and achievement, moral, sense of justice, determination, thoughts, education etc… This cancels out the chance of a having a incompetent idiot who will run the country for the next 5 years.
Currently, US is the leader of world's economy but soon it will be overtaken with China if the huge businessmen withdraw the support from Pres Trump.
The issue with this theory is, china rely on our markets just as much as we do theirs. As their market go's up so does ours. They have just been working on deals with more countries as those start to be countries who are starting to get really into consumerism.
Id be more worried about india taking lead then china, they just keep leaping in yearly gdp. China plays with the worth of their currency so often id be more concerned a worldly collapse again because they have massive internal debt which is just as bad as owing money to someone else.
Too many traffic jams caused by elephants and bulls fighting in the street.
Actually now the US have a very bad foreign diplomacy. What is happening now? China is going to make deals with the eastern part of the EU. But few weeks before they had meetings also with Angela Merkel. So if China make a stronger realtionship with the EU u will see what will happen. Right now if there is a conflict than the europian countries work together with US but now the EU is also opening slowly to Russia and China and also to Iran.
I agree his diplomacy skills are extremely poor, pulling of the Paris climate change accords and Iran deal, imposing tariffs on china, under his administration. America's own allies have lost faith in the country, just recently he wanted Russia back in the G7 this just gave me a good assurance that he is actually Putin's own spy, not that I really care anyways.
Honestly most of my friends we tought that he will be a good president. We tought he is a sucessfull businessman the politic is same. But now what i see is just a clown trying to get more atention. But i am really curious when US will have a leader who dont wanna make trouble or war.
Bussiness men and politicians are vastly different professions with different skill sets, Trump doesn't know how diplomacy works nor doesn't know how to treat it's allies. In the Business world it's either black or white and there are very limited oppurtunities for compromise in politics it's a grey area where you have to compromise with a lot of things.
Yes i agree. As i told we just tought that he will be good. By the way i am following the news every day so i am updated. Not he is the only one bad leader😁
trump will probably ruin America, think he already has a little.
which part? My portfolio has record growth. I am surprised every month when I read my statement, "Thank the Trump!" I exclaim.
America's economy has experienced good improvement
So renegotiating so the US is in a better economic position and more competitive will cause our economy to be overtakes?
Awesome .. Post beautiful
Well done .. good for you the place looks great
Thanks for sharing your experience..
Maybe Trump and his kids can keep us on top. lol
Especially his son 😃
I would probably pick Ivanka over his son but either one should do fine.
You might want to self upvote yourself or use @dustsweeper. My solo upvotes get zeroed out with the payout threshold.
2248/5000
good friend is a good analysis that you did sometimes we have to look at several points of view. If we are not going a little years ago, china was a country invaded by many countries was so attacked that they left him in poverty and invaded by many companies foreign, they used the Chinese as cheap labor so the product that make it in the United States had a cost for example of 10 dollars to produce in China the same foreign company with Chinese labor had a cost of 3 dollars, this happened with many companies, until one day a Chinese president called monsetu told the Chinese to copy the technology of these companies that he was setting up a barn and putting the money and stealing the projects of foreign companies were going to be the leaders of these new companies producing the same product but cheaper so they managed to break the companies to which they had copied their product and take it out of their country, this they did with each of foreign companies that were within your country.
they copied the technology of the other countries and began to produce it in masses but with a detail they did not have quality control, that's why their products were so cheap, that they were sold in all the countries of the world, they cared about the quantity and not the quality, that's how they came to have money again. From that moment on, they dedicated themselves to improving the products and they took away that bad reputation they had that Chinese products did not work.
If in any country the work schedule was of 6 and 8 hours a day the Chinese work from Sunday to Sunday from 7 in the morning to 9 at night, they take care of their work because behind each Chinese there are 10 thousand Chinese people waiting for him.
I think it has been their tireless work, and the improvement of the technology they had copied that has made them such a developed country, and the country and its people are dedicated to improving it, they had in their minds a goal, each one of them they with whom I spoke said that their revenge towards the United States was not going to be a war of bullets but of technological development that someday they were going to be better than them, that was my experience when I lived two years in that country. I hope you liked it. history
I heard a story about a architect that was contracted to build a building in China and they actually completed the copy they made from the stolen plans before the original building!
Did you rate the article 2248/5000 or something?
In my mind, there is absolutely no doubt that China will overtake USA, and become the biggest and maybe even the most powerful economy in the world!
The fact alone, that they have a population that is almost 4 times bigger than USA.
Looking at the Chinese schools, and education system, they are probably the ones who have come the furthest, when you look at the skills that the children are learning at an early age..It scares me to see the education system in my own country, where the main focus is to get everyone through, not really taking care of the children who have special skills...making sure that the country is provided with a workforce with special skills...Another worrying focus is the teachers...their main concern is their salary..basically not caring about creating the best learn space for the children...That is where China i way ahead of us!
In the western economies, the workforces are paid too high salaries to compete in the long run...the chinese are able to hire three for the price of one..and they can sell the manufactured goods at a much lower price..
So in the long run, the western economies are being left behind...sad but true!
I agree with what you say but as one who understands the different classes in economics.....why (if i was apart of the working poor) would i want to work for a lower wage? Do you think the lower wages are a result Chinese citizens wanting to be more competitive in the global economic market place or because democracy and freedom aren't as important to the Chinese status quo?
Also i find it ironic that China literally has laws preventing the number of children a family can have whereas in America we just use subtle indirect methods of population control like gun violence, drugs and disease.....
No, they don't choose the low wages voluntarily..it's just how their economy works..Things are generally cheaper, people don't need that much money to live..that keeps the wages down...so democrazy..or the lack thereof..
Well, they have to have the one-child policy..otherwise there will be no work, not enough food produced in China...Then they would have to import more...putting an upwards pressure on prices...making them less competative..
They really got it figured out..
Absolutly correct. And also what i experienced that even in the poor wester europian countries the education is better. Why? Because they are poor. So if they have a good education they can work abroad.
No, because education is their main concern..Not to get better working hours, union trouble or higher salaries..
We, in the west are far too spoiled!
in roughly the same amount of land, is that an advantage?
Well, it means that they have to be far more efficient with everything they do...That effectivenes makes them very competative..
Land size means nothing in this matter, but of course ressources could be a problem..
There is a population of untreated mentally ill people in China as large as the American population. Of course their lack of resources is a disadvantage. China has to import human manure for their crops already.
Didn't hear that one with the manure🙂 The Chinese workforce is enormous...people working from the age of 5 till 75 or more..With all the child labour, it's no wonder they can keep the salaries down..
They import it by the shipload from Hong Kong. They have to also import a lot of their energy and raw materials, they are resource poor. I was assembling grills one time and occasionally we would find tiny footprints in the dust on the sheet metal.
Wow 2020 that is pretty soon! On the other hand, there are almost 4x the amount of people living there. In order for the GDP per capita to surpass a lot would need to happen.
A young Justin Bieber taught me to Never say Never so I'll say not in my lifetime!
Short answer: yes
Long answer: The US is a bloated oligarchy run by corporations with too many inefficiencies to name. We have forsaken infrastructure and education to maintain our image of world police. These missteps are slowly but surely catching up with us as shown by our diminishing standing in the world economy.
I could say that right now, United States began its policy of not allowing inmigrants wich can bill the economy in less than ten years. Building the wall will cost a huge debt which will make US entry in the bankruptcy process, even worse than the big depression happened in 1929.
China is running to be the superpowered country in the world. Nobody knows the political conflicts happening in Chinese territory -Taipei and Tibet is one of the examples- the over population and excessive consumptions are decreasing the life quality of chinese people. If we look at India, the economy has growth faster as the population in the last twenty years. So, it's probably that even China will be overtaken by India in 25 years from now...
We don't have a policy of not allowing immigrants, we welcome immigrants. Building the wall won't cost Americans a dime in the long run, Mexico will be paying for it, but even if they weren't we can afford it. It will save us money in the long run.
Does China allow illegal aliens to flow freely into their country, why or why not?
No. Mexico won't -and they are not forced to- pay for a wall made by the U.S Government against mexican and centro-american inmigrants. Trump speech on inmigration is a huge bullshit to justify racism and protect racist people from trials
The fact about mexican pay for something who damage them is try to avoiding -very stupidly- the unstoppable bankcruptcy of United States. It is just as i build a house that you will pay for and you won't be able to live. Incomprehensible...
A wall would be good for Mexico and Mexicans as well, the Mexican state also has an interest in securing its borders, legal immigrants are more than welcome, come on in the front door, illegal drug smuggling and jumping the fence is not good for anyone involved, why do you want it to be easy for people to be smuggled here to be treated as second class citizens at best and slaves at worst?
It's more like "good fences make good neighbors" I am sure we will offer the Mexicans generous financing terms on our border wall. Maybe in exchange we can help them beef up the southern border they are having problems with.
Why is it that those who play the race card insist on calling illegal aliens "immigrants"? Are all Mexican and centro-american immigrants illegals?
I like how you choose not to answer my question.
Would be good? LOL! Get out the bubble man!
There is a world in chaos. Trump is ruining the world by making your country great as he see. So greed. For Trump, people from holes of dirt like African countries, Mexico and Venezuela are illegal aliens, and people from nice land like Sweden, Denmark and Norway are inmigrant. And i repeat, Mexico won't pay a dime for that fucking wall. Get it!!!!
Nope for Trump legal immigrants with skills are good, no matter where they come from, and illiterate criminal illegal alien gang members are bad. You seem to be in the MSM bubble and actually believing their editorials and fake news. We have a lot of ways to make Mexico pay, they are very dependent on us. If we want them to pay they will pay, no matter what some impotent Mexican president says. Trump wants to expand legal immigration and has stated on many times his desire for congress to reform immigration laws and protect the so called dreamers. You should ask yourself where you are getting your information about Trump and why those people want to feel the way you do and whose interests that serves.