We come from a period marked by numerous conflicts: war in Ukraine, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, clashes in the Red Sea, threats exchanged between major powers, and an undeniable global sense of instability. And yet, contrary to all conventional predictions, oil prices have not only failed to skyrocket, but at various points—in fact, for most of 2025—they have clearly been declining. This strikes many specialists I've consulted as almost contradictory.

Looking back, the pattern was quite clear. In 1973, with the Yom Kippur War and the OPEC oil embargo, the price of crude oil quadrupled and forever changed the global economy. In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait , oil prices surged within weeks amid fears of a massive supply disruption. Even more recently, in 2003, with the US invasion of Iraq, the market reacted positively, anticipating a higher-risk scenario in a key region for global production.

More recently, in 2011, during the Arab Spring, the unrest in Libya was enough to cause oil prices to spike, even though other producing countries continued operating relatively normally. And then there were the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which triggered an immediate price surge, even though the physical damage was contained within a few days. The market always reacted first with fear.

So, what's happening now? Why, with active wars and real geopolitical tensions, isn't oil behaving as it "should"?

From what I've been reading, it has to do with demand. Global economic growth isn't at its best. Europe remains weak, China is no longer growing as it once did, and energy consumption isn't increasing at the pace of previous years. Added to this is greater diversification of sources, more production outside of OPEC, and strategic reserves that are now playing a much more active role than in the past.

There's also a distinct psychological factor. Markets have, in a way, become more cynical or more resilient to shock. They no longer react with the same intensity to every war headline because they understand that not every conflict ends up directly affecting the actual flow of oil. Furthermore, the United States has established itself as one of the world's largest producers, something unthinkable a few decades ago, and that mitigates many fears.

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All this doesn't mean that oil has ceased to be sensitive to war. It simply means that the context has changed. The unwritten rules are still there, but with nuances. And like almost everything these days, what was once automatic is now more complex, more ambiguous, less predictable. That's why you have to read a lot to at least stay informed and try to understand what's happening.

Personally, I find it interesting and relevant to know that clinging too tightly to past certainties can be dangerous. The world changes, markets change, and although history rhymes, it doesn't always repeat itself in the same way. It's just a thought, nothing more. You can agree or disagree, that's valid too. Goodbye, take care.

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