The document you link rules out a first strike. They closest they come is a "pre-emption" option that was under the assumption they detected an imminent attack. You're describing a nash equillibrium in the second paragraph, and I completely agree that is what it is.

I'm not sure your analogy works. This is threatening violence to be left alone, not abuse others. If there are no police or higher authorities to appeal to, this would also be a rational strategy. You see it in rural communities all the time. Posturing like this is common in human behavior, and has been ritualized in things like the india-pakistan border closings and haka dances.

Good points overall - Have a nice day!