Echoes of the 2008 Stock Market Crash and Housing Meltdown? By Gregory Mannarino
Before I begin this article, let me say this. At the present time there appears to be a heavy dose of irrational exuberance associated with this stock market however, that does not mean that a crash or a meltdown is going to happen tomorrow. With that said, let's put a few things into perspective.
For those of us that lived through the 2008 stock market crash and housing meltdown, we are beyond any doubt hearing many of the same commitments being made by market participants, consumers, homebuilders, and the mainstream financial pundits today.
The loudest echo that I hear making it to the mainstream is home builder sentiment, which if you recall right at the top of the housing bubble was in a state of obvious irrational exuberance. Right at the top of the housing bubble, when everyone was gleeful that homebuilder sentiment was skyrocketing, the bubble burst. Consumer confidence was also climbing right at the top of the 2008 bubble. Moreover, again right at the top of the 2008 market crash, consumer credit, and subsequent consumer debt, was eerily familiar to what we are seeing today.
The rise of cryptocurrency, the "in our face," deliberate suppression of the price action of gold and silver by the major banks by using derivatives (many have been caught red handed doing this) are also in my view big tells that we may indeed be close to yet another meltdown in the capital markets.
Gregory Mannarino
Just about everything we know except precious metals seem to be inflated. For the past month everything has been so difficult to predict or understand. It makes it very difficult to choose what directions you should follow, with that being said i am staying with metals and crypto.
Thanks for the great article Greg. happy steeming. Resteemed.
I agree! Shame that I cant make some more of my friends and family understand this situation clearly.
I am certainly the black sheep at this moment in time.
Although I wish the day would come that I could have some justification in my opinions I also fear it because many people whom I know and love will find themselves in the most awful of situations possible.
Welcome to the club. I think your story is happening to a lot of us who have woken up.
My family is the same way they think that $100.00 bill is worth more anything. I hear it all the time "why would i want to buy 5oz of silver with my $100.00 bill." They just dont get it.
Wait until they Federal Reserve (Debt) Notes crash and they turn in their 100 dollar bills to the bank for a 1 dollar coin... Not a silver or gold coin, but just plain old Common Coinage... I think Pocket Change will increase 100 fold in buying power when the Fiat Dollar crashes... Pocket Change...
Haha - its crazy right, there is no downside to buying silver. It can't go down below production costs.....it has to go up when the stock market turns, The stock market is at an all time high. The stock market has to turn - its a cycle - and silver has to go up. Because its a cycle - Silver has to go higher than $50 - it actually needs to go higher than $110 in the 80's....no downside
NONE
It woyld be very nice to see $110.00. Problem is i dont think there would be much left to buy. Cause once it starts going up people are going to sworm to it.
Yeah if the jump was that rapid the price would just hit no offer because hardly anybody would be selling and we would have to wait it out until silver can be revalued. But hey, at least you have some in your hand!
Silver stackers are the most patient people on the planet!!!
We have no choice. You are right though, we will wait it out.
Aluminum horders have you beat. They're waiting for an entire infrastructurual collapse, followed by a scavenging draught. Only then shall they part with their bars.
They are also chess players. Thinking multiple steps ahead.
Think of it as an insurance policy if anything. Every year you spend money on multiple policies and if nothing happens it's gone. You have no gain and you have to come up with the same amount for next years policy. Precious metals are insurance on your savings/wealth. The thing is you can cash out on every dime that you put in if needed. If things happen like people are saying they will then you could have a big payday too. I don't see a downside to owning the metals at nearly the cost of production....
Most people need to feel comfortable with the mass consensus on just about anything. It's difficult being a prophet around people you care about, until they hear it from someone else, the issue is hidden in plain sight.
When the SHTF they will probably say 'don't say I told you so'
I also get frustrated by my family and the constant 'rolling of eyes'. Sod it, you can't always open a closed mind!!!
Next time you go shopping with the family, price eveything they buy in silver oz. That for sure will get you some eye rolling. My wife doesn't really like to spend money around me cause she knows that i am going to price it in silver
That's funny Ray!!! Yep I'd get seriously beat up for doing that!!!
Add me to that list as well. My family enjoys cognitive disenance and chooses not to accept the truth. sigh At least some of us see whats going on. I too am a black sheep for spreading truth.
Ditto that. "Picking tops and bottoms is the toughest job on Wall Street".
Right on, I'm in the same situation, family and friends think I'm losing it. In most cases I would be happy to tell them I told you so when this takes place, but this will be too sad a situation to rub it in!
Most everyone I know is clueless. I live in the bubble that is called Naples, FL. Everything seems great hear. The streets are full of luxury cars. High end restaurants are full. The low end of new construction hear is $500K.... So when I talk to friends and family about what is coming they just look at me like i'm crazy..... I stopped talking after the crash in 2008. The housing bust that was coming back then was just as obvious. Nobody will event admit that I warned them.... Even those that last their @$$.... I know people that are starting to flip houses now late in the game and i just smile and think. I like that house, maybe I'll pick that one up when it forecloses...
Same here - I've gone all in with silver and crypto - now just sit and wait.......you can feel it in the air "winds of change!"
winds of change :) what a great song. I have been hearing it in my mind for sometime now. Working on the crypto thing I may buy more gold and silver too.
Thats the coming transfer of wealth that you are feeling.
latest Maloney vid is scary
more reasons to keep buying physical silver (and some cryptos) ! Silver is on sale now... the longer it is supressed , the more I can accumulate!
I havent seen it yet. what is the title and date that it came out?
Mike Maloney rules! His youtube videos on the secrets of money are the best around!!!
He is one of many that I follow and pay attention... agreed that the secrets of money was a great series. Check out Greg Hunter's Youtube (his website is usawatchdog.com), he has some great guests... I actually like his guests more than I like him (lol).
Thank you carl for posting this great video. Mike is awesome
Can you post a link?
got it
right now the amount of money moving in to the stock market is incredible. the vast majority is in tech. so they will drive it higher and higher until everyone is ALL IN. then POP...but it may be a while. So ride it while you can.
Congratulations @marketreport!
Your post was mentioned in my hit parade in the following category:
What I want someone to answer is how are mining and metals stock funds going to fare in all of this????? I have some money in them. I cannot transfer that money to gold or silver otherwise I would. If the market has a crash or large correction and metals go up, how would the mining stock funds do?????
Given your assumption that the metals go up I would say your fine especially if you can handle the shortterm volatility, even if the miningshares might do a initial pullback/crash (not saying they will, just saying it could) you own shares of real companies that will make a lot of money if the gold they are sitting on goes up as assumed. Personally Im prepared for both a scenario like 2008 (where everything went down, inclusive miningshares, gold, silver before they skyrocketed) and another scenario where there is no crash or bigger correction and the miningshares explodes higher from the base we are building here, tough times out there right now, most guys that say they know what is gonna happen are either product sellers or liers. Also worth pointing out all miningshares are not the same, different risk in different projects, exploration companies, optionality plays, producers have all different kind of potential and risks, also geopolitical risk, costrising enviroments and other things might be wise to have in mind. Full disclosure I am heavily invested in precious metal shares :)
seams like a crap shoot I am invested in metals too. Smart to do so. Thanks
I invest in miningshares and physical metals for 2 different reasons, miningshares for making $$$ and physical foremost for security & insurance. Not much beating the feeling of holding physical Au & Ag in your hand but I also want the leverage to the upside that miningshares provide. As a sidenote to people that has very limited experience in the mining business it is very volatile and not for everyone, I follow markets daily, for most people I would probably recommend to buy a few of the streamers, Franco-nevada, Wheaton Precious Metal (former Silver Wheaton) & Sandstorm gold. Those are a lot safer plays with less costs, more diversification and huge margins compared to a single mine that has all kind of risks to it.
When metals go up minning will go up as well.
That was what I thought too but was not certain.
Yeah also a subject that I am interested in knowing!
Home prices need to crash. Between homes and rent, prices are getting out of control.
Greg do you think a bigger pull back should be in place for the cryptos?
Good stuff yet again Gregory! Quickly, you seem to have deviated from your stock pick format over on your other web site and your calls/puts seem off?? just curious whats happening there?
Me seeking the answer as well. Answer with a NO in it is enough to give us nightmares.
It's like de je vous, people are over bidding for houses again in the area I live...just like 2007, 2008. Glad I sold a few months ago and renting now.
Hi Greg. Do you think the stock market is in a true bubble or is it a result of hyperinflation? Love your posts you're really on target with your short term predictions. Keep sharing your insights.
Like 2008 except this time the bond bubble (the largest of all) is going to pop too. Gon' be ugly.
Just like 2008... In Florida house value are way up, construction is everywhere, hwy, schools, apartments, houses. Companies are playing with numbers in computers to make it seem like they are selling more than they are to keep getting bonuses. People are loosing jobs the one who got jobs are severely over worked.
The thing is that in 2008 people, including myself, were ignorant and the crash came as a huge surprise. Now people should be warned and cautious , but still you see this strange "lemming" like behavior of people thinking everything is wonderful, ignoring the warning of 2008. This is mind boggling to me!