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RE: STEEMIT: Buy Votes, Get Paid!
It may have come out a little ahead, but I'm guessing you have not accounted for some of the stuff that will come out of that. The author only gets 75% at the highest and there a payout fade as time goes by.
As I understand it, the price shown is based on the seven day average of the price of steem. The payout only fades as time passes if the price of steem is dropping. If the price of steem is increasing, then the payout grows with time.
The fade doesn't only happen because of price of Steem. The fade also happens because the amount of Steem that can be given out to authors/curators is a set amount. As more posts are created/upvoted, the less your content is worth.
For example, lets assume you have 1 marble and you put in a jar. There are 99 other marbles so you own 1% of the marbles. As the week goes on, more marbles get added to the jar by other people...so your 1 marble is now worth less than 1%.
I haven't read the code, but as I understand it, new steem is being added to the rewards pool at basicaly the same rate that the curation rewards are being given out. Similarly, your marble analogy ignores the fact that 7-day old posts are aging out of the pool at roughly the same rate that new posts are being added.
Since the number of rshares allocated for your post is constant and the size of the pool is (roughly) constant, the reason that the post's award appears to change is almost entirely due to the fluctuating price of steem.
If the number of rshares suddenly increased dramatically, the value of all other posts would decrease significantly.
I haven't looked into the numbers, but this could be a factor as well.
For instance, if the @freedom account started using all of it's voting power, every post it voted on would be worth a ton, and every post it didn't vote on would see a huge decrease in its payout.
True. I was oversimplifying. But those sorts of changes will tend to average out over time. My main reason for commenting was just to note that that the pending reward value can drift up as well as down.
You may be right....but if you are then it means the payout fade will stop now that it's been over 7 days since HF.
The reason I don't agree w the the theory that it's only because of Steem price is that the price went up last few days...until last night.
This is actually incorrect. The system is always creating new STEEM.
This can be true, but only if the number of rshares being distributed increases from the level it was at.
Consider checking out this post of mine (past payout) where I go over this stuff in more detail: https://steemit.com/steemit/@shenanigator/the-ultimate-guide-to-steemit-payouts
Yes, the system is always creating more Steem, but it's creating that Steem at a set amount.
That's correct. So if rshares stay constant, the value of current posts isn't affected.
However, if more people start voting (or just 1 big whale), the number of rshares will increase and the value of non-paid posts will fall.
Agree with you. Maybe I was just not saying it clearly, but what I was trying to say you already said perfectly in your guide.
It can work the other way around too...
Let's say a post is currently worth $5. Over the next few days, new Steem is created, but only half as many people are voting compared to recent days. That means there's a lot of new Steem with nowhere to go, so it goes to the posts that already has votes - the ones with pending payouts. Now your $5 post may have increased to $6.
This isn't exactly how it works, but it's the simplest way I know how to explain it.
This is true on a 24 hour basis only, not weekly. If it were true weekly, every payout would shrink, even if the price of steem stayed constant.
This is mostly correct, but there are other factors that affect the payout. In my post The Ultimate Guide To Steemit Payouts, I wrote the following:
Why does my future payout keep changing?
Upvotes will increase your payout and flags will decrease your payout. If you haven't received any new upvotes or flags, there are several other reasons why your payout may have changed:
There is a fixed amount of new STEEM created each week to be dispersed to users as rewards in a rolling 7 day period. At any given time, the system is making an estimate of how much you will be paid based on what percentage of Steem Power-adjusted votes your post possesses.
Let's pretend a piece of content is currently worth $5. But then, many other posts suddenly become highly-upvoted. The money to pay those popular posts needs to come from somewhere, so a portion of your post's value is reallocated to these newly-popular posts. Now your post may only be worth $4.50.
Another reason your payout may change is price movements in the 3.5-day moving average of STEEM. If the price of STEEM increases, the value of your post will increase, all else equal.
edited: messed up my link
If I had to guess, a lot of people don't factor this in, but I was accounting for curation rewards. Also, it's a minimum of 25% that goes to the author. I've had posts where >90% has gone to me, the author.
That will only be the case about half of the time. The other half, payouts increase as time goes on.
According to Steemit help, the author gets a minimum of 75%. Curators get max of 25%. https://steemit.com/welcome#Curation
I said:
You're correct, that was a typo. I meant "it's a minimum of 75% that goes to the author."