I believe that you got this quite right. The supply of new bitcoins beeing reduced, miners will only continue to work if the rewards cover at least the costs. This would work only with higher btc prices.
If prices dont go up the mining acticity will diminuish and transaction costs will increase. Less new coins will be minted and the supply will grow slower. Sooner or later prices have to grow. I think its a good time to buy btc.

Posted using Partiko Android