MARKETS STAGES

Right now, a fundamental shift is underway in the cryptocurrency market. I believe we are in the earliest stages of the bull market, not the insane mania blow-off top bull market phase. I know we all spent most of 2022 getting chopped up and that has given a lot of investors some doubt. People still think Bitcoin is going down 10k, and a lot of money is still sidelined. The market is kind of stuck in a state of disbelief at this really which has become something of a hated rally because not enough people were on board that train. I believe the asset prices we are seeing in 2023 will probably be the last best chance to buy many of these top coins at this kind of price.

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I believe we are in the disbelief stage base on the market cycle. Markets go through cycles and buying low and selling high is the only way to win at this game. The sad truth is that most investors buy at stages 5 and 6 during the Euphoria times when it feels safe. That's the most dangerous time to buy and very few investors buy at the lows around stages 11, 12, and 13 yet that is the safest and the most profitable time to be entering the market. The people buying now are the ones who are going to be selling to those who only enter last in the cycle when all the euphoria stuff kicks in having that false center security taking a massive risk.

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One the biggest leading indicators for the market cycles is actually the flow of money, the flow of global liquidity. Global liquidity bottomed out in November 2022 right around the time of the FTX collapse and of course the low for Bitcoin. That's when China started pumping money back into the system. China started opening and just dropping truckloads of cash into the economy, a few weeks later join them by buying truckloads of bonds as well. We are now in the post peaked Bitcoin world, which means the amount of Bitcoin Bitcoin exchanges peaked in March 2020 when the Covid crash happened. We are never going to see that amount of Bitcoin on exchanges ever again. Since that time the total supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has surely been trending downwards continually. Another Bitcoin halving is on the way which will cause yet another supply shock as miner rewards are then cut in half as much of Bitcoin every single day. We are heading for a massive supply crisis for Bitcoin in the coming years.