RE: [ANALYSIS] Genesis Mining "lifetime" BTC Cloud Mining Contracts
In your table above, I disagree with your USD per BTC column. (When I made my first post I made some very conservative BTC price estimates that have now proved to be unrealistic.) In July the price is more likely to be $3,000 USD instead of $2,200 USD.
Further out projections for USD per BTC have BTC prices at $5,000 around September 2017 and $13,800 around February 2018.
Here is a link that build the case for BTC price progression
By February 2018 your chart has the difficulty going up approximately 2.36 times. Yet the price expectations are for a price increase of 5.52 times. In this case the potential payout in USD should keep ahead of the difficulty increase.
Thus if the price appreciation stays ahead of the difficulty increase rate, the contract is likely to do well.
I do agree that the Ethereum contract is likely to do well.
For the Genesis Mining X11 contract, I have recouped the USD I put into it in much less than 2 years. Unfortunately the X11 contract is not available for purchase from Genesis Mining at this time.
Everyone should keep in my that any investment has risk and cryptocurrencies including mining contracts are speculative investments. Much research and self-education should be undertaken before making an investment.
@mkaya, very good post!
I am currently focusing on BTC mining and recouping my original investment well before the next halving event in 2020. For this reason I will stop purchasing BTC upgrades in September 2017. The only reason I can think of that will change my mind is a BTC price rise that even blows away my high expectations.
Thank you for alerting me to your post.
Have a great weekend!
Steem on,
Mike
Hi @etcmike, thanks for your input. You are right that I have used very pessimistic BTC forecasts until 4/18 - my intent was to show the worst case scenario. For further price estimates after 4/18 I've used exactly those BTC values that will make this contract "survive". (Any BTC price lower than those will trigger 20 days clause)
So, if the BTC price really lies over $10k next year, it will turn out good for the BTC contract. However if not, the BTC contract will most likely die in the second year. We'll wait and see.
In my opinion, instead of putting your money into an investment over which you will have no control, it is better to just buy BTC and trade with altcoins on exchanges such as Bittrex or Poloniex.
Overall, I think it is a very good time to invest in cryptocurrency. The interview below talks about how the millenials do not participate in traditional money markets and how the price of cryptocurrencies will increase once they catch public attention at some point. Cheers!
Yes, I have been looking at returns in two different ways, how long it takes to recoup the USD investment and how long it takes to recoup a BTC investment. It does make a difference. With a rising BTC price, the USD investment is recouped faster than the number of BTC used to buy the mining contract.
Great discussion and good points.
Have a nice day!
Steem on,
Mike
Thank you guys for this brilliant information. And @etcmike you have a great avatar. Check out Scrooge McDuck - His Life his Times by Don Rosa.
I feel that it is most important to be clear on what your objective is as an investor. Are you looking to make money/$ and profit on the contract or are you looking to generate btc/altcoins to hold onto for the medium-long term.
Personally, I am doing the later. I want to use my btc and eth contracts to generate coins and hope that they remain valid though the life of the contract - 1-2yrs on BTC and 2yrs on eth. Having completed a month on each, I now ONLY mine alts with both contracts through the automine option. I later exchange thes into 8 different coins on poloniex that look promising.
Sounds like a good strategy.
My objective is an additional passive income from mining. That is why in my latest post on BTC mining I gave the difference between recouping initial USD investment and the initial coin investment. Typically recouping the initial investment in coins takes longer.
Great comment!
Steem on,
Mike
Read your post on mining. The chart is a great way to estimate safety levels and if one has the capacity to tweak (diversify) the investment, nothing better. In the end it is all about putting in a 100% effort to ensure 150% returns.
I like your strategy. What is your genesis referral code? My code is: RUXnyi
Love the information in these posts. If your pessimistic about the BTC mining, are you optimistic about any other mining (such as the ether mining contract) or just pro buying the coins instead?
Hi, sorry for the late reply I was on a business trip for the last four daysi didn't have the chance to reply.
I think ETH mining looks bright for now, but I'll also make a detailed analysis on it considering the recent price changes and ETH mining protocol. -- stay in touch :)
I have 48.5mhs of the ETH contract on Genesis. I am using it to automine BTC (they mine the most profitable alt and convert to BTC), automine STEEM or ETC straight up (bound to go higher as ETH difficulty bomb makes mining impossible). This is giving me decent returns and I will make profits well before contract expiry.
My concern is **what happens to the contract once Vitalik & Co implement PoS **(later this year... hopefull 2018)??? Will Genesis honour the 2-yr contract and let us mine Alts?
I consider Genesis to be the leader in cloud mining and hope that the case is the latter. I'm betting on that and reinvesting in the ETH contract each week.
In the end, it depends on your timeframe and ability (to trade coins and grow your investment). I prefer to mine and accumulate for 2020 rather than investing $10k and riding the rollercoaster of BTC market to High blood pressure
mining on your own hardware is also an option. my old 280x and an amd cpu are still bringing in $150+ a month. Try minergate if you're tech averse