North Korean Crisis: A Point of No Return?

Both the North Korean regime and the Trump administration have recently engaged in a exchange of words that has worried many in academia, diplomatic sphere and elsewhere. Is the current situation far worse than it has ever been? Not quite. Many still remember the North Korean Bombardment of Yeonpyeong on November 2010. I'd argue that was the closest we've been to an all-out war between Western allies and the North Korean regime.

Nevertheless, the situation that we're currently facings resembles the developments that occurred during the Cuban missile crisis. We also have to acknowledge that one crucial element in the de-escalation of that crisis was the agreement between the U.S and the Soviet Union to disassemblement and removal of U.S ballistic missiles from Turkey. Should such solution work in the contemporary political climate? One could wonder whether the removal of THAAD missile system from South Korea would be enough to improve the relations between North Korea and the U.S. However, such solution seems highly unlikely as the North Korean regime seems more unpredictable than ever, which rises concerns in Seoul, Tokyo, Guam, Hawaii and elsewhere about whether their homes are situated on the trajectory of an upcoming missile attack. Consequently, appeasement might be an option in this situation the way it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

In fact, the reality might be on the opposite side of the scale. Although I have previously written about the technical challenges that still limit the North Korean capabilities to deliver an intercontinental ballistic missile to the target in North America, the U.S. military officers are acknowledging the dangers the regime poses to its near abroad. Considering the hightened tensions, the Trump administration and top U.S. military officers might have to consider a pre-emptive strike to minimize the number of casualties and damages to U.S. military infrastructure in Asia-Pacific. Most analysts recognize the marginal impact the economic sanctions will have on North Korean actions in the military domain, and therefore consider the sanctions as the beginning of a larger piece of a complex geopolitical conundrum.