Will sterling experience a surprise surge against the euro before June 30 2017?

The dynamics required for a successful Brexit may depend as much on political events on the continent over the next 12 months as any given UK domestic factors.

General elections across Holland, France, Germany and possibly Italy may significantly strengthen or weaken the hand of Brussels and the fate (or at least the near term direction) for the euro.

Sterling still has the potential to either spectacularly crash or show surprising magnificently and rally hard in 2017. Whether any of this plays out before the end of June remains unclear.

Specific question: Will the sterling vs euro spot FX rate retrace post-Brexit losses to touch its pre-referendum exchange rate of 1.30 on any day’s close before June 30 2017?

GBP/EUR market close 19th May 2017: 1.1480

Resolution Source: Reuters UK - GBPEUR

First posted 23rd November 2016, the GBPEUR rate was 1.1670