Steem Monthly Prices in for November: Now hoping for a Santa Claus Rally

The monthly closing price for November is in. According to @coingecko, it is $0.076703. So, with another ugly month out of the way, we start hoping for a Santa Claus Rally to save 2025 from being the only year on record with 10 months out of 12 where the price declined.

Predictions

As before, let's look at previous predictions. In last month's post, I asked 3 questions:

Here are this month's questions (just for fun):

1. November 30 closing price: up or down from October's close of $0.08414?
2. December 31: Over/under the 2025 opening price of $0.258505?
3. Memorial Day, 2026: Over/under the (US) 2025 Labor Day price of 0.12741?

At this point, the only one that can be answered is the first, and (of course) the price went down.

Here are the results from guessing over 3 the last 3 months:

Three months ago:

account	September change	EOY 2025 change over/under $0.25	seasonal change over/under $0.12741 on Memorial day	# Correct results
@massola	Up	Over	Over	0 / ? / ?
@remlaps-lite	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?

Two months ago:

account	October change	EOY 2025 change over/under $0.25	seasonal change over/under $0.12741 on Memorial day	# Correct results
@massola	Up	Over	Over	0 / ? / ?
@moecki	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?
@remlaps-lite	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?
@mostofajaman	Up	Over	Over	0 / ? / ?
@labibasultana	Up	Over	Over	0 / ? / ?

Last month:

account	November change	EOY 2025 change over/under $0.25	seasonal change over/under $0.12741 on Memorial day	# Correct results
@moecki	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?
@rosselena	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?
@remlaps-lite	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?
@mostofajaman	Up	Under	Over	0 / ? / ?

So, for the 3^rd consecutive month, we had 0 correct guesses. It's getting to the point that I'll need to start a spreadsheet for tracking our guesses, so I'm glad that @blaze.apps has launched SteemPredicts now!

With the prediction results out of the way, let's move on to the numbers.

Monthly percentage changes

• So far, 9 of 11 months in 2025 have seen declines. This is a far cry from what I expected at the beginning of the year. With the BTC halving cycle, I had hoped that 2025 would follow a 2021 trajectory... Oops.
• The record of down months per calendar year is 9 (2018), so we already tied it, and if December drops too, we will beat it.
• The record of consecutive down months is 6 (also 2018), so we're not quite on the cusp of that one.

Monthly price changes (USD)

Monthly closing prices (USD)

• October, 2025 was the previous record-low monthly closing price, but that is now surpassed by November.
• December's closing price will tell us if the old adage is true for the current year, "As goes January, so goes the year."
  • If the closing price is below $0.279892, then January and the year will have both declined.
  • If the closing price is above $0.279892, then January and the year will have diverged.
  • Note that this is a correction from previous months where I was, incorrectly, using $0.258505, due to a data problem.
• We also saw a new all-time low daily close this month (Nov. 21 / $0.071407).

Wrap-up

All this brings to mind another adage, "Buy when there's blood in the street". For the Steem chain, maybe that also means "Build when there's blood in the street, and there actually has been a recent uptick in developer activity. (or maybe it means, "Blog when there's blood in the street").

We're seeing new and updated front-ends, new applications (like the above-mentioned SteemPredicts, and we're even seeing the community working on burn strategies with the SPS, so I think the ecosystem is healthier than these numbers might suggest.

In my personal opinion, the recent months of decline have probably had more to do with general market conditions than with the Steem ecosystem, itself.

Finally

Here are this month's questions (just for fun):

1. December 31 closing price: up or down from November's close of $0.076703?
2. December 31: Over/under the 2025 opening price of $0.258505 $0.279892 (I just noticed a problem in my downloaded data. 0.258505 was the Jan 1. closing price, not the opening price.)?
3. Memorial Day, 2026: Over/under the (US) 2025 Labor Day price of 0.12741?

I'm keeping my answers the same, again, so I'm guaranteed to get at least 1 right this month.