Which of these unusual events was the most improbable?
Here are several events that have been documented. Statistics would tell us that each one was highly improbable. Yet if people keep playing sports games and keep buying lottery tickets (to use two examples), then sooner or later, there will be some unusual alignments and patterns that occur, however unlikely. Which of these events do you think is the most unlikely? Have you heard about (or experienced) other events that were similarly improbable? Feel free to share others in the comment section below.
Richard Petty Winning 10 Consecutive NASCAR Races
Sports fans will give you all kinds of records. The undefeated football season. Pele’s three World Cups. Cal Ripken’s consecutive games record. Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point scoring night. And there are others. Perhaps these are improbable and some records will never be broken, but most are the product of amazing athletic performances that overcame the odds that they would not have occurred. I’ve included very few sports events on this list because I think it’s almost always possible that someone better could come along (though the games have changed so much that something like Cy Young’s wins record in baseball can never be touched). People said Jack Nicklaus’ golf majors record would never be equaled and yet Tiger Woods almost did it; that’s proof that if someone does it, another person as good may come along some day in the future.
Richard Petty. Source: Creative Commons via Flickr.com by Ted Van Pelt.
That said, think about everything that goes into a NASCAR race: the cars, the drivers, the courses in different locations and with different conditions, the mechanics, the preparation, the other drivers, and even the good luck. I think Richard Petty’s 10 consecutive NASCAR victories in 1967 may well be the most amazing sports record in history. It’s not only the product of an individual achievement at one time and place (such as Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point scoring performance), but that repeat performance spread out over a period of months. Statistically, the odds must be stacked so heavily against someone winning a single auto race that I cannot even imagine what they would be for winning 10 such races in a row.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Petty
The Laura Buxton Balloon
The Snopes site (link below) tried to debunk this and couldn’t. It really happened and has been documented. There are a number of stories about twins separated at birth who ended up leading frighteningly similar lives, but this story did not involve twins. These were two strangers who were not related.
A 10-year old girl in the United Kingdom named Laura Buxton was hoping to meet a new pen pal when she flew a balloon into the sky that had her name and address attached to it. The balloon came down 140 miles away and was given to a local girl there named Laura Buxton, who was about the same age (some accounts say her family actually lived at the house where the balloon landed). She contacted the first Laura Buxton and they found out that they were in the same year at school, were both only children (no siblings), had similar hair color and height, and had the same pets. Each had a 3-year old female black Labrador retriever and a grey rabbit. In addition, both had purchased a guinea pig which was the same color and had the same orange markings on its hindquarters. Apparently, the two Laura Buxtons have remained good friends.
Here is a short video about the Laura Buxton story:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/whether-balloon/
Winning the Lottery Twice in One Day
The first time this happened, someone said the odds were trillions to one. But then it happened again. And again. In late 2017, it happened several times in different parts of the United States. Apparently, lightning does strike twice (hmmm…I saw a Steemit post about that once also; there was a guy who was struck seven times in his life).
Winning the lottery multiple times, more than once from the same ticket seller, or twice in one day…all of these have happened. As long as people are buying lottery tickets, then as impossible as they seem, these highly improbable events will continue to occur. They would only be impossible if no one bought tickets.
https://www.southernliving.com/news/nc-woman-wins-lottery-twice-same-day
Fernando Tatis Hit Two Grand Slams in the Same Inning
One inning of baseball is over after three outs. There are nine hitters in a team’s lineup, who must all hit in order. For the same player to come up to hit twice in the same inning, his team must not have made three outs yet, but instead most of the other hitters must have reached base on a hit, walk, or error. One of the rarest plays in baseball is the grand slam, which is where the bases are loaded (full with three runners) when the batter hits a home run, thus scoring four runs with just one hit.
Tatis baseball card. Look out for his son, who also is projected as a baseball star in the near future.
Several years ago, baseball writer Tim Kurkjian determined that someone hits a grand slam about once in every 14 games. Up until 1999, in the nearly one century of baseball records in the United States, only ONCE had a single player ever hit two grand slams in the same game. But on April 23, 1999, Fernando Tatis hit two slams not just in the same game, but in the same inning. Pretty amazing.
https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/april-23-1999-fernando-tatis-hits-two-grand-slams-one-inning
http://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2551746
The City of Fort Worth, Texas Demolished the Wrong Buildings, Two Days in a Row
Incompetence, squared. The city of Fort Worth, Texas had hired a contractor to demolish some old buildings. It knocked down one that it shouldn’t have. And then it did the same thing again. Of course, this was the same contractor, same crew, and same code enforcement officer. So, it may have been the same mistake that was repeated the next day.
Ft. Worth Stockyards. Blame it on the longhorns. Source: Montanasports.com.
https://consumerist.com/2013/08/23/same-crew-demolished-wrong-house-two-days-in-a-row/
Man’s Lost Daughter was Behind Him in His Selfie
A man had not seen one of his daughters in 10 years, so he went to the town where he thought she lived. Unable to find her, he took a picture of himself (and two other daughters) to put in the local newspaper, hoping to find his daughter’s whereabouts. When his daughter saw the picture, she realized she was in it (in the background, walking behind him), even though she no longer lived in this town and just happened to have been visiting that day by chance.
http://metro.co.uk/2007/08/09/lost-daughter-right-behind-you-dad-604317/
Divine intervention or amazing coincidence?
Though they were usually on time, fifteen members of the church choir in Beatrice, Nebraska were all late for choir practice on March 1, 1950 (for ten separate reasons). They usually began practicing promptly at 7:20 pm, but not that evening. At 7:25 pm, the church exploded from a natural gas leak. Since everyone was late, no one was there. And thankfully, no one was hurt or killed when the building blew up. (Accounts of the actual starting & explosion times vary slightly with different reports, but there is no doubt that the explosion was within five minutes of the intended starting time.)
http://beatricedailysun.com/news/local/remember-the-miracle/article_d75d6eb3-40df-52ca-8296-e959ab79fff5.html
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/choir-non-quorum/
When Viewed From Earth, the Sun and Moon Appear to be the Same Size
The sun’s diameter is about 400 times larger than that of the moon. The sun is about 400 times further from earth than the moon. As a result, the two appear to be about the same size when viewed from earth. This makes it possible for us to witness a total eclipse of the sun. Since their relative positions move slowly over time, we can consider this an ‘event’: a unique time in history (though a long one) when the two appear to be the same size. Given all of the celestial bodies in the universe, and the fact that we have just one moon and one sun, what are the chances of them appearing the same size from earth? You don’t want to know.
Solar eclipse. Creative Commons via Wikipedia.com by Kuebi.
http://earthsky.org/space/coincidence-that-sun-and-moon-seem-same-size
Two Different “Dennis the Menace” Comic Strips Were Published on the Same Day
You may have seen Dennis the Menace, a long running comic strip (that was one of them). Two separate comics with the same name were created by different artists (who had never heard of each other) and published by newspapers in different countries (one in Britain and another in the United States). Both were published for the first time on the same day: March 12, 1951.
Dennis the Menace comic strip by Hank Ketchum from DailyINK.
http://metro.co.uk/2007/08/09/lost-daughter-right-behind-you-dad-604317/
Which of the above events was the most improbable?
It’s a rhetorical question, but I’m interested to know what you think. Have you heard of other unlikely events like these? Have you experienced anything similar yourself? Many of us have "small world" stories. If so, feel free to share in the comment sections below. Statistics would tell us that all of these occurrences are unlikely and yet, in our amazing world, they happen.
Top image: Host Rod Serling from the "Twilight Zone" TV show (CBS).
@donkeypong, Firstly thanks for given most interesting post sharing. For me most importable characters Fernando Tatis. But I have no idea how he was hit hit two grand slams in same innings. It's unbelievable scene to me. Next time need to see witness support from pavilion. Another some scenes also I haven't confidence,
These would all be great to discuss with my class next week as we start our probability unit. As long as there is a single opportunity, no matter how enormous the odds, there is a chance of something happening. Especially if there are a large number of runs. The more you run an experiment and chance the odds then the more likely it becomes that unlikely events will take place.
Glad I could help you a small bit with your lesson plan. :) Sounds like a good class.
I think both the Lauras meeting is the most improbable because while the other events are also improbable, the things that happen in them are the same mostly, like winning the lottery twice on the same day, winning ten races in a row and even the 2 guys publishing a comic with the same name...
But for this two girls to not only have the same name but also the same last name, hair colors, school grade, pets, etc... it's way more stuff that had to happen so their meeting is like 10 improbable events on 1.
Exactly! For most of these, you can conduct similar statistical analyses that will lead you to have a confirmation bias or survivorship bias. Many events happen over and over again, and when they happen in just that way that seems too lucky, they are written down and judged forever in isolation.
But for the Laura Buxton x2 case, each coincidence would add a whole new exponential statistical difficulty. Survivorship bias suffers tremendously under the load of this coincidence. People who share the same name, general location, age, etc., plus localised events such as the pets and personality choices, would make it so that this is an almost super-natural case of coincidence.
Good point re: the survivorship bias. That particular story is so unusual and unlikely to occur, any way you analyze it.
The Lauras story is amazing, I agree. So many variables there that came together in alignment.
I agree with this. but the father finding his daughter because she was in a pic he took and the church thing are both amazing to
15 people late on the same day for a variety of reasons and on THAT day the church blows up?
My long shot story.
Back in my hippy days, I would spend from spring to autumn travelling Britain on an old grocery delivery bicycle - small front wheel, metal basket containing a big tin box for everything that needed to be kept dry, bed-roll behind the saddle, tent along the crossbar, leather panniers for my posts & pans. I did it for 12 consecutive years, 30 miles per day, always a hot dinner cooked on a campfire, sometimes following the free festival scene, sometimes just taking a direction because I'd never been there before, then holing up for the winter on farms where I could get casual work picking brussels sprouts and tidying orchards. I shared many adventures with that bike and I loved it.
One winter I left my bike outside a house where there was a party going on. There may have been some confusion over the bachelor status of the girl I was with that night, but whatever the reason I came out in the morning and my bike had disappeared. I searched everywhere, reported its loss to the police, but when it still hadn't turned up after a couple of weeks I bought an old car and my life changed. For one thing, I needed to decide where I was going before I left!
Fast forward 6 years and the company I was working for had a temporary shortage of work. We were paid our basic wages without bonus to be on standby awaiting a new contract and I decided to use the opportunity to visit some of my old haunts. I returned to the town where I'd last seen my bike, met up with a friend and set off in my VW camper for a game of snooker. Coming up the narrow alley towards us was a man pushing a bike - my bike! I wound down the window and grabbed the handlebars, and wouldn't let go till he explained himself.
It turned out that the man worked for a gardening shop on the High Street not far from that fateful party. When the staff arrived for work on the Monday morning, they'd found my bike leaning against the back door of their shop and assumed someone would soon reclaim it. After a few days it was moved into a storeroom. After a few years, the shop was sold and the new owner decided my bike would make a great display outside his shop with a container of flowers in the basket. That very day he told his employee to take the bike to a local repair shop to be spruced up. In 6 years, that short walk to the bicycle repair shop was the only time that the bike had been out of the storeroom, and I met it in that alley on my only return to that town before or since ....
.... a one minute in six years window of opportunity.
I would love to say that I dumped my VW camper, jumped on my bike and rode off into the sunset, but my lifestyle had irreversibly changed. After proving to the shop owner that it was indeed my bike (by getting a photocopy of the lost and found description from the police station), I sold him the bike for a tenner and consoled myself that in the event of the fall of civilisation, I would be perfectly entitled (under the Universe's Laws of Justifiable Behaviour) to return, steal my my bike back off him, and resume my travels. Haven't needed to .... so far.
That's a great one! Thanks for sharing.
Somehow I think that demolished the wrong buildings two days in a row is the most probable :)
Wow that one on the daughter realizing that she was in the picture.
Kind of creepy.
Entry by T. S. Obiech
Winning the lottery twice in a day is like impossible and the probability on that is greatly improbable. But we can't win if we don't bet though. @donkeypong
It's really not a coincidence, it's rate to find people who share so muct, name, school grade hair colour and all, chances is that they may not even meet each other at all, yet, they they did, under the circumstances of a flown ballon, listening and watching the video got me emotional.
Hi @donkeypong,
the lost daughter in the selfie pic....
I can imagine how a father feel in the moment he realized the girl behind was his daughter...heartbreaking...
Best regards
Tom
That's a good one, too. Many of us probably have (or have heard) small world stories like that, though. You're thinking or talking about someone you haven't seen for a long time and suddenly they walk in. It's kind of creepy, but it happens to people with some frequency.
why heartbreaking? they found each other in the end