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PREDICTING THE FUTURE

The future is something that has been keeping the human mind busy since we’ve had enough cognitive power to start planning it, dream about it and in many cases, trying to predict it. We are fascinated by the endless possibilities that may lie in it but also troubled by our inability to control all aspects of it. Scientists have been trying for many years to speculate about how our civilization will change throughout the forthcoming decades, centuries, even millennia. Most of these speculations are usually products of sheer imagination combined either with optimism or pessimism, depending on each individual. But what happens when we try to speculate about the technological future of humanity (or the technological present of extraterrestrial civilizations) using ‘rules’ of the universe that we already know, such as the laws of physics? Things then start to escape the sphere of imagination and speculation and become more real, plausible and feasible. So, how can the quantum theory, the laws of thermodynamics and relativity be useful in taking a glimpse of the future?

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There is nothing more universal than energy. It is everywhere; in the air, in the water, in our bodies, even in stars, galaxies and vacuums. Energy is what powered the beginning of the industrial revolution, the beginning of a completely new era of human technological advances. Very often you hear clueless environmental activists arguing that fossil fuels are the biggest evil in the world, but the truth is that they provide us the energy that we need to power everything that you see around you. Without this energy, nothing that makes up our world today would have been possible. As technology became more and more sophisticated, our energy needs have increased exponentially. Having that in mind, would it be possible to say that the energy consumption of a civilization is a direct indication of how technologically advanced it is?

Nikolai Kardashev, a Soviet astronomer, believed exactly that. In 1964 he proposed that we can measure the technological advancement of a civilization based on its energy consumption and we can use these measurements to classify them into 3 different types, Types 1, 2 and 3. The concept is simple. The more energy a civilization is using the more technologically advanced it is. He also suggested that in our search for extraterrestrial life, we should look for signs of artificial energy utilization. Later on, scientists added three more types to Kardashev’s classification, Types 0, 4 and 5. So, what are these types exactly, where does humanity currently belong to and what does this say about our future?

Type 0 – Subglobal Culture

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This is a civilization that can harness the energy available on its planet but it’s not 100% efficient yet. The members of this civilization are able to mine the earth for raw materials and use sources like oil, coal and wood to fuel their energy demands. A more advanced Type 0 civilization is able to use energy from water, air and nearby stars but with a very low efficiency. Such a civilization has capabilities of building big structures, basic methods of transportation and communication but it is mostly confined within the limits of its own planet.

Type 1 – Planetary Culture

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This is a civilization the members of which have become complete and absolute masters on their own planet. They can harness all energy that exists or falls on their home planet with perfect or nearly perfect efficiency. They have control of all natural forces on their planet such as earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes. Fusion power and renewable energy fuel the enormous energy demands of such a civilization which is multiple times more than the current energy demands of our species. It is a planet which functions and exists in unity with global economies, transportation, languages and cultures. The need for hierarchical divisions and governments is getting less and less since technology is already providing a stable environment for the beings of this civilization.

Type 2 – Stellar Culture

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This is where things start to become more hypothetical and hard for the human mind to conceive. Type 2 civilizations are starting to become the complete rulers of the space around them. They are able to harness all of the energy of their star (like the Sun). They can extract hydrogen out of nearby gas giants and use highly advanced fusion power to convert it to energy. Their energy utilization would be comparable to the luminosity of our sun, a level that we cannot even conceive as humans. Such civilizations are able to not only harness energy from the universe around them but they can also control it and even modify. This makes the practically immortal since nothing known to science today could potentially wipe them out. Some scientists, fascinated by this type, they have even suggested hypothetical methods on how the total energy output of a star will be used. Perhaps you have heard of the Dyson Sphere, a theoretical mega-structure that can completely surround a star and harness its energy.

The Dyson Sphere
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Type 3 – Galactic Culture

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As the name implies, this civilization is able to harness all the energy output of its own galaxy. They are able to easily move between all planets and stars of their galaxy and control them in any way that they desire. Members of this civilization will have colonized the entire galaxy and they may not have a purely biological form any more. They could exist as cyborgs or as entirely, self-replicating robotic beings. Building of new stars and planets would be possible and they would slowly start to push the boundaries of the laws of physics. If humans ever reach these stage, when they look back in history they will probably view us the same way that we view our ape ancestors or even simpler forms of life.

Type 4 – Universal Culture

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Kardashev did not believe that a technological advancement beyond Type 3 would be possible, but some modern scientists seem to disagree. They believe that a civilization could become so advanced that only the boundaries of the Universe would limit it. Intergalactic travelling would be an everyday task and the energy of the entire Universe would be available to be used. The capabilities of such a civilization are beyond our current comprehension and they will start to push the boundaries of space and time.

Type 5 – Multiverse Culture

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These beings have such an unimaginable power that they will be able to alter and move between different dimensions and through the limitations of space and time. They will be literally ‘Godlike’ and to our eyes they would be completely indistinguishable from nature itself. For now, such concepts belong only in the supernatural and the metaphysical world.

THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF HUMANITY

As you may have probably guessed, the human civilization currently belongs to Type 0. It wasn’t long ago that we started using the earth’s raw materials for our energy needs and it’s only recently that we have become any good at using the power of the sun. According to current estimations, the earth receives only one billionth of the Sun’s energy and from that we only use one millionth. By calculating the current energy demands of humans, seeing how this energy demand has increased exponentially during the last few years and taking into consideration the energy which can be harnessed from earth, scientists predict that humanity is really not that far away from reaching a Type 1 status. In fact, physicists such as Michio Kaku, believe that we are just 100-200 years away from that.

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We could be living in historic times. A period of time that future humans will look back and describe as the turning point, which changed the course of our civilization forever. We live in the transition from Type 0 humans to Type 1. We are now closer than ever to become a completely planetary civilization which will be in absolute control of their planet and all the energy that it can produce. The signs are already all around us. We are already making the planet a smaller place by using our advances in transportation. Internet fulfils all the criteria of a Type 1 telecommunications technology. Globalization and multiculturalism are not speculations anymore but our reality. The boundaries between humans are becoming less and less and all of that is thanks to our technological advances. The world of digital currencies that is just emerging is also characteristic of a Type 1 civilization and will make everyday transactions easier, more efficient and more decentralized than ever before.

But the question is: What makes this transition we are experiencing, the biggest moment of our history? The answer is simple. Our civilization is still fragile, still vulnerable to natural destruction such as tsunamis, earthquakes, super-volcanoes. It is still vulnerable to extraterrestrial threats such as comets, asteroids and super-novas. And it is also vulnerable to our self-destructing capabilities. If one day we manage to reach Type 2 or Type 3 level, we will be literally immortal. As the absolute, godlike masters of the space around us, nothing will be able to destroy us. We will be able to deal with any threats before they even become dangerous for us. But we will only get there, if we are able to make it through this risky transition to a Type 1 civilization. Look at all the technology around us today and imagine that all of this is possible by using a tiny fraction of the energy available to us. All the sun energy that reaches the earth in a couple of hours could be enough to power the earth for a whole year. So imagine how advanced our civilization will be, if we require all that energy to satisfy our demands and to power our world. And then, take a look up in the sky. How many godlike, stellar or galactic civilizations have reached us? How many of them we know? If they actually exist, why are they so rare? Could their absence be explained by the fact that very few civilizations actually manage to make that critical transition from Type 0 to Type 1? For now we can only speculate, because only the future will reveal if humans will become the rulers of this Universe or just another extinct civilization that just didn’t make it.

Sources
http://www.sandia.gov/~jytsao/Solar%20FAQs.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
http://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-extraterrestrial-civilizations/
http://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/this-mind-bending-scale-predicts-the-power-of-advanced-civilizations
https://futurism.com/the-kardashev-scale-type-i-ii-iii-iv-v-civilization/

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