Trying to understand the root of the disagreement between AI skeptics and AI capability optimists.

My basic thesis is this:

If a software system can reproduce the function of a biological brain on any scale, then creating a generally intelligent human-level system is mainly a matter of scaling. Given the history of computing, it is very likely that AI systems will continue to scale at an exponential rate. Therefore, as soon as I was convinced that AI systems were reproducing some aspect of human reasoning, I became convinced of a timeline to human-level reasoning -- and beyond.

To use an analogy: as soon as the Wright brothers made the first heavier-than-air flight, it was reasonable to conclude that airplanes would eventually be competitive with any bird, and even go far beyond.

We should judge technologies on their ultimate ability, not their initial capabilities. But what is the ultimate ability of AI?

Well, it is likely to be at least genius human level, since human geniuses already exist. Quite likely the limits are well beyond the best human, given that artificial systems are not constrained by evolution.