RE: Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here
Another quality video!
Firstly I think it's great to see that 0.05 mark for ETH/BTC. It was a solid call and hopefully some people made some profits on it.
I think it's fantastic that despite the bounce back in the market (while uploading) you still finished the upload. It's really nice to see the transparency on your ideas/analysis of market. Despite the fact that the market was about to prove you wrong, you still stuck to your guns and put the video up. Much respect for this, and I have no doubt this is why people keep coming back to your videos.
I wanted to dive a little further in to your analysis on where the market is going. For those that have been following your numerous uploads over the past month, they will all know you've talked about the "overvalued" market that is currently at play. This leads me to my core question for you:
Why play in the market if you have confidence that it is overvalued and will correct much lower?
I most certainly agree that the market is overvalued, and I have lots of good reasons I can think of to answer the question myself, however I would love to hear your input on why you choose to continue trading in the current market, rather than sitting out for a bit until it settles appropriately. Are you only in the market slightly? Will you jump to fiat for a while? Excited to hear your answers on this one!
I also love the fact that you've touched on the market dominance trends in regards to Ripple causing a skewed view point. Ripple is clearly making waves (haha), but it most certainly is refracting the view of the current market and a lot of people tend to miss that.
Something that I feel most people here will agree with is that you keep a very unbiased opinion on the market, and it helps you see things that most others would miss; namely the non-analytical/traditional market trends and more so the emotional trends of the market. You do a great job here and it adds fantastic value and validity to your observations.
Thanks for the continued quality uploads. Keep doing what your doing!
Cheers
@snakemeister, I see you're another CI fan. FWIW, I'll provide my take on why I'm playing in an over valued market. Because markets can continue in an over valued (I never like the term overbought for technical reasons.) manner for an unusually long time. That is reason 1. Reason 2, I've only allocated around 5-6% of my resources to cryptos at present and have no plans for significantly increasing the allocation until I see a crash. Reason 3, I use stops and advance the stops below trend lines. That cost me about 20-30% of my positions in the 12/22 whipsaw. I'm just calling it a noob mistake and adjusting my rules a bit more conservatively. Given a little more time at these levels I'll have a full position in BTC, ETH, and LTC at a reasonable basis (I hope, cringe.) My plan is to be in position for the next leg up whenever that is. In the mean time I'm simply trying to absorb some wisdom on the margins from quality sources like CI.
Regards,
Rick
@ricknarveson Thanks for your input. It's always great to get multiple perspectives on a particular question. Sorry to hear about your whipsaw loss. Stops can be a little deceiving as they tend to make us feel more secure (as they are intended to) but they still have the potential to bite you in the rear! All learning experiences, and as you say CI has some good unbiased logic to share!
Thanks for sharing!
The loss was one of my cheaper tuition payments to the school of hard knocks. I've had some doozies and have slept much easier and more profitably since I made them a hard and fast rule early in 2016 (in the stock market).
One thing that unsettles me a little about the crypto market is that it never sleeps. Do you know anything about bots? I was looking into Haas but since I can't talk to someone there they'll have to make do without my business.
Regards,
Rick
Thank you for the kind words snakemeister (your name and profile pic make me laugh). I continue to play in this market for the same reason as most people - to make money. I've already made enough at this point that I can't lose if the market crashes and I've locked in enough profits on my initial investments that I've drastically outperformed what the stock market could have done for me.
Bubbles tend to offer great opportunities to create wealth if you just play it safe rather than greedy. There are people who made a nice chunk of change in the bull housing market prior to the 2008 collapse because they didn't keep buying new properties, but instead took advantage of the rising house values without leveraging themselves to death. Then there are the people who kept buying home after home because it was affordable and they were making a killing leveraging themselves (until it collapsed)
In fact, this is true of every bubble that has ever existed - there are people who reinvest everything, and then there are the conservative ones that take some money out to guarantee they come out ahead. The latter tend to underperform as the bubble continues to inflate, but they get to sleep well at night when the bubble pops. So all in all, I play with this market to make money. I also think the bubble will keep going for a while given the state of all the other existing markets for investing.
Thanks for the response! Can't wait to see where this market goes in 2018!