Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here
Bitcoin broke below critical support in the upper $13,000s this morning ($13,500 - $13,800) and is now sitting around $13k at the time of writing this. Bitcoin has consolidated around these levels for the majority of the past week and has found significant support there.
Last time we broke below this level, Bitcoin bounced back at the lower $13,000s. This time, Bitcoin broke below $13k. As a result of this, I suspect the upper $13k levels will now act as substantial resistance which will be difficult to push past. Given these factors, I suspect it is more likely Bitcoin continues to the downside rather than upside in the short-term.
I forgot to mention in the video, but I will NOT be selling any Bitcoin. I might end up buying more if we continue lower, although I won't at these current levels.
Furthermore, Ether has breached a critical resistance relative to Bitcoin at 5.5m Satoshi (0.055 BTC). I've stated for some time now that anywhere between 0.055 BTC to 0.06 BTC is a good area to shift some Ether into Bitcoin, with the next target being roughly 0.07 BTC. If Bitcoin tanks like it did before Christmas, I don't expect this ETH/BTC to remain as high as it currently is. However, it is worth noting that Ether is holding its own relative to Bitcoin at the time of writing this.
On the topic of Bitcoin dominance, we've fallen below 40% mostly as the result of the bull run in Ripple. Altcoins have, in general, outperformed Bitcoin in the past week. I continue to be bullish on Bitcoin relative to altcoins, even moreso during dips like these, so if you would like to keep your exposure to the market, I continue to prefer Bitcoin and selectiveness with altcoins (rather than a basket-type approach).
What are your thoughts on the Bitcoin dip? Opportunity or trap? For now, I vote trap. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
P.S: None of my thoughts have anything to do with headlines for South Korea.
You're the only youtuber that is talking reason in this insane market.
I began my cryptoasset journey in Aug, 2017. Thus, my opinions and perspective are likely that of an adolescent. The education in this area has been, as of recently, harsh and unforgiving. That being said, I have joined the HODler crowd and have weathered a few category 1-2 hurricanes in the past few months. Some were quite scary, like the BCash hostile takeover attempt (category 2 imo), and all of the FUD leading up to the non-issue of SegWit2x (potential for cat 4 but thankfully averted). The Bgold fork (tropical depression) was much milder in my opinion and I was happy to see that my pre-fork research was consistent with the actual post-fork result (ie nothing to worry about).
Despite those events being concerning, I could console myself because I could point to events or happenings that stood under, and were correlated with, the price action. Things could be rationalized by even a novice as myself.
Which brings me to the current situation of increased volatility and undiscernible price action. The market has become significantly more complex, and the devils that I am unaware of (being an investor newbie) have multiplied to the nth degree. I suspect these new players are surpassingly wealthy and influential, and their ability to control both the upside and downside of this relatively small market is simple child's play to them. Unclear to me what their overall intentions are. I suppose if they wished to kill this whole experiment (at the behest of their governmental/bureaucratic overlords) BTC would be dead or near dead already. Perhaps they are priming the market with low prices in preparation for a large bull run in 2018. That is my hope, of course, but its uncomfortable to be clinging to hope in the face of a potential category 5 nation-killer staring you in the face.
So, I feel like I am getting played. It's harder to make sense of what's going on and I suppose it will only get harder to rationalize from here.
This saddens my naive brain, thinking that we finally had a "free" market in cryptoassets where the laws of supply and demand rule the day. Of course, the whales have as much a right to be "free" with their money and influence, so I suppose the market IS truly free. And isn't this what I, as a libertarian, wanted in the first place: an unregulated space where great ideas and equally impressive technology can be backed by venture capitalists and Joe Six-packs alike with no preference or prejudice. Where the cream will rise to the top because of the virtue of the idea and not by the backroom dealings of the elite.
A different youtube crypto pundit recently posted an interesting article:
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf
Given the endless philosophical debates concerning what BTC should be (store of wealth vs payment rail vs unit of account), the author makes a fairly convincing argument that the store of wealth characteristic of BTC is its strongest attribute from an investor's perspective. Additionally, he also astutely points out that having a strong payment method, although useful and welcomed, is merely added value on top of a more critical foundational store of value. He observes that, in our current milieu, there are MANY ways we transact daily. To quote the author directly:
"Now think about how many different payment rails you’ve used over the past month: physical cash (perhaps in multiple currencies), Visa, Amex, PayPal, direct debit, SWIFT, etc. They were all good and reasonably fit for purpose in slightly different ways and possessing slightly different features for the specific payment you were making: cash to tip the porter, Visa to pay on Amazon, Amex to buy a plane ticket and get the points, PayPal to pay on that dodgy website you don’t trust with your card number, direct debit to pay your utilities bill, SWIFT for an international transfer and so on."
Likely, the future crypto world will also be fragmented when it comes to payment methods. What is required is the underlying store of value, analogous to the role that fiat currency and, ultimately gold, fills today. Of course, of all the cryptoassets available today, BTC fills that role most robustly and reliably. It's simple use case is being fulfilled at the current time, albeit in a very stomach-churning fashion, but perhaps that is simply a function of time and change in mindset. Another appropriate quote from the author:
"We should pause here to think about how long the emergence of a cryptoasset as a dominant monetary store of value might take. On the one hand, gold’s been around for millennia, so the mental paradigm shift required might take longer than 10 years and never occur fully. On the other hand, we rode horses for transportation for millennia and moved on from that pretty quickly and categorically with the advent of the superior technology of the motorcar. That transition required a major buildout of physical infrastructure while the one that interests us here requires little more than a shift in mindset."
For those of us old enough to remember, when was the last time you saw or used a payphone?
I was encouraged by this article and highly encourage you to check it out in its entirety. The author delves into the different sectors within the cryptoasset realm (EVM, dApps, currency) and performs an erudite analysis, at least from my laymen's perspective. Please punch holes in this analysis and comment on any fallacies/assumptions that are incorrect or controversial; contrarian views are definitely welcomed.
I do like a well-written piece ;)
There's pundits on this very thread politely hinting a the demise of outdated bitcoin in the name of more efficient Ripple, and hey - it's so practical, you can directly use it from your bank - you know, the guys you always trusted with your money !
Just scroll, if you've been in the business you'll immediately recognize the approach.
So this is indeed what's going on, via several levels The explosion of crypto must be led into controllable channels before the chance is lost. Most people in this market aren't used to strategic thinking in a world of secret banking/intelligence services, so to speak, and will in doubt follow the simple explanation...
simple neurophysiology at work.
While I'm at it, have you looked at Stellar Lumens (XLM) as opposed to Ripple ?
It's a token that could be used by anyone who buys some and can convince people to use their services much like a Western Union booth, or yourself, to send around the globe in seconds, fully decentralized (as opposed to Ripple), can be integrated with external exchanges, you know the sort - like bitshares.org ? Or with Amazon, or Walmart, and it's at this time being used as a banking transaction system in the South Pacific, that IBM helped setting up... http://fortune.com/2017/10/16/ibm-blockchain-stellar/
Of course, the article says, this is expected to be only temporary, as the little and large nation-states will soon develop crypto "of their own", and so will of course the banks, won't they. Ripple, or SWIFTCoin...
So the question is, will the little people understanding that they have to invest where it benefits them ?
They seem to understand virtual money as opposed to paper as opposed to gold but can they ever understand that freedom is preferable to being comfortable ?
I don't think so, just watch what's going on in the streets.
So everything depends on marketing and market forces, and we're at this moment as on a darkling plain, watching the market forces at work, playing the people, who can't think of anything but short term gains.
I will visit your link in a second ;)
P.S.: what's a pay phone ?
@jojof, you sound like a crypto-anarchist. A very good crypto-anarchist!!! Great post.
Regards,
Rick
Me, an anarquista ? Nevar ! Just trying to not be insufficiently paranoid. Venceremos ;)
Hablas la verdad! But insufficiently paranoid sounds suspiciously like an oxymoron. Can one be insufficiently paranoid?
Regards,
Rick
Absolutely - humans are insufficiently paranoid by nature, they tend to prefer positive delusions to reality - it's a survival technique that favors herd animals through dreary periods, by keeping the suicide rates down and desperation at bay... however, it also causes ridiculous conflicts and unforeseeable (!) actions in better days. Everybody hates Cassandras for the very reason that they countermand the general, hard-wired "don't-worry-be-happy" outlook that is also furthered by religions and the media... no problem, you'll be rewarded in the afterlife, sheeple. There is no climate change, everything will be all right tomorrow, and so on. It leads us directly into destruction and a healthy amount of paranoia is an asset that can give you the decisive edge over your co-primates ;)
Nice thoughts on long term crypto land. As I told my mom...centralized crypto currencies will be a sign of the Apocalypse.
Not to nitpick but do remember that XRP is not meant to be used as currency. Not that your over-all message changes...just a large confusion even for what seem to be XRP investors.
Okay, XRP is not really centralized, and not meant to be a currency - just an exchange token. It's being controlled. In essence, we should be using something like dash ;)
Which I'm right now looking at, waiting for it to break out of the triangle. I'm also looking at Bitcoin again ;)
Dash has master nodes :D
LOL its a booth Clark Kent uses to change into Superman =)
I did check out XLM and definitely viewed it as a more "friendly" form of banking transfers vs XRP which I found unsavory and a naked attempt at banking to offer a product in this new asset class. I will admit that FOMO'd hard with the recent pump but the feelings passed and I am glad to not be a part of that train.
Great post. I can;t help but smile when reading it, only because we can all relate to the feelings you have as someone new to the market. Welcome :)
If you are truly team HODL, then I would suggest taking a break from looking at market trends and reading articles on the topic. I took a 1 year hiatus from looking at anything cryptocurrency related back in 2015 to help my nerves (I know a long time). Sometimes it is what's required though. Start small if you need to, maybe a month break, but try not to think too much about it if you plan on holding and not being liquid for trading.
Cheers
Awesome advice. If only I had the discipline to follow through. Will take a shower now and try not take my water-resistant phone with me...
Hi variable,
Sorry for the delay in the response. Thank you for the excellent piece. I plan to read it in full at some point here when I have more time, but for now going to address some of the comments you made in your comment. The market will always be manipulated as long as there is limited regulations and enforcements. Truly free markets aren't healthy - they are predatory. It's why we have 'limited' capitalism rather than full-on capitalism. For now, much of price action is dictated by a wealthy few.
I don't know how much stock I put into the "store of value" argument. As mentioned from your quote, gold is associated with being a store of value partially because it is ingrained in us from birth practically that gold is valuable. New technologies are adopted quickly because they have utility that improve our lives (e.g: horses to cars). It's difficult to convince the general populace that magical internet money is the new gold - especially when most of them weren't really looking for a new gold in the first place.
Not only that, but Bitcoin has dropped 80%+ several times throughout its history which I hardly call a store of value. While Bitcoin has been called digital gold for years, it seems that people call it such more frequently during times of 'bubbly' activity to justify valuation. Over the long-term, cryptocurrencies must be better and easier to use than the equivalent centralized option or it's just going to continue to be niche. Plain and simple. I tend to think the vocal minority makes it seem like privacy censorship resistance is important, but most people simply don't care enough to deal with additional inconveniences to achieve such goals. I mean, Facebook & Google are two of the largest companies in the world. Anyway, some quick initial thoughts to chew on for now.
You forgot China!
I'm going to guess downtrend for the rest of the year, and fresh start 2018 by turning things around and going bullish. Either way, if you're in it for the long haul, you will be fine. Happy New Years!
I just listened to another guy saying much the same, and he blamed it on the Futures.
I looked at the chart and I'm saying much the same (see below), in part for different reasons. I did a Fibonacci and it landed us at $9500 a week ago... so I'm waiting for Bitcoin to fall, blaming the situation mostly on the Ripple run (I took part in it five times, and I had difficulty cashing in my profits twice, so I'm out now - it was a very bad experience).
I've been waiting for Bitcoin to bottom out, and it's sure taking its time. People were talking 6000 and 8000 (Mike Novogratz refused to commit 500 million investment into BTC before Christmas, hinting at/hoping for 8000), while others were more conservative or even positive. Now we will have to think about the Ripple Rage, and if that stops... then we may rise and shine
But now, we're still going downwards and there's this possible Head-and-Shoulders scenario that I wanted to make you aware of, the Mac is pointing downwards... My philosophy is always to earn about 10% per week and more if that can be done without danger, and avoid losses of above 5% - if I miss out on a run, so be it... if I can't buy the absolute bottom, so be it. I guess i'll just wait this out for another day.
And on January 1-3, some fresh money should start rolling in - if Ripple dips (and it's showing signs), then it will happen earlier.
PS the green line is a trend line I drew from a low on November 03 to the recent low - it may be the support line that keeps us from finally going lower, dammit. Happy New Year !
Great analysis !!! have you noticed how the RS subdivide in another H&S ? If you go down in timeframe you can easily find 3 H&S with RS being also a H&S. About 10k$ should be a first bottom than can be broke to another 8k or even(worse case scenario) 6k$ bottom. Looking at the charts and trying to extrapolate how the price will fall put us to the 1-3 january ... Besides of that there is also maybe some people who want BTC go down to buy cheap before some big money get involved in it next month ... Some bankers/investors are very 'bearish' in saying that bitcoin is dangerous or a bad investment last week without good reason to do so especially now (Novogratz is obviously not one of them because he's just saying that the market is not good to launch his stuff and that's true).
There was a slightly smaller H+S before this one, too -directly after the big dip, but they don't always resolve it seems - instead, the price rose because of incredible volume...
I read an analysis today that went as low as $5500.
I think there's a play to replace Bitcoin with Ripple, but I have't the slightest idea how far such a conspiracy would realistically go - in theory, it would have started with the cancellation of Segwit2x, and the following BCH coup attempt. Then, once Bitcoin went for the latest correction, another attempt immediately followed and then they pumped Ripple, to make all the dumb money flow into that via sheer greed. If they manage to establish Ripple as the biggest coin, Bitcoin might become just an altcoin for the general public... and the banks have won a victory.
But all of that is a bit much, it would take some dedicated thinkers who can actually make it work, it's a bit like assuming that 911 was a planned Pearl Harbor Event created to enable the 'War On Terror,' so the Near East could be plausibly destabilized in the name of Save-the-Petrodollar humanism for a mix of Saudi, Israeli and NATO interests (which conveniently fit into the Wolfowitz Doctrine), and that Osama Bin Laden was merely a fall guy who could never have pulled this stunt alone. See what I mean - totally ridiculous, just a conspiracy theory ;)
It's not as if world power or big money would kill or cheat to reach their goals - they always act morally ! Knowing this, nobody in their right mind would even consider such thoughts...
Let's for the time being stay with the assumption they're only talking it down... like Novogratz, who's basically a straight shooter but would of course also like low prices.
But if Novogratz decides to NOT invest in Bitcoin any day soon, that's when I would start to reconsider...
In any case, I'm out of Ripple and into Stellar Lumens (XLM), though not with much at this time.
Wow, the replies section has become more interesting and informative than the post itself! Really great reading and thinking contributions here, totally unexpected.
I was thinking the same thing when I saw the sluggish volume around 13K. I got out and lost around 15%. Putting hope in Etherium to get it back for me…
I had gotten out at 14.5 k after being careless one night and NOT saving funds in fiat while sleeping... maybe 12% (but that's relative because I recall getting out at 16.6k when the great fall began and rebuying at 13.5... so it went up to 16.5k again and I felt I lost when it went down to 14.5, that's what I mean by "relative" - I didn't exactly lose money but I felt cheated when I should be grateful for the learning experience, a typical human failure) - I recovered that by trading Ripple till there started to be definitive sell walls again and again, and I only wanted out, no more Ripple for me... in fact, servers were down - a sign of too many other fools thinking exactly the way I did... ETH ain't bad but I had also been thinking of buying bitshares (BTS), I need ETH to buy that anyway, using Blocktrades... but not sure yet. In doubt, stay in fiat. I'd rather not earn something than lose - but I have a small investment in Stellar Lumens and I'll hodle that I guess ;)
checkout stop loss orders
I saw quit a bit of buy order volume in the order book at 13,500 but was surprised it went down lower when I didn't see much sell in the order book.
Now it is back up to 14,000. I wonder where the sells come from because I don't see them listed as limit orders. Maybe there is software that monitors this stuff for people and places sell orders when there is a spike to keep the price from dropping too far.
There's all sorts of algos doing the buy and sell for whales, they usually work on the RSI up and downtrends, they are programmed to mind typical resistance and support levels and profit form them
I suspected something like that was going on. I did some work in C++ on a match server and I know how easy it would be to do that type of thing - but you have to know what you're doing as an investor to code successful algorithms.
Great breakdown, can't disagree with any of it.
I wish you could ;)
Thank you for the analysis as always jojo. While I trade, I don't do so with profit % targets and only take chances when I think the odds are stacked in my favor. Despite the rally, I still suspect Bitcoin might head lower especially if we see volume start to pick up on downside. However, Bitcoin breaking above $13,750 again is an interesting event that I didn't anticipate to happen so easily, so will be interesting to watch over the coming few days.
Nobody anticipated it, but so far my green line held... however we're not done yet.
As this is a game of nerves, we may now have shaken out the deserters - but never the algos.
Interesting assessment! Sorry about your Ripple experience ;)
First and foremost, Congratulations on 100k on Youtube, and thanks for introducing me to Steemit.
As I mentioned on one of your other posts, "ripple went from 50 billion in market cap to 90 billion. Bitcoin was at 250B yesterday and is now sitting at 213B."
Once Coinbase puts Ripple on their platform on Jan 8th, I suspect people will dump their BTC shares for the Crypto currency that's been showing it's the new powerhouse, Ripple.
If not Ripple, Dash or Stratis will take away from BTC's market Cap.
Cheers!
@parzych, your last comment makes me want to remind you (and myself) that the market is not a zero sum game. The entire crypto market is growing like crazy to occupy its "rightful" place in a huge TAM. While there are and will be huge bubbles along the way it is obvious to me that there is a paradigm shift going on as the internet of value emerges.
Regards,
Rick
Thanks for that. You're point was a very good one.
What blows me away is when I tell friends and family about crypto they are all skeptic/reluctant. By the time they finally hop on board, I don't want to say it'll be too late, because it's not, but it will be their returns won't be what our are.
I watch this stuff every day in hopes of hitting 1 trillion in total crypto market cap. Why? Because it's a milestone I guess.
Let's not forget about Coinbase adding Ripple, Dash, and Stratis to their platform on Jan 8th. A Youtube said that "Coinbase is gaining 100k people a day (which must be why they suck so bad- aka bogged down)." I suspect 1 trillion will be sooner than later. But as for where Bitcoin stands when the market cap does hit it? No clue.
Thanks for getting me thinking, Rick.
Hi @parzych... do you have a source on the new Coinbase additions for Jan 8?
A few Youtubers have mentioned it. So upon digging deeper I found this: https://cryptosumer.com/2017/12/26/another-coinbase-gdax-leak-more-coins-added-january-8-or-sooner/
Not sure how reputable the site is, but it's my source.
Thank you sir... it looks possibly legit enough to take a very small position in Dash and Strat for a week or so... no harm no foul if nothing comes of it.
@parzych, you're welcome. Since you're a steemit noob like me, I'll ask for your upvote on my original reply. Money is the sincerest form of flattery (or appreciation), ;-)
Thanks back at you for the info about coinbase adding more cryptos soon. I've been looking for a way to open a position in Iota as a spec play. The concept seems similar to torrenting, as in the more users the faster things go. I'm not in a hurry to throw my money at other exchanges that also seem to have support issues. So maybe I'll just try patience for a change and see what happens.
Regards,
Rick
@parzych, so Coinbase/GDAX has still not added any new cryptos, as of yet. Anything new on that front? I will accept gossip and unfounded rumors. Getting bored watching only BTC, ETH, LTC, and now BCH. These days the stock market is more fun. (Watch that remark trigger a bear market in the SP500 tomorrow. Solipsism can be scary.
Regards,
Rick
The current price of ripple at $2+ is from the expectations (rumors) that coinbase will list Ripple in their platforms...so coinbase listing expectations has already been reflected into the price of xrp. I doubt it will go higher than that.
Thank you! It's amazing to have hit 100k subscribers. We might see Ripple pump even more if it is listed on Coinbase soon, although right now it's just rumors circulating. I think what a lot of people forget is that the reason Ripple is worth so much, and why all cryptocurrencies are worth so much, is because Bitcoin keeps going up. We could see Ripple take over Bitcoin, but I don't think that would last too long personally. However, I never really get surprised when stuff like this happens - so we'll see.
Another quality video!
Firstly I think it's great to see that 0.05 mark for ETH/BTC. It was a solid call and hopefully some people made some profits on it.
I think it's fantastic that despite the bounce back in the market (while uploading) you still finished the upload. It's really nice to see the transparency on your ideas/analysis of market. Despite the fact that the market was about to prove you wrong, you still stuck to your guns and put the video up. Much respect for this, and I have no doubt this is why people keep coming back to your videos.
I wanted to dive a little further in to your analysis on where the market is going. For those that have been following your numerous uploads over the past month, they will all know you've talked about the "overvalued" market that is currently at play. This leads me to my core question for you:
Why play in the market if you have confidence that it is overvalued and will correct much lower?
I most certainly agree that the market is overvalued, and I have lots of good reasons I can think of to answer the question myself, however I would love to hear your input on why you choose to continue trading in the current market, rather than sitting out for a bit until it settles appropriately. Are you only in the market slightly? Will you jump to fiat for a while? Excited to hear your answers on this one!
I also love the fact that you've touched on the market dominance trends in regards to Ripple causing a skewed view point. Ripple is clearly making waves (haha), but it most certainly is refracting the view of the current market and a lot of people tend to miss that.
Something that I feel most people here will agree with is that you keep a very unbiased opinion on the market, and it helps you see things that most others would miss; namely the non-analytical/traditional market trends and more so the emotional trends of the market. You do a great job here and it adds fantastic value and validity to your observations.
Thanks for the continued quality uploads. Keep doing what your doing!
Cheers
@snakemeister, I see you're another CI fan. FWIW, I'll provide my take on why I'm playing in an over valued market. Because markets can continue in an over valued (I never like the term overbought for technical reasons.) manner for an unusually long time. That is reason 1. Reason 2, I've only allocated around 5-6% of my resources to cryptos at present and have no plans for significantly increasing the allocation until I see a crash. Reason 3, I use stops and advance the stops below trend lines. That cost me about 20-30% of my positions in the 12/22 whipsaw. I'm just calling it a noob mistake and adjusting my rules a bit more conservatively. Given a little more time at these levels I'll have a full position in BTC, ETH, and LTC at a reasonable basis (I hope, cringe.) My plan is to be in position for the next leg up whenever that is. In the mean time I'm simply trying to absorb some wisdom on the margins from quality sources like CI.
Regards,
Rick
@ricknarveson Thanks for your input. It's always great to get multiple perspectives on a particular question. Sorry to hear about your whipsaw loss. Stops can be a little deceiving as they tend to make us feel more secure (as they are intended to) but they still have the potential to bite you in the rear! All learning experiences, and as you say CI has some good unbiased logic to share!
Thanks for sharing!
The loss was one of my cheaper tuition payments to the school of hard knocks. I've had some doozies and have slept much easier and more profitably since I made them a hard and fast rule early in 2016 (in the stock market).
One thing that unsettles me a little about the crypto market is that it never sleeps. Do you know anything about bots? I was looking into Haas but since I can't talk to someone there they'll have to make do without my business.
Regards,
Rick
Thank you for the kind words snakemeister (your name and profile pic make me laugh). I continue to play in this market for the same reason as most people - to make money. I've already made enough at this point that I can't lose if the market crashes and I've locked in enough profits on my initial investments that I've drastically outperformed what the stock market could have done for me.
Bubbles tend to offer great opportunities to create wealth if you just play it safe rather than greedy. There are people who made a nice chunk of change in the bull housing market prior to the 2008 collapse because they didn't keep buying new properties, but instead took advantage of the rising house values without leveraging themselves to death. Then there are the people who kept buying home after home because it was affordable and they were making a killing leveraging themselves (until it collapsed)
In fact, this is true of every bubble that has ever existed - there are people who reinvest everything, and then there are the conservative ones that take some money out to guarantee they come out ahead. The latter tend to underperform as the bubble continues to inflate, but they get to sleep well at night when the bubble pops. So all in all, I play with this market to make money. I also think the bubble will keep going for a while given the state of all the other existing markets for investing.
Thanks for the response! Can't wait to see where this market goes in 2018!
I have only just joined Steemit and not even set up my profile yet. In a sentence .... I am a crop Farmer primarily / ex fx trader of 10 years / commencing as Nutritional Therapist and Advanced Supplements Adviser. / Active with cryptos and metals since March 2017. I have been following Cypto Investor and Data Dash on YouTube.
I believe if you look at the chart for Bitcoin this year you can see a clear 5 wave advance with a massively extended 5th wave.(Elliott Wave analysis). The 5th wave is sometimes called the “lemmings” wave, when all the least informed buyers are running over each other to buy at any cost for fear of missing out - that’s a general understanding, not my personal view, so don’t shoot the messenger!
Wave 1’s tend to be savvy contrarian or insider type buyers. Wave 3’s are often the longest waves supported by well informed buyers on a much larger scale than wave 1 buyers.
If this is a completed 5 wave advance, concluding as Wall Street opened up its futures markets, we have topped for now and the entire 5 wave will be corrected deeply, often to specific Fibonacci levels, e.g. losing 61.8% to 76.4% of this year’s gains. This should trace out in three waves - down, up and further down to meet the final target, in an appropriately proportioned time span - a few months or more..
The structure of waves is not necessarily easy to pick up, as this is a fractal system of waves within waves I.e. a wave 1 of one degree will have a structure of 5 waves at a smaller degree. It is worth just googling Elliott Wave to understand the basics. It’s useful to view charts over multiple time frames - weekly, daily, 4 hourly, hourly.... to look for confirmation of patterns. Sometimes they are not at all clear and so other forms of chart analysis take precedent. None the less, the very visual nature of Elliott Wave has a place in chart analysis.
Bitcoin may be in for an alarming run down, over the next few months. If it happens, it will shake as many people out of bitcoin as possible. I am sure this is what Wall Street wants to see and could really undermine the decentralized nature of crypto currencies. Cryptos are thinly traded compared to Wall Street’s massive and orchestrated volumes of trade. The one thing that may catch out Wall Street speculators is the massive volatility that exist within cryptos. Stops cannot be set too closely or they will be triggered.
Are there any crypto investors here who use Elliott Wave analysis regularly?
Thank you for the post mooringsman and I'm happy you joined Steemit. It's cool to have such a diverse group of people who follow the channel. I've never been big on Elliot Wave analysis, but I know a decent amount of people use it with good success. My favorite likely has to go to Avi Gilburt, however I don't follow that type of analysis frequently because I tend to think most TA is far too open to interpretation. However, if you can make sense of it from a market rationale point of view, then it can be quite a powerful tool which it seems like that is what you are doing (rather than ONLY charting).
In anticipation of the possible BTC breakdown to the 8000s, I'm actually going to pick up some BCH. While BCH does usually fall when BTC falls, I just feel as if the current frustration with the BTC transaction fees could've actually escalated to the point where BCH does not fall as rapidly as BTC does and might actually breakout instead. Do you think I'm wrong to assume BCH will not fall as fast as BTC (should BTC breakdown)?
I would have probably picked up some more ETH for its' same breakout possibility points you've mentioned but I already own a decent portion of ETH for me to bother.
The Bitcoin marketcap percentage being this low because of Ripple could play a very interesting role in the BTC breakdown scenerio as well but I guess I'm just too stubborn to think that Ripple could overtake BTC's marketcap dominance anytime soon. Or I just believe in the community a bit too much for it to let that happen. Not that I don' believe in profit maximization.
Bottom line is that I'm going to get some BCH as sort of a hedge this time around. I'll just have to see what the market does, I guess.
This was a powerful analysis. In regard to BTC falling below the resistance, and at this moment, still well below...
My thoughts were similar when I was watching earlier today.
(Timeline) ~~> Isn't it ironic that Institutional Money takes notice - Futures enter - BTC FUD intensifies - World Governments savagely seek control mechanisms - then Ripple begins to dominate?
Sounds like over a year's worth of activity but we all know it is happening super fast
I wonder, what would this looks like on a 3 year future chart...
Who thinks that this would show that it seems an immense dip is truly coming? Im excited for more entry points before lighting. (As Im sure we all are) #BottomOutBTC
Thanks
Happy New Year!
Hard but posible
Big if true.