A Crypto Gambler Had Bet That The Venezuelan President Would Be Arrest and Made $436,000
While the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, along with his wife, by US forces caused a stir around the world, a cryptocurrency gambler has become a wealthy man profiting from this arrest.
According to a global news agency, a crypto gambler had bet before the January 3 incident that the Venezuelan president would be arrested. No one believed it at all, so many gamblers online bet on the certainty of victory.
The bet was placed on the cryptocurrency-powered platform Polymarket, where users can bet on political and world events. A recently joined user had bet thirty-two and a half dollars that Nicolas Maduro would be arrested and removed from power by the end of January.
According to Polymarket data, gamblers immediately bet big on it, and surprisingly, the new user won the bet.
The Venezuelan president was not only arrested but is facing trial in New York, and the presidency of the country has been transferred to the vice president.
The user who placed a bet made an extraordinary profit of more than $436,000. The identity of this account has not yet been known, and it was registered only through an identification consisting of letters and numbers on the blockchain.
However, serious questions have now arisen as to whether someone had given secret information about the US military operation to someone in advance, which the gambler took advantage of.
It should be remembered that until the afternoon of Friday, January 2, the chances of Venezuelan President Maduro being removed from power were considered to be only 6.5 percent.
However, shortly before midnight, this rate reached 11 percent, and it suddenly increased in the early hours of January 3. Shortly after, US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Nicolas Maduro was in US custody. Experts say that this sudden increase in bets gives the impression that someone had advance information.
Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a non-partisan financial reform group, said the bet had all the hallmarks of insider trading. In addition, several other Polymarket users have made tens of thousands of dollars on bets on Maduro’s arrest. The case has also caught the attention of US lawmakers.
Congressman Richie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced a bill on Monday that aims to prevent government employees from betting on prediction markets where they have non-public and sensitive information. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the US in recent years. Hundreds of millions of dollars were bet on these platforms during the 2024 US presidential election.
Although insider trading is illegal in the stock market, the rules for prediction markets are relatively less strict.
These platforms faced regulatory scrutiny during the Biden administration, while the industry received relatively more support during the Trump era.
It is also worth noting that President Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., plays an advisory role at both Kulshi and Polymarkets. A Kulshi spokesperson said that his platform strictly prohibits trading based on any kind of inside information, including that of government employees.
The condition regarding Maduro's arrest has raised not only financial transparency but also national security and ethical questions, which are expected to be further investigated in the coming days.