wonp2 MIKEMAZZONE READS THE WAR ON NORMAL PEOPLE BY ANDREW YANG PART 2

https://bittubers.com/playlist/1006/1 The fifth tie and unlike zone and I'm reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang two how we got here the great displacement and didn't arrive overnight it has been building for decades as the economy and labor market changed in response two improving technology for initialization change incorporate norms and globalization in the 1970s when my peers work that GE and blue cross blue shield in upstate New York their companies provided generous pensions and expected them to stay for decades community banks were boring businesses that lent money to local companies for a modest return over 20% of workers were unionized some economic problems existed growth was uneven and inflation periodically hide for but income inequality was low jobs provided benefits and main street businesses where the drivers of the economy there were only three television networks in my house we watch them on a TV with an antenna that we fiddled with to make the picture clearer they all seems awfully quaint today pensions disappear for private sector employer employees years ago most community banks were gobbled up by one of the mega banks in the 1990s did a five bass control 50% of the commercial banking industry which itself mushroomed to the point where finance enjoys about 25% of all corporate profits union membership fell by 50% 49% of the jobs created between 2005 and 2015 where temp or contractor jobs without benefits people working multiple gigs to make ends meet is increasingly the norm real wages have been flat or even declining the chances that an American born in 1990 will earn more than their parents are down to 50% for Americans born in 1940 the same figure was 92% base to Milton Friedman jack Welch and other corporate titans the goals of large companies began to change in the 1970s and early 1980s the notion they espoused the company exists only to maximize its share price became gospel in business schools in boardrooms of around the country companies were pushed to adopt shareholder value as their sole measuring stick hostile takeovers shareholder lawsuits and later at them as hedge funds served as props to ensure the managers were committed to profitability at all costs on the flip side CEOs were granted stock options for the first time that wended their individual game to the company's share price the ratio of ceo to worker pay rose from 0:40 in 1965 to 271 to one in 2016 benefits were streamlined and reduced and the relationship between company employee weakens to become more transactional simultaneously the major banks grew and evolve as depression era regulations separating consumer lending and investment banking were unpolished financial deregulation started under Ronald Reagan in 1980 and culminated in the Financial Services might arise a shun act of 1999 under Bill Clinton the release of the bank's loose the securities industry grew 500% is a share of GDP between 1980 and a two thousand's while ordinary bank deposits trade from 90% to 50% for the initial products multiplied as even mainstream companies were driven to pursue Financial Engineering to manage their affairs GE and my dad's old company and once a beacon of manufacturing became the fifth biggest financial institution in the country by 2007 with improved technology and new access to global markets for American companies realized they could outsource manufacturing information technology and cussed customer service to Chinese and Mexican factories and Indian programmers and call centers U.S. companies outsource din of shored 14,000,000 jobs by 2013 many of which would have previously been filled by domestic workers at higher wages is resulted in lower prices higher efficiencies and new opportunities but also increase pressure on American workers who now had to compete with a global labor pool automation started out on farms earlier in the country with tractors and then migrated to factories in the 1970s manufacturing employment begins to slip around 1978 as wage wrote began to fall median wages used to go up in lockstep with productivity and GDP growth before diverging sharply in the 1970s says 1973 productivity has directed rocketed relative to the hourly compensation of the average wage earner chart to how workers are compensated and how their companies perform stop being a line over the same. The even as corporate profitability has soared to record highs workers are earning less the share of GDP going to wages have fallen from almost 54% in 1970 to 44% in 2013 while the share going to corporate profits went from about 4% 211 percent for being a shareholder has been great for your bottom line being a worker not so much for the day inequality has surged to historic levels with benefits flowing increasingly to the top 1%20% of earners due to an aggregation of capital at the top and increased winner take all economies the top 1% have accrued 52% of the real income growth in America since 2009 technology is a big part of the story as it tends to lead to a small handful of winners studies have shown that everyone is less happy in an unequal society shirt seed in those at the top the wealthy experience higher levels of depression and suspicion in unequal societies apparently being high status these easier we don't feel bad about its Johnstone grown like they used to companies cannot prosper row inmate record profits without hiring many people or increasing wages job creation and wage growth have been weaker than the top line economic growth would suggest since the 1970s in each of the last several decades the economy has created lower percentages of new jobs including no new net jobs between 2020 time due to the great recession charts fifth th a changing role of labor can be seen in the time it has taken to recover from the past several recessions United States has suffered several major recession since 1988 recession has stripped of more jobs and taken longer to recover from been the last the new companies to prosper and grow they don't tend to employ as many people as they did in the past the major companies of today employed many fewer workers in the major enterprises of yesteryear chart T the company's of the future simply don't need as many people as the company's of earlier Eras and more of their employees have specialized skills if one looks at the numbers they clearly show an economy that is having a hard time creating new jobs at previous levels the altar show street medians that its median wages by corporate profitability lower turns on neighbor and high inequality all of which one would expect if technology and automation were already transforming the economy in the fundamental ways as MIT Professor Eric where Georgeson puts its people are falling behind because technology is advancing so fast in our skills and our organizations aren't keeping up the winner take all economy has set us up for once coming a rather than recognizing the extent to which economic value is diversion more and more from human time and neighbor be essentially keep pretending it's the 1970s we've been able to get away with this pretense for a few decades by loading up on debt in cheap money including a future of a nation's that has run its course with this technology is really set to take off and render more of our labor obsoletes particularly for normal Americans you might be wondering at my choice of terminology and normal Americans will explore that's next fifth three who is normal in America for the future is already here is just unevenly distributed William Gibson some of my friends didn't like the title of this book when I shared it with them the word normal has become frightens men to signify a certain perspective or way of life when I say normal I mean the average is in a few lined up Americans by some quality or treat or classification education income and savings proximity to living in a city and so on the person in the middle would be normal so having up each day is not normal than either is being a junior high dropouts when I was traveling in New Orleans last year I had a conversation with my uber driver that stuck with me Lori was a pleasant woman in her late forties who look like a typical suburban mom when she found out that I worked in entrepreneurship she explained this crates I'm an entrepreneur two she had started a kitchen remodeling business a few years earlier as he talked emerge that her business had dried up and that she was driving a number to make ANS meets she had two sons one of whom had special needs action tiered up talking about trying to find the right school for him she and her family got died on a partial disability payment that she received on behalf of her husband when died a few years earlier I don't know what we'd do without that's we're barely scraping by as it has he said her voice crackling cracking by the end of the rhine she had composed herself the seemed a little embarrassed as we said our goodbyes I was a little embarrassed two for a different reason they thought me and my problems are total amount says it's nonsense compared to her problems my circles didn't include many people in her position or stressed about paying next month's bills with a single mom I chatted with the New Orleans driving a car to make ends meet was pretty normal the Iraq that's working as a security guard in Detroit Detroit who talk sports with me is normal became home having seen a couple friends died and felt lucky to have found a secure job it's the bartender in Cleveland I spoke too was trying to save up to go to nursing school is normal she was taking time off from school to save money I found com berm conversations with Americans like these in lightning many of my friends and peers in New York in Samper Cisco had little reason to visit cities in the middle of the country in even cities like New Orleans Detroit Cleveland and Pittsburgh wearing him Baltimore St. Louis incense and Cincinnati are illicit pillars of Congress education and prosperity compared to their surrounding areas in most of the country most of us live around people like ourselves with feels normal to each of us is based on our context knowing which truly normal or averaging a big country like America of require some work to date occasion for instance if you are reading this you're probably a college graduate or students and most of the people you know also graduated from college that puts you your friends and your family in approximately the top third of the U.S. population if you have a graduate or professional degree you are in the top 12% of the population by educational attainments the average American achieves something being between one credit of college and associates degree if the 60.25% of Americans 25 years and older have attended some college and 43.51% have at least in associates and agree these numbers translate the upwards among younger people however it would be entirely accurate to say that the average American is not in college graduates they give your five best friends the odds of them all being college graduates if you took your random sampling of Americans would be about 1/3 1% or 0.0036 likelihood of war or more of them being college graduates would only would be only about 4% if that described you are among the educated class even without necessarily knowing it's in your context you're perfectly normal charts fifth that was normal in education how about wealth and income the median household income was 59,309 in 2016 each household typically consists of multiple family members however the median personal income in the U.S. was 31,000 $99.00 in 2016 and the meaning was 46,550 the relative and the relevant statistics for saying how most people live and work is the median as the main constraint up by the handful of people making millions at the top the median is the midpoint if you lined everyone up by income half of Americans make less than $31,099 and have made more than 70% of individuals making $50,000 or less use the median income sorted by education level charts the four O O G again if you're reading this is unlikely that 70% of the people you know make $50,000 or less among the college graduate crown the average is $55,000 with higher averages of $61,000 in $91,000 for those with a master's or professional degree respectively the bureau of labor statistics places the median hourly wage at $17.40 which would mean about 35 hours of paid work per week over 50 weeks this is consistent with the average of 34.4 hours reported by the OECD so the average American worker has less than and associates degree and makes about $17.00 per hour last U.S. census mapped 8.1% of American people in urban areas and 19.9% in rural areas this is misleading though the senses classified anything in a metro area even the most far flung summer as Herman a recent national survey from the online real estate site truly have found that only 26% of people identify their neighborhood and spurred an mall 53% described it as summer in and 21% as rural the consensus view is that about half of Americans live in the summers and that this still represents the most common type of home for most Americans per capita income varies by state and district in 2016 the District of Columbia I had the highest per capita income at 50,567 while Mississippi had the lowest as 22,694 the 25th and 26 rate states where Ohio and Maine with an average income of 829000604 and 29,164 is that if lee is telling that our National Capital has the highest income you might have seen some of the stories about financial insecurity in the United States a big rates survey in 2017 found that 59% of Americans don't have the savings to pay an unexpected expense of $500 and would need to put it on a credit card as for help or cut back for several months to manage its a similar Federal Reserve report in 2015 said that 75% of Americans could not pay $400 emergency expense out of their checking or savings accounts for average Americans with high school diplomas or some college the median net worth hovers around $36,000 including home equity 63.7% of Americans own their home down from a high of 69% in 2004 however their net worth goes down to only 9000 to 12,000 if you don't include home equity and only 4000 to 7000 dollars if you remove the value of their car shots T D unfortunately though racial disparities are dramatic with black in 190 households owning dramatically lower assets across the board and whites and Asians literally having 8 to 12 times higher levels of assets on average while owning homes at dramatically higher rates 75%59% for whites and Asians vs. 48%46% for Hispanics and blacks church of the racial statistics make my head and heart hurts there are also consistent differences between men and women women let households have 12% less wealth than male lead households and women on average make 20% less than men this is also painful however women are pulling ahead of men on the education front which more on this later we tend to use the stock market's performance as a shorthand indicator of national well being however the median level of stock market investment is close to zero only 52% of Americans own any stop through a stock mutual fund or a self directed 401 Kay Orr Ira and the bottom 80% of Americans own only 8% of all stocks yes the top 20% own 92% of stock market holdings this means that the average worker average American and benefits minimally from a rising stock market beyond the willful fact which is that the rich people around them spend more money and the economy is more buoyant so what's normal the normal American it did not graduate from college and doesn't have an associates degree he or she perhaps attended college for one year or graduated from high school she or he has a net worth of approximately 36,000 about 6000 excluding home and vehicle equity and lives paycheck two paycheck she or he has less than $500 inflexible savings and minimal assets invested in the stock market's these Armenian statistics with 50% of Americans below these levels if you're reading this is probably doesn't describe your life or those of your friends and family in may be shocking to you that this is statistically totally normal and is always someone less surprising to me because of my travel and work these past years when john stark to disappear in large numbers due to technological advances the normal American won't have much to fall back on fifth war what we do for a living by recently emailed a friend David two secured to schedule in meeting when David replied he copied in another recipients in a in Graham why assumed was his assistants here is the e-mail I got from hanging in the Ingraham in the attic stop the eye January 12 by Andrew happy to get something on david's calendar this Tuesday, January 17 at 8:30 AM eastern time work alternatively David is available Tuesday, January 17 at 2:00 PM eastern or Wednesday, January 18 at 10:30 AM David likes brooklyn roasting company 25th jay street brooklyn New York 11 to 01 USA for coffee ad in the Ingraham personal assistant to David Eckstein Ai and are officially we intelligent assistance their schedules meeting its I responded and then gone up calendar invites only days later did I register that inning in Graham was a check box and that a study I was a tech company letting David toll may that he once scheduled a meeting was someone else who was using the same service the two bus he mailed each other repeatedly to hash out the time of course the assistance to more than schedule meetings the draft correspondence conduct research remind you of deadlines sitting on calls and meetings and too many other tasks but increasingly all of the stacks are going to be that a man of clown based artificial intelligence the rise of the machine that makes human work obsolete as long been thought to be science fiction today this is the reality we face although the seriousness of the situation has not reach the mainstream yachts the average American is in deep trouble many Americans are in danger of losing their jobs right now due to automation not in 10 or 15 years right now here are the standard sectors Americans work in charts fifth to 68,000,000 Americans out of a work force of 114,000,048.5% work in one of these five sectors each of these labor groups is being replaced bright now clerical and administrative staff this is the most common occupational group the Kinsey suggest that between 64 and 69% of data collecting and processing tasks common in administrative settings are often readable : apple and Amazon are investing billions in artificial intelligence a I administrative assistance they can replace these jobs many of the settings for these jobs are large corporates that during the next downturn will replace the headcount with a combination of software box and a I consider that 2.5 million of the jobs in the clerical and administrative care category are customer service representatives you're typically high school graduates making $15.53 an hour or $32,000 a year in call centers we've all had crummy experiences with voice recognition software and pounded our phone keys until we got a human on the line by the Ai experience is about to improve too low a point where we're not going to be able to tell the difference several companies right now employ a hybrid approach where voice recordings are combined with a human in the Philippines tapping buttons so that a Filipino can call due but you think you're talking to a native speaker because you're hearing a prerecorded voice this is called axent erasing software so there will be an Ai heating the buttons and our ability to distinguish between a call from a pot and a person will disappear Roble like cascio the founder and ceo of light person which manages customer service for thousands of businesses is one of the leading authorities on call center it's as the inventor of web chat technology like person just started rolling out hybrid bots for clients like royal bank of Scotland a customer can be passed between a box and a few men and back again depending on the set of issues run estimates that 40 to 50% of tasks performed in customer care are ripe for other nations and eighth based on existing technology he foresees an automation tsunami that will leave tens of millions of workers stranded as which curtailed employment prospects are rated terry shock wave of economic hardship that could be felt for generations he notes that most of the affected people are likely to be in lower income brackets without the luxury of time two retrain and without the savings to invest in RE education when the ceo of a company called black person says that about the prospects of human workers in his industry is a pretty terrible signing a match with a technologist of who works with one of the major financial institutions the estimated that 30% of the bank's home office workers more than 30,000 employees were engaged in clerical tasks transferring information from one system two on other and he believed and that their roles would be automated within the next five years I had a similar conversation with a friend at another bank who told me that many of the people in the Samper Cisco homeless shelter he volunteers at used to work in clerical roles that are no longer necessary and that his bank was similarly downsizing back office and clerical workers in large numbers some argue that it will be possible to automate only a portion of each person's job but if you have a department of 100 clerical workers and you find that 50% of their work and the automated the fire half of them until the remaining workers to adjust and then you do it again the next year clerical tasks are almost always cost centers not growth and drivers of is a administrative support jobs are going to disappear by the tens of thousands into the cloud as offices become increasingly more automated and deficient fifth sales and retail we've all gone to our local CBS to be greeted by a self service scanner at the end is only one employee the troubleshooter where there used to be too warm three cashiers this is the case where local store still exist a lot of them are closing of rights about one in 10 American workers work in retail and she sails with 8.8 million working as retail sales workers the oven average income of $11.00 per hour or $22,900 per year many have not graduated from high school if their median age is 3960% of department store workers are female the year 2017 mark the beginning of what is being called the retail up a collapse 100,000 department store workers were laid off between October 2016 and made 2017 more than all of the people employed in the coal industry combined said the New York Times in April 2017 the job losses in retail could have unexpected social and political consequences as huge numbers of low rate retail employees become economically unhinged just as manufacturing workers did in recent decades Wall Street analysts have teamed the entire sector borderline on investable as incense and hundreds of malls are closing as their anchor stores Jc Penney Sears soon to be bankrupt and macy's close dozens of locations among the change that have declared bankruptcy in recently are Payless 4496 stores the CBT 175 stores the rope a stale 800 stores made a 180 stores and the limited 250 stores is a 2017 those in danger of default include players 2867 stores game or a 1200 stores nine west 800 stores true religion 900 stores and other fixtures that may be bankrupt or defunct by the time you read this Christmas estimated that 8640 major retail locations will close in 2017 the highest number in history exceeding the 2008 peak during the financial crisis credit Suisse also recommended that as many as 147,000,000 square feet of retail space will close in 2017 on other all time high for reference the mall of America is the biggest mall in the country at 2.8 million square feet the equivalent of 52 miles of America are closing in 2017 or one per week costar a comedic commercial real estate firm estimated in 2017 the roughly 310 out of the nation's 1300 shopping malls are at high risk of losing an acre store which typically begins a malls steep decline and other retail analyst predicted that 400 balls will fail in the next few years and that 650 of remaining 900 miles will struggle to stay open use a map of scheduled macy's Sears and Kmart closures as of 2017 net I grew up going to my local mall in Yorktown Heights New York and represented the heads of many things to me at the Time Commerce culture freedom status I would take out a few clothing items that way for them to go on sale buying a thing or two would give me joy that would run into classmates at the mall for good or ill the time is gone for good in much of the country it's when a mall closes or gets written down there are many bad things that happen to the local community first many people lose their jobs each shutter mall reflects about 1000 lost jobs at an average income of $22,000 is about $22,000,000 in lost wages for eight community an additional 300 jobs are generally lost at local businesses will either supply the mall or sell to the workers he gets worse the local mall is one of the pillars of the regional budgets the sales tax goes straight to the county and the state's and so does the property tax when the property tax gets written down the community loses a big chunk of tax revenue this means truck and municipal budgets cuts to school budgets and job reductions in local government offices on average a single macy's store generates about $36,000,000 a year and current sales tax and property tax rates that store is closed where the day budget hole of several $1,000,000 for the state and county to deal with if you've ever been to a dead or dying mall you know that it's both depressing and he really is a sign that a community can support a commercial center and that it may be time to leave is not just you die in malls become havens for crime one declining Memphis area mall reported 890 crime incidents over several years cars are keyed randomly in mall parking lots and there's not enough security to provide the level of safety of family wants while they're at the mall said one local residents in at krona died mall was the site of a man's all education death when he was trying to steal copper wire while a homeless man was sentenced to prison for living inside a vacant house the mayor of a crime eventually instructed residents teus state fair of the area before the mall was targeted for demolition ghost malls are an example of what I call negative infrastructure the physical structure of the mall has immense value if there is commerce an activity within if there isn't a can very quickly become a blight on a community in reminds me of when I first visited detroit's and its surrounding suburbs at the bottom of their decline you can see all hallmarks of people reading lives in a once thriving economy there salons day Care Centers coffee shops and so on but as the economy decayed people left in businesses closed the value of all those buildings storefronts and homes when fronts use the positive to hugely negative unused infrastructure decays quickly and gives an environment of bleak dystopia the atmosphere like a zombie movie sets of glad to say that Detroit has gotten a lot better since 2011 there have been heroic efforts two RE purpose malls in innovative ways offices of his Parks recreation center's medical offices experimental retail even public art spaces there's a giant small outfits outside San Antonio that the web hosting company rack space has turned into its corporate headquarters it's amazing to visits before every successful adaptation you're going to be 10 others the live in kids in disuse and become crime rate in shells that reduced property value for miles around and will stop there and I'm reading the war on normal people by injury Ing and unlike zone thanks for listening for one of the fifth of the fifth of the fifth and HD one GE GGEDHEE DD