Why Reducing Carbon Emissions Is Not Enough To Stop Global Warming. Estimated Cost of Fixing? USD 89–535 Trillion
Prior to the Industrial Revolution
the carbon cycle contained a finite amount of carbon that was distributed between the atmosphere, life, and short term organic molecule sequestration (like methane deposits in a bog).
This pre-industrial carbon cycle had minimal exit pathways for carbon through Earth sequestration in the form of permanent methane deposits, oil, being blasted into space by solar radiation, and permanently* de-oxygenated sequestration, like trees buried in a landslide. It also had minimal entering pathways for carbon from space dust and geographical features like volcanoes.
*In reality, nothing is permanent and even our world will be scattered across space and decay into EM radiation.
In a short period of time a tremendous amount of carbon reentered the carbon cycle through the burning of fossil fuels. This carbon is not leaving the carbon cycle any time soon and will continue to recirculate until it is re-sequestered or lost to space.
Meaning, we have three realistic options to deal with rising CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans.
1 We can sequester carbon in some form and pump it back into the Earth.
2 We can incorporate carbon into some useful form which will no longer be part of the carbon cycle for some time. This could be done by switching from petroleum based plastics to plant oil based plastics ending in landfills.
3 We can increase the biomass of the planet by terraforming large areas to support more plant and animal life.
Reducing emissions from fossil fuel use alone will not halt global warming.
Some estimate the cost to remove the carbon in the USD 89–535 trillion range [1]. However, they do not seem to have considered incorporating carbon sequestration into existing industries such as plastics production.
Notes:
[1] https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/577/2017/
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