Completely agree with it all!
One way I look at it and always stress, is that if you’re gaining equal to Steem’s inflation rate, you’re average! This is a harsh truth. In the early days it’s been easy to drastically outperform this. But as you mention, with scale this becomes much more difficult. Steem is not a limitless well of rewards. An “average” minnow beginning their journey with 20 SP when Steem’s inflation rate is 9%, can only expect to have 21.8 SP after 1 year! It’s a tiny number that no one wants to hear...
The optimists will realize they’re doing better than they thought, pessimists will pack up & leave... Either way we need to move beyond Steem only being about monetary reward. That just needs to be the add on benefit to a robust & active social platform that people want to use regardless of earnings.