Famous Economist Explains: Proof-of-Stake Tokens are Money, Bitcoin Isn't

in #steem6 years ago (edited)

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Professor Steve Keen is famous for predicting the 2008 crisis along with its cause as well as the scope of the damage. Not only that, the model he used to forecast the crisis using complex systems theory also predicted the "great moderation" that preceded it. That's how I first came across Professor Keen. Like many of us, the Great Recession forced me to reevaluate everything I thought I knew about economics. My first step was to study all of the people who had "predicted" the crisis. After a while it became clear that just because someone "predicted" the crisis didn't necessarily mean that they were "right." Many were just "perma-bears" whose most valuable insight is that if you always forecast a crisis, you'll always be right ... eventually. Many others predicted the recession, but for the wrong reasons which eventually became apparent over time when their predictions would break down.

Not Just an Economist, More of an Anti-Economist

Professor Keen's insights, on the other hand, held up both against deep inquiry as well as against the test of time. He isn't just an economist, mathematician, and econometrician, but he is also a historian of the field of economics which I believe gives his work a level of depth and sophistication that places it at the forefront of the field. It is therefore no surprise that he is using complex systems theory, a relatively new field that is revolutionizing many other disciplines as well. It is complex systems theory which turned weather forecasting from the equivalent of palm-reading to a legitimate science.

As someone who has been interested in cryptocurrencies for many years now (something I also think was driven by the 2008 crisis) I've long been waiting for Keen to weigh in on what we're doing. At the same time there was some reticence as I feared his criticism. If this man I respected so much were to pick apart our work, I would be forced to pay serious attention to his claims. At the same time, I had hope that he would see what we're doing, especially what we at Steemit are doing, and see it as a valuable evolution of the technology. After all, I am quite familiar with his work and don't personally see any conflict between what he says, and what we built.

Today That Hope Became Reality

In a recent appearance on the YouTube channel "Nugget's News" he addressed my concerns head-on saying, "Proof-of-Work is barter, Proof-of-Stake is ... very close to mirroring what money is."

Earlier in the video he goes into more detail on this issue saying:

"The thing that I think was difficult about Bitcoin is that, of course, it wants to have a non-trusted system. You don't need a trusted party. Well that's fundamentally saying, 'We don't need money to do what money does.' And what has actually happened instead is this enormous cost of the verification process... Proof-of-Stake is actually modeling money. Proof-of-Work is modeling barter. If we did actually use gold for transactions you and I would be out in the hills regularly trying to dig the stuff up and then putting large amounts of our physical energy into digging holes in the ground, pulling out a bit of gold and putting it back in another hole in the ground after we got it out. That's a barter model of capitalism. Capitalism is not a barter system."

One of the amazing things about being in this field has been getting to watch as everyone else caught on to what we were doing. To see someone I respect so much not just acknowledge the work generally, but to specifically highlight the type of protocol in which we are pioneers, is more than I ever hoped for.

Thank You Professor Keen

I want to thank the Professor for joining the conversation, and extend an invitation to discuss this matter more fully from a member of the team that launched the fastest blockchain in the world (made possible by its use of Proof-of-Stake) which processes more transactions than both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Why We Use PoS

It's interesting to note that the team chose Proof-of-Stake (Distributed or Delegated Proof of Stake specifically) for very pragmatic reasons. They assessed that DPoS was as secure as PoW but far more efficient which enabled additional features that might never be possible with Bitcoin like storing text on the blockchain as well as 3-second transfers and fee-less transfers. These features have enabled it to process the number of transactions it does while utilizing just .26% of the network's total capacity. Steem does all of this while meeting Keen's definition of money and consuming orders of magnitude less energy than PoW blockchains, a valid concern of Keen's considering the threat of global climate change.

All of that being said, I'm sure Steem isn't perfect which is precisely why we need people like Keen to get involved in the conversation: so that we can make it even better.

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Smart guy. I liked it.

Crypto talk starts around 26 minute and proof of work 32 minute in video.

"These features have enabled it to process the number of transactions it does while utilizing just .26% of the network's total capacity. Steem does all of this while meeting Keen's definition of money and consuming orders of magnitude less energy than PoW blockchains, a valid concern of Keen's considering the threat of global climate change."

Shall i say steem at it best with Blockchain technology

BTC is the nestcape of crypto, good idea at first. But not workable on a global level.

Very cool, I actually didn’t really know much about poW vs Dpos, however, this is a good way to distingush their mechanics within a social structure.

This prof sounds pretty interesting, ill have to check out some of his other work, you know... for proof that he’s as awesome as u say he is ;)

Thanks for sharing, @andrarchy.

Nothing is perfect in the beginning, but it gets better over time. But I do think that PoW and PoS/DPoS have different use-cases.

I believe that Bitcoin will be used to store value into it while steem/ethereum etc. will be used as a way to pay the daily things.

Especially since steem has no transfer-costs which is HUGE - even HUGER than most people realise.

Totally agree, thanks for the thoughtful comment. My one counter would be that Bitcoin may remain a way to store value, but it is highly unlikely that it will ever be a stable store of value (that's kind of the point). So there is an argument to be made that there's no such thing as an "unstable store of value." That the whole utility of stores of value is that they store it at-or-around a price. I do agree with Keen that Bitcoin is more like gold, and that gold can be a good asset to possess in certain situations. Unlike Keen I think that the additional potential use cases for Bitcoin may help support a valuation that is greater than that of gold. That being said, as you point out there are now multiple other protocols out there (of which Steem is only one) which do that stuff better, which begs the question whether Bitcoin will actually be able to compete in those areas. I've been hodling BTC for a while now, and I don't plan to significantly alter that, but I still think it's mainly a speculative investment. Thanks again for the great comment!

hey @andrarchy - thank you for that long reply - feel honored. :)

Exactly, I really think that bitcoin will be like gold. And it will be exciting to see if bitcoin reaches 1 million by 2020 and if McAfee eats his ****..

But on a serious note - the majority of crypto available are better than bitcoin. However, bitcoin is even known to those people who don't understand the principles of blockchain. And this is a huge.

I remember when I got into cryptocurrencies around August - even with IT-background - the concept was hard to grasp and to understand what the difference between Bitcoin and Altcoins was - not easy.

And the first thing I bought at that time was bitcoin ... probably also because it was through coinbase. But exactly that reason is why I also believe that steem will succeed - most people don't even realise that they're using a blockchain while browsing steemit - which is totally underrated in my opinion.

@andrarchy as you said "one counter would be that Bitcoin may remain a way to store value, but it is highly unlikely that it will ever be a stable store of value (that's kind of the point)."

Bitcoin remains as a speculative investment asset

Agreed. To me Bitcoin is an asset and the altcoins (the market itself will decided) which one will increases in value. Also the limited number of coins/tokens make the whole ecosystem kind of cyclic, (after one high price - 'successful' coin will come another) which I find personally interesting and got involved. Do not find that Bitcoin is a speculative asset because Bitcoin is like the 'Father' of it all and it carries a kind of 'relic' sentiment around it, already. Apart of PoW and PoS/DPoS find the Quantum Proof of IOTA system very interesting. I mean very interesting indeed.

Well, if Bitcoin fails, crypto fails at this point. Bitcoin also has the biggest and best development community and the biggest user base by far. All other coins will experience the same growing pains if they get as big. And Bitcoin is not a stable store of value. It's a way to turn trash fiat into wealth.

I think I would disagree with Keen. To me, PoS is more closely related to ownership shares within a given system, not currency.

From this Quora post, we can observe that a currency must meet these requirements:

  1. Generally Accepted
  2. Durable
  3. Divisible
  4. Stable/Consistent
  5. Transportable
  6. Scarce
  7. Easily recognizable
  8. Difficult to Counterfeit

PoS tokens do not fulfill points 4, 5, or 7 and may or may not fulfill point 2's requirements depending on the size of the system.

On the other hand, ownership shares (or a security) represents ownership in a system unique to that system. The ownership share is generally not used for exchange for common goods and services, but is first converted into a currency for market trade.

So for these reasons, PoS tokens seem to act more as demonstrating ownership, or belonging to, a given system.

Curious for your thoughts.

Currency used to represent a store of value, before the 70's, when the US was still on a Gold Standard. That time is nothing more than fairy stories now. Currency is now simply the fuel for our day to day existence. It could intrinsically be worth absolutely nothing, but as long as you can buy the gas for your car and food for your belly with it, it's going to be the only thing you really care about.

Money has become a corrupt instrument of control, a shell of its former theory and function, serving to adhere us to "norms" rather than grant us any liberty. We live in measures of government-subsidized poker chips, and as long as the casino is open, no one is complaining. It stands to reason that blockchain-based currency, a consensus value asset, would reward those who participate in the community, rather than someone who can arbitrarily dig a hole in the ground (metaphorically) the fastest.

Fixed supply PoS coins are going to be the functional reality of cryptocurrency, as their value will be far more consistent and predictable than PoW coins, that are all just trying to emulate Bitcoin anyway. The writing is on the wall folks, Bitcoin is the first (and therefore worst) crypto protocol digital currency platform. Like every other early internet venture it will become a relic when its evolved rivals, who have been carefully studying the competition, start to demonstrate their improved coding platforms. Once users begin to grow accustomed to crypto-utility in practice, Bitcoin will suddenly lose all of its hyperbolic demand. Then, sensing the inevitable, traders will cash out, locking up the network and simultaneously dropping the market price.

It was fun while it lasted, but Bitcoin and PoW are on their last leg.

It may be cliche these days on Steemit, but this is a fantastic post!

Ever since I heard about PoS and blockchains like Bitshares and Steem I felt they were FAR superior in so many ways, especially the ones that really matter for healthy and sustainable revolution to the world.

I have never heard of Keen but now I am very exited to look into his work as I love being on the cutting edge.

∞§∞SteemOn∞§∞

The digging gold out of the ground is a good analogy of Proof of Work. I've been trying to come up with a clever version of the DPoS model, but it really isn't that easy.

The best I can come up with right now is to say that those who have continuous proved that they have performed good work, are more likely to succeed.

Take for an example, why someone would win a contract for a job. If prior results show that they have continuously provided good services by investing in their companies growth with machinery, they have staked their own money back into their own company, there by being more likely to succeed and increases the possibility of the next client trusting the company. This is what PoS does.

Downloaded the video onto my phone and will watch it on the way home! Good post!

Well one way to look at it is that it's just a representative democracy. Instead of requiring everyone digging up gold just so that no one has to manage the money supply we democratically elect people and PAY them (in Steem) to manage the money supply for us in a manner that we have predefined beforehand so as to guarantee that if they fail to do their job they will be immediately replaced and there would be no damage.

@andrarchy as you sure Blockchain is democratic? Absence of central trust

That’s really clear. Great analogy.

An interesting watch but Steve seems to know a lot more about economics than he does about cryptocurrencies. He makes a good point about POW being a huge waste of energy though although this energy could be come from renewable sources in future. The Steem dPOS is very clever and I think we'll begin to see more projects using a similar system beginning with EOS in June or whenever it properly launches

I know am a bit wiser as to the difference between pow and pos Truly greatful for this article will definitely resteem!

I just watched the Max Keiser vs Steve Keen debate so I'm looking forward to watching him in this video too

@andrarchy Very nice informative post and video. Thank you for sharing. I think that Patreon needs to blockchainize and gamify their platform. IMHO, most younger people would prefer to receive donations and crowdfunding in a basket of cryptocurrencies of their choice instead of fiat.

I think once cryptocurrency prices reach steady state (a more reliable store of value), then it'll make more sense to be used as a donation vessel on something like Patreon. Also, the gateway from crypto to fiat needs to improve drastically for crypto to be a desirable modality of donation revenue for content creators. At the end of the day, especially for the creators who've devoted their lives to growing their channels, people value liquidity and spendability over all else and crypto isn't there quite yet. While I'm hopeful for blockchain based used cases to penetrate the donor market, it'll take some time. ;)

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