Yesterday was a tough day for me in terms of betting. I posted a bet and Club Brugge got demolished. But that was not the only mistake I made. I also wrongly predicted that Lazio would not lose at home against AZ and that Dortmund would not lose against Chelsea. And to make matters worse, I chased my losses and created another combo bet, but I had the same feeling about Dortmund, which ended up losing again. I should have taken the loss and moved on.

It was a tough lesson, but I learned it. I hope!

Today's bet

Today, there are only two Champions League games. When the first leg was played, I made some good predictions and correctly predicted a win for both AC Milan and Bayern, which had odds of over 7. However, things may be different this time around.

Bayern vs PSG

I'm not sure if Neymar's injury will have a big impact on PSG's performance. In fact, I often feel like they play better as a team when he's not on the field. PSG will be arriving in Munich with three consecutive wins under their belt, while Bayern have won two games since the first leg but also suffered a loss to Gladbach in an away game.

Although I'm leaning towards Bayern advancing to the next round, they don't necessarily need to win. However, playing too defensively could backfire given the offensive power of PSG. Let's not forget that PSG had plenty of chances in the first leg and arguably deserved a draw. Rather than looking at the odds for a Bayern win, I think it's safer to explore other markets.

The both teams to score and over markets have caught my attention. Both teams have impressive attacking abilities, and aside from a few games this season, they have consistently scored in their matches. Bayern have even scored in all their home games this season. However, I personally prefer to avoid odds below or around 1.5, and the odds for both teams to score fall in that range.

If both teams do manage to score, then the over market only needs one more goal to be successful. This is quite likely considering that PSG will have to push forward and try to erase Bayern's away goal, which could open up counter-attacking opportunities for Bayern. I can even see PSG scoring a second goal during the match. However, to increase the likelihood of this scenario, Bayern would need to score a goal in the first half. If PSG takes the lead, we'll be back to square one. Unfortunately, the odds for the over are also below 1.5, which I generally prefer to avoid.

Overall, this game will be a close and tough one to predict. I personally like to play safer bets, so I'll be exploring other markets that have odds that are more to my liking.

Tottenham vs AC Milan

In the Tottenham vs AC Milan game, Milan won the first leg 1-0, but it will be another tough game to call. Both teams lost their latest league game, with Tottenham losing away at Wolves and Milan losing against Fiorentina. Milan looks like two different teams at home and away, winning only 5 of their 13 away games this season in Serie A. Tottenham has won their last 3 home games, including a victory over Man City. None of the 5 latest confrontations between these teams resulted in an over, so the odds are around 2. The odds for both teams to score are just below 2, indicating that according to the bookies, this is a coin flip. The first half could have a major impact on the storyline, and a first-half goal for Milan could be disastrous for Tottenham, while a first-half goal for Tottenham won't change much. Both teams will enter the field with the idea that they have to score, and I think both teams will score. I will go for both teams to score with odds of 1.85.

With all the analysis and considerations made, it's time to pick a bet for the Bayern vs PSG game. As mentioned earlier, the both teams to score and over markets are ruled out due to the low odds, and the 1X2 market is too hard to call. While my heart says Bayern, I'm not confident enough to bet on them.

So, I'll switch to the player to score market. I assume that PSG will score at least once, so I'll take Mbappe to score anytime with odds of 2.55. Mbappe is PSG's most valuable player, and he's been in great form this season with 23 goals in 31 appearances in all competitions.

This gives me parlay odds of 4.718, which is good enough for me. While it's always a risk to bet on a single player to score, I believe Mbappe has the potential to make an impact in this game, even if PSG doesn't win

All bets are placed using this bookie!

Disclaimer

It is always a good idea to do your own research and to carefully consider the risks and potential returns before placing any bets. I am not a professional punter, for me it is just a hobby. I do place most of my bets in advance and do keep records of all my bets, but it is not encouraged to follow my bets blindly!