Bitcoin Course - Analysis. There is still a space for falling
Bitcoin definitely went south to lower prices. This opens the possibility to buy at a discount. The question is where is the ideal place to buy? When will it bounce back? That’s hard to guess, but we’ll try to look at it today’s analysis.
Firstly, I would focus on the elliott wave. If the previous double-top was a part of the corrective ABC elliott wave, then the next drop would have to be controlled by the elliott wave 12345. The current drop would correspond to line 0-1. We can conclude from that that there are two more such sales, with the second drop being the longest one.
The price growth would probably be short-lasting
The first line is important to us, because we are looking for its end and the reflection. This should cause short-term price increases, but everything should remain under the main trend line, so the reflection will not rise above the target. If there was a breakdown of the target, then it would mean a significant change of the situation. The current dump may end on Monday, or at any time this week. It is also necessary to expect a massive sale if the price of bitcoin drops below $ 6000 which would also be a sign of the end of the fall.
Another option of ending the dump is a significant change in the current local trend – marked with red arrows indicating the channel narrowing. Once there is not enough space, the price may break up or down.
I recommend not to buy yet. If there is a reflection, you can buy speculatively, but do not expect long-term growth, be prepared to sell after any bigger growth because it will not last long.
Sentiment in the market, exchanges and interest
OKEX top traders votes in favor for short (47:52). In volume, the long positions lead (29:25). This corresponds to the current unclear situation. If the price goes lower, the top traders will be closing their long positions, bringing the price more down. But there must be a high final pressure to long positions.
Bitfinex sentiment is in the ratio of 34:22 – There are more long positions in the market. But the number of shorts, on the contrary, drops with the falling prices.
Interest on US dollars is falling and now you can get dollars for 0.0176%. By contrast, interest on Bitcoin is bigger – 0.0343%, but it is not a big difference.
Recommendation: Do not buy or sell for now. Buy speculatively if the local trend is disturbed, but hold it only for limited time. If you need to sell, there is a risk that you will sell at the bottom. Waiting for the reflection may be worth it.
Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as an investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. High profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.
Česky: http://btctip.cz/kurz-bitcoinu-analyza-smerem-dolu-je-jeste-mista-dost/
Thank you very much for this analysis.
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