wonp4 MIKEMAZZONE READS THE WAR ON NORMAL PEOPLE BY ANDREW YANG PART 4

https://bittubers.com/playlist/1006/3 For by unlike zone and I'm reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang the vanishing jobs are due in part to the incredible development of both computer computing power and artificial intelligence for you might have heard of moore's law that states that Computer Power grows exponentially doubling every 18 months for which I to understand what exponential growth means overtime take the example of a 1971 Volkswagen and peoples deficiency for if it had advanced according to moore's law the vehicle in 2015 would be able to go 300,000 miles per hour and its two million miles per gallon of gas for this was happening with computers people did that moore's law could hold for the past 50 years but it has incompetent computers continue to get smarter until Microsoft google and IBM are investing in quantum computers computers that store information on subatomic particles that would extend moore's law for years to come for we're just now hitting the rapid ascent of computers that are unfair them and on fellow Mobley fast in powerful when the IBM Computer deep blue defeated the world's foremost chess player in 1996 people were impressed but not that impressed jazz is a game where there is a very large but finite number of moves and possibilities and if you have enough computing power you can project out all of the next possible steps below is another story goes a 3000 year old Chinese game with theoretical infinite moves in order to beat the world's best go players and II would need to use something resembling judgments and create two Witte in addition to your computation for the 2015 google state my beat the world smashed no player and then did it again in 2017 against other world champions go champions for loot didn't keep in mind strategies and said that it used moves and tactics no one had ever seen before new kinds of Ai are emerging that can do much of what we now consider intelligence and creative you might have heard the term machine learning which is an application of Ai in which you give machines access to data and let them learn for themselves with the best methods are machine learning is particularly powerful because you don't have to prescribe the exact actions and routes you set guidelines and then the Ai sorts synthesizing data and making choices and recommendations for some of the early applications of machine learning include tagging images spam filtering finding keywords in documents detecting of liars for credit card fraud in recommending stock trades and other rules based tasks machine learning is often used in conjunction with another term youth heard big data because of the digital ridge a revolution we now have access to much more information than at any point in history and the rate of new information is growing exponentially one estimate is that more data is being treated in the past two years than in the entire history of the human race for example the perform 40,000,000 search queries every second just an parole which adds up to 1.2 trillion searches per year interval which represents the new piece of information for by 2020 about 1.7 MB of information will be created every second for every few men being on the planet's for much of this information is mundane a catalog of people's people clicking on friends photos of Asa Graham and the like that a point is that in this flood of new data there will be very useful pieces of actionable information you after you've all are airy Boston it's a world where based on analyzing your online data and he I could tell you which person you should choose to Mary there is no big money pouring into trying to process all this information one estimate is that a typical fortune 1000 company would make another $65,000,000 a year by increasing its use of data by 10% and that only 0.5% of available data is presented as in the analyzed and used for another estimate is that the Healthcare System would save $300,000,000 per year or $1000 per citizen per year with the improved use of data for industries that utilize large amounts of data like Financial Services are ready being transformed to take advantage of new capabilities the finance industry is in many ways a natural home for automation that asks a highly repetitive and logical the cetaceans are rich inefficient see minded in the culture is hyper competitive bounded into 1000 eights betterment is an automated investment in service that by 2017 and more than nine billion dollars under management with lower fees an automated investment decisions that are maintained its competitor will front lousy replace the traditional financial and vice are Seda financial times younger clients don't want and can't afford an annual meeting with an adviser talking about the relative pros and cons of emerging markets bonds or structured products they want simple guidance and 24 hour access they don't want advice delivered in an office they once an act by 2020 global assets under management of Robo adviser's are projected to skyrocket to 8.1 trillion and 72% of investors under 40 said they would be comfortable working with a virtual and visor 5500th floor traders once roamed the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange now there are fewer than 400 as most rating jobs have been taken over by servers running trading algorithms those scenes you see on CNBC are not of the New York Stock Exchange but of the Chicago mercantile exchange where they still have enough humans to make a good backdrop Goldman Sachs went from 84 women from 600 NYSE traders in 2000 to just two in 2017 supported by 200 computer engineers in 2016 the president of the Financial Services firm state street predicted that 20% fifth of his 32,000 employees will be automated out of jobs into the next four years anyway I for investors and its platform called can show has been adopted by the major Investment Banks that does the work that cues to be done by investment banking and Alice analysts correct the tale of reports based on global events and company data can show is valued at 500 $1,000,000 after less than four years in business that can show a report that would have taken 40 hours for a highly educated human being paid $250,000 per year can now be done in minutes accordingly Bloomberg reported that Wall Street reached Pete human in 2016 and will now shed jobs progressively which has been borne out by layoffs this year at most of the major banks the insurance industry which employs 2.5 million Americans revolves around processing information is also makes it particularly ripe for automation Mckinsey predicts a massive diminution in an Insurance Staffing across the board particularly in their operations and sales agents departments rejecting a 25% so will decrease in employment by 2015 that will mean hundreds of thousands fewer white collar workers in cities around the country accountants and bookkeepers are vulnerable 21 accountant describe switching from milling per hour tomb of the retainers because cloud Accounting Software was automatically doing the bookkeeping and suddenly wasn't spending any time on its there are 1.7 million bookkeeping accounting and auditing clerks in the United States an additional 1.2 million accountants and auditors bookkeeping and clerks are already starting to disappear account and stop briefly about shifting their time to advise clients on financial strategy of employed half a dozen accountants in my life and most of the time you just want to get your taxes done and filed even occupations they revolve around more around words than numbers are at risk ID lloyd's reported 2016 projected that 39% of jobs in the legal sector will be automated and that the industry should expect profound reforms in the next 10 years the particular paralegals and legal secretaries are expected to be replaced and overall employment in the sector is expected to shrink as many law firms will contract or consolidates when I went to law school in the late 1990s people regarded it as a safe career move did a law schools churn out many more graduates than the market requires and the market for their services is shrinking a friend of mine runs an Ai company that is automating basic litigation tasks routine responses filings and document review or large companies who won't need to hire as many freshly minted lawyers as a results I met with cliff and Dutton the chief innovation and officer of a global legal processing company who described how human attorneys have about a 60% perceived precision rates reviewing boxes of legal documents I remember performing document review as a young associates my eyes glazed over a couple of hours even when I was trying hard to focus the compatible rate for a I enabled software is already closer to 85% accuracy and it's a lot faster than a team of lawyers could ever be even more than lawyers doctors have built up their expertise wisdom and decision-making ability through many painstaking years of both training and practice you die as the high and a Dr. Friend who attended an MIT and Harvard how much of medical practice he thought could be performed via automation he said at least 80% of its peers cookbook you just do what you know you're supposed to do there's not much imagination or create 72 most of medicine I sat with a technologist to project which aspects of medicine are most ripe for automation is responses were radiology has discussed above Beth Aussie very similar family medicine a nurse practitioner or even made person could handle most issues with the assistance of a IE a dermatology similar in a couple other specialties Yasser talked about how surgeons he knows enjoyed the robots assisted operating theater because it greatly enhance their vision and ability to see things in the robot tools automatically I counted for unwanted movements and motions like in trembling hands also students who were meant to train can see everything without being in the Rome and decision could review his procedure after the fact I asked if doctors are potentially perform surgeries from remote locations you responded eventually right now doctors want to be nearby and the latency of long distance data transmission were still cause delays or land use its still the agreed that Robo assisted surgery will soon open up the ability for a top surgeon to perform surgeries around the world they also means that you can record surgeries and all of the micro decisions that surgeons make with the data eventually a I could analyze thousands of surgeries and know what to do in every situation the first robot dental implantation with no human intervention just took place in China in September 2017 the robot went and installed two new implants that had been printed by 83 the printer robot super surgeons might be one generation away most people assume that humans will always have the advantage over in a ivory comes to work that requires creativity like painting or music and judge the required nuanced sensitive human interaction light therapy in fact goggles Norrell network of Computer System model to think like it human has produced part on the next page can also check out the symphony online that was composed by a software program I am us which many listeners found indiscernible from a steaming composition where was performs for good rule and some by Ins and take a listen in which you might have faded the therapy could be the last province of automation is so you were wrong USC researchers wanted by the Dept of Defense in 2016 created an Ai therapist named ally to treat veterans for post traumatic stress disorder ptsd Ali appears as if the EU avatar and provides soothing questions and responses Ali measures moist tone and facial expressions to try to identify whether a soldier needs to seek additional treatment with eight human counselor early research is promising in indicates that soldiers often feel more comfortable confiding in a purely artificial therapist than an actual a human being alley is meant to be a compliment to some and therapists but one can easily imagine her checking in with patients in between appointments and taking on more overtime for when I was the team I had to have for teeth pulled in preparation for wearing braces I was actually kind of excited about it because I saw my kids teeth and was like whenever it takes that's not have those I remember going to the dentist and wondering what kind of magic he would employ to pull the teeth not much better Kidman just put some pliers on the front two and eight in jerked fifth until it hits came out the second one was stubborn and he had to shift position saw few times I remember him putting his foot on my chest in making a way I walked away thinking Mao dances have to be kind of strong to do what they do also my jaw hurts and tell the story because often the boundary between what we consider intellectual and Manual work will be unclear surgeons are among the highest trained most highly compensated doctors because people open because cutting people open is a big deal for yet their highest value work is for the most part Manual and mechanical my surgeon friends often swear off activities like basketball because they are worried they'll hurt their fingers or hands some jobs might not go away the instance new technology arrives that could replace them for much of how automation unfolds in medicine is dependent upon regulations and licensing is presently illegal to deuce is many things without a Dr. or pharmacist selections is it very likely to be a field where technical innovation fire on strips implementation because doctors will fight the steps and they have a very powerful lobby they will argue that no one is as good for a patient is a highly trained Shuman Dr. Even in the face of dramatic evidence to the contrary as Ai improves some patients also might prefer seeing that human Dr. Though I suspect this preferences will fade over time there are many obstacles to a I truly becoming brought the intelligent one neuroscientist describes most systems today as being better than its human could ever be at one specific task and dumber than a two year olds at anything else still our conception of what is beyond the capacity of a computer is about to change there is a lot of white collar and creative work that can be automated in startups we have a saying of what to do when you're not sure what the answer his throw money at the problem soon the answer to everything will be throwing a IE at the problem if you think your job is safe from computers you'll probably be wrong eventually the purpose and nature of work is going to change a lot in the next 10 years the question is what will drive this change aside from the fact that fewer of us will have jobs to go two of seven on humanity and work for I've been in one significant car accident and was 20 years old driving at night from providence to visit my brother in Boston I was behind the wheel of my families old Honda accord that was a rainy nights as I approached Boston full speed highway traffic ended with a traffic lights and I noticed only when the stopped car in front of me was great to close at and the brakes in my entire screeched by still hit the car in front of me hard you pack crumbled the rear third of the car in front of me in caves in the front of my old record which folded up like an accordion a jerk forward into my seat belt stunned after a few seconds I get out and went to the car in front of me is everyone OK the site of the bruin car in front of me made me cringe no one was hurt they were three people in the car not much older than me they were shaken up but fine they weren't angry at all and apologized several times I felt like a grade eight jerk meal waited for a police car in tow trucks as cars went past posts in the rain we made small talk about how we weren't sure if our cars were sell its eligible into give up 30 minutes but it felt like HRS and rode in the passenger seat of the tow truck to the garage and wheat and therefore my brother to come and get me the grunge was closed so after the truck driver left I waited outside in the rain on the kurd with my head in my hands I remember this night in part because I had broken up with my college girlfriend or she had broken up with me earlier that day this was back when people dated in college I was upset about it and was heading to Boston to hole up with my brother is safe to say that my emotional state contributed to my inattentiveness and may even have been a key factor in my beer and zinc that car of humanity is what makes us unique people are the most important aspect of all our lives that said art human qualities may not always makers ideal drivers counselors servers salespeople help desk workers and so on drivers lose concentration counselors might confidence is servers have bad days and our mood salespeople have biases and act inappropriately helpdesk workers get bored and so on is a big distinction between humans and aris humans and humans as workers the former are indispensable the latter may not been you've all are arrayed in homeowner day as makes the point that our camp driver can look into the sky contemplate the meaning of life tear up at the sound of an upper two out that the sound of an opera and generally to a million things that a robot driver cannot but most of those things don't matter to us when we get into the back of the camera oftentimes we prefer to be left alone rather than make conversation I know occasionally guilty of this when of the common themes of the new economy is that women are better acquit to excel in the growth areas and opportunity's in a service economy including nurturing and teaching other people which are among the toughest activities two automates conventional e-mail dominated jobs like manufacturing's warehouse shelving and truck driving are among the easiest fifth I've heard women saying why don't man just adapt and taken on more feminine roles this a lot easier said than done and I'm not convinced asking people to go against type because the market demands it is the right response the market doesn't care what some best for us trying to reshape humanity to meet its demands may not be the answer on other fronts there are significant initiatives to include more women in high paying fields like technology and finance them remain predominantly male it's I started a few companies enjoy nothing more than building great teams of people were happy and engage with their work that said I think that many people both overestimate the qualities that human beings bring to work in underestimate the drawbacks of hirings humans is a partial list of things that can make people in perfect workers and management in all consuming role for people generally require a degree of training we typically want more overtime we need to rest you require Health Care that you sometimes must pay for me can be very particular about me get sick you want to feel good about what we're doing we have bad days we can't do the same cast precisely the same way millions of times we have families who want we want to spend time with their sometimes better jobs and need to be fired in which case we generally one severance pay or we will make you feel bad we get bored we have a legal protections we occasionally sue our employers we can become demoralized and unproductive we take 15 to 20 years of mere eight to become productive and then we are unproductive and infirm for 10 to 15 years at the back end of our lives we often want you to pay us to account for both the time at the ends and the cost of raising our children if something bad happens to one of us the others noticed you occasionally harass each other or sleep with each other we sleep we sometimes are dishonest and even steal the occasionally quiet and look for other jobs we see things we share information some of us use drugs we get injured and disabled we are unreliable we sometimes change our minds we sometimes take breaks we should be working is sometimes organize and negotiate for various benefits beyond what we could get on our own we sometimes have bad judgment and connect out in ways that will tarnish or brand we have social media accounts we expect time off for holidays we sometimes get divorced or have relationships and which we which can make us said an unproductive we sometimes talk to reporters you cannot tell us sell us to another firm we do not come with warranties are software often does not upgrade easily at the beginning of the book a coach terry Gough the founder of the Taiwanese Manufacturing Company fox, on during humans two animals he brought 300,000 robust into his factories to supplement his 1,000,000 workers making apple products in part because 14 fox com workers had committed suicide in the previous two years in contrasts robust enough experience emotions and do not get depressed the automation wave is coming in part because if your sole goal is to get work done people are much trickier to deal with them machines acknowledging this is not a bad thing that is a necessary step forth finding solutions and may push us to think more deeply about what makes humanity valuable is worth considering whether is humans are not actually best suited for many forms of work consider also the reverse our most forms of work ideal for a few means that is if we're not good for work is work and good for us old he wrote that work keeps at bay three great evils mortem a bias and needed the total absence of work is demonstrably a bad thing and for most people long-term unemployment is presently one of the most destructive things that can happen to a person happiness levels tank and never recover 12010 study by a group of German researchers suggests that is worse over time for life satisfaction than the death of a spouse or permanent injury there is a loss of status the general malaise and demoralization which appears so magically or psychologically that prolong the unemployment said Ralph Catalan owe a public health professor at UC Berkeley on the other hand most people don't actually like their jobs according to go up only 13% of workers worldwide report being engaged with their jobs the numbers are a little better in America with 32% saying they were engage with their work in 2015 still that means that more than 2/3 Americans aren't exactly stepping on their way to and from the office speech day is comedian drew Carey puts its only you had your john why didn't you say so there's a support group for that is called everybody and they meet at the bar most of a struggle to find work that we're excited about particularly if we have financial goals and pressures to meet even the successful among us have made and number of compromises and learned to more effectively adapt to them over time when you encounter someone who really likes his or her job you remember is because in so rare the relationship between humanity and work involves money but in something of a negative correlation the jobs and rules that are most of the most human and one actually be most attractive tend to pay nothing or close two nothing mother father artist waiter musician coach teacher storyteller nurturer counselor dancer poet philosopher journalist these rules are often either unpaid work pay so little that it is difficult to survive or thrive in many environments many of these roles have hired positive social impacts that are ignored by the markets on the other hand the most lucrative jobs tend to be the most inorganic corporate lawyers technologists finance years traders management council assists and delight assume a high degree of a fish and sea the more than a person can submerge won its humanity to the logic of the marketplace will hire the reward part of this understanding in America is a high level of commitment to work on a new educated Americans are working longer hours than they did 30 years ago and many are expected to be available via e-mail on nights and weekends even as working hours have dropped in other developed countries 4 to 10 Americans reported working more than 50 hours per week in a recent Gallup survey is wasn't always the case American workweeks were actually getting shorter up until 1980 john mean your teens the British economist them as they pricked date did in 1930 that given the continued growth in productivity in progress by 2030 the western standard of living with the four times higher and we would be working only 15 hours per week he was right on the standard of living and very wrong on our work weeks meanwhile numerous studies have shown that a lot of the work we're doing isn't really adding value and that we could cause our hours and maintain most of our productivity Benjamin Hunnicutt a historian at the University of Iowa argues that if a cashier's job or a video game we would call it completely mindless and the worst they never designed but it is called a job politicians praise it as dignified and meaningful on a content serves that purpose meaning identity fulfillment creativity autonomy all these things that positive psychology has shown us to be necessary for well being are absent in the everett's job most judge today are a means for survival without their structure and supports people suffer psychologically and socially as well as financially and even physically whether work is good for humans depends on based on your point of view we don't like it and we're almost certainly getting too much of its but we don't know what to do with ourselves without its Oscar Wilde wrote work is the refuge of people wherever nothing better to do unfortunately that may describe the vast majority of us the challenge we must overcome is that humans need work more than work needs us eighths the usual objections and it had hundreds of conversations about the impact of automation on the labor market with people all over the country of various backgrounds the most common question I theory is if this were happening ways we know about its people are uncertain and skeptical as to what's happening with the American economy a lot of people want to believe what they see a right in front of them or what they steer from partisan websites in social media they reinforce their current idea is is hard to believe in things that are developed hundreds of miles away on the campuses of technology companies often behind closed doors before we move on to the next part of the book and explore what the future might hold I want to tackle a few of the common questions I'd hear our fears of disappearing jobs something that people claim periodically like with both the agricultural and industrial revolution and it's always wrong is true that agriculture went from 40% of the work force in 1900 to 2% in 2017 am the nonetheless managed to both rolled more food and create more wondrous new jobs during that time is also true that service sector jobs multiplied in many unforeseen ways than sword most of the work force after the industrial revolution people sounded the alarm of automation is trying jobs in the 19th century Alou that's destroying textile mills in England be the most famous as well as in the 1920s and the 1960s and they've always been wildly off the mark bidding against new jobs has been completely heal founded at every point in the past so why is this time difference is actually the technology in question is more diverse and being implemented more broadly over a larger number of economic sectors at a faster pace than during any previous time the event of big farms tractors factories assembly lines and personal computers while each a very big deal for the labor market were orders of magnitude less revolutionary than advancements like artificial intelligence machine learning and self driving vehicles advanced robotics smart phones drones three the printing and virtual and augmented reality the Internet are things did a mix digital currencies and nanotechnology these changes affect a multitude of industries that each employee millions of people the speed with impact in nature of the changes are considerably more dramatic than anything that has come before is true that some would that it would be the first time that the labor market did not meaningfully untapped and adjust up and WINNT the former head of the Federal Reserve said in May 2017 you have to reorganize realistically that hey I is qualitatively different from an internal combustion at Hansen and that it was always the case that human imagination creativity social interaction those things where you need to humans and couldn't be replicated by machines we're coming close to the point where not only cashews by surgeons might be at least partially replaced by 89 58% of cross sector experts polled and Bloomberg in 2017 agreed with the statements is in fact different this time and that the labor market as Russians will be severe and unprecedented the consensus is growing economic economists in particular seem predisposed to suggest that all will be well people invoke the industrial revolution and say we have heard these fears before all the way back to the loot its new jobs always appear there is an almost magical embracing a figure is cloaked into military is unknowable what the new jobs will be is beyond human wisdom that would be here again to guess I just know that they will be there oftentimes the person with these all will be OK'd is guilty of what I call constructive institutional is an operating from a default stance that things will work themselves hoped this is to my mind and as a bowl of judgment and reality that serve the repeats itself until it doesn't no one has an incentive to sound the alarm to do so could make you seem uneducated and bitter end of history and perhaps even negative and shrill in also would make you right in this case there is never been a computer smarter than humans until now sell thriving cars are a different type of leap forward than the invention of cars themselves data is about to supplant human judgment and on and on is like the warning you get when investing sometimes the past is not the best indicator of the present or future is important also to remember when things got quite growth during the industrial revolution in America this is the period between 1870 and 1914 when factories and assembly lines absorbed millions of workers before world war one there was considerable upheaval and the role of the state the vault in response to unrest labor unions rode up rose up in 1886 and push for increased worker rights 40 hour work weeks and defined pensions Labor Day was inaugurated as a national holiday in 1894 in response to a real race track that killed 30 people and caused $80,000,000 in damages the equivalent of $2.2 billion today United States instituted universal high school in 1910 only 19% of American teenagers were in high school and nearly 9% of 18 year olds graduating by 194073 percent of teenagers were in high school in the median American graduated the women's suffrage movement culminated in success in 1920 and socialism and communism and anarchism were all vital political movements there was a constant wave of revolution even if you rely solely on history you'd expect a lot of conflict in chains ahead as the labor pool shifts to two technological advance's I will stop there and done reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang and I'm like zone thanks for listening T fourth th fifth BTFL a The N one