What's gonna be a trigger for the next recession?

Since 2005, The office vacancy rate is ATH(All Time High). Compared to 2008 when the Subprime mortgage crisis unexpectedly happened, it's even higher than that time.

The latest recession was caused by COVID-19.

In 2008, the cause of the recession was residential real estates bubble for subprime mortgage loans.

In 2001, the cause of the recession was IT bubble.

Alright, we knew that there has been many causes of recessions. virus, residential real estates, stocks.

I think the next candidates for recessions are commercial real estates, cryptocurrencies, climate crisis. But, commercial real estates are likely to occur the next recession than cryptos, climate crisis.

Because, cryptos have already suffered the bearish market for the last more than 2.5 years. Furthermore, the price correction is enough. BTC collapsed more than 75%. Altcoins collapsed around 90%.

In my opinion, climate crisis is ongoing now. But, it would take some years to happen a food scarcity crisis, sea level rise, etc. I think it would happen around 2030.