Let me say first that I’ve been following your YouTube channel and I think is top notch. Keep on the good work man. I even liked your recent post about RaiBlocks, it was honest, and for me, that’s all that matters.
I agree with you that most altcoins right now are overvalued, but I think Cardano is not one of them. If anything, Cardano is only slightly overvalued right now (as I write this, ADA is trading for $1.20, something closer to $1 would be a better price IMHO) and I think that when next major release of the project is out (expected for Q2), the price could reach a support level of about $2.
This year started with a huge influx of new people wanting to buy cryptoassets for the first time (myself included) and I think coinmarketcap.com has become somewhat misleading lately. Of the top 10 coins, six have much higher circulating supply (in the billions) than the other four (in the millions), the other four being the staple coins listed on coinbase and most exchanges that accept fiat. People new to crypto initially only care about this top 10 coins, and the metric they use to compare this coins is not volume or marketcap, but price. I think this gives the high supply coins a advantage in that their price feels more accessible and reasonable to the average buyer. Cardano benefits from this advantage, and as soon as Cardano get listed in coinbase and the other mayor exchanges (and I think is a better candidate than Ripple for that), or if archives some kind of important partnership, I see people seeing it as the new Ripple and reaching a marketcap in the top 3.
The main reason I think Cardano’s current price is justified is because of the amazing level of human capital and talent in the Cardano team. Charles Hoskinson, the leader of the team, is like the John Hammond character in Jurassic Park, in that he “spared no expense” in recruiting for this project. People like Philip Wadler, one of the principal designers of the Haskell programming language and a long time wizard of the functional programming world (please check his homepage and tell me you're not impressed: http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/wadler) is designing the language for dapps, among other things. I really need to stress this point about Cardano, I haven’t seen this concentration of sheer talent in ANY other crypto project. The daedalus wallet alone has 9 developers, that’s more than total the number of developers for at least 80% of the altcoins. This is one of the better design wallets I’ve seen in this space and is just getting started.
Everything about Cardano is beautiful, well designed, well thought out and planned. The documentation is excellent, and the YouTube channel of IOHK (the main company behind the project) is very well produced, I’m yet to see anything like this for any other project in this space, and I invite anyone interested in the technology and plans for Cardano to watch the whiteboard sessions, they are surprisingly engaging and noob friendly.
Charles said in a recent interview that his goal for Cardano is to be the first cryptocurrency to reach o trillion dollars in market cap. For that Cardano would have to be priced a about 39$. I believe Cardano has a fair chance of reaching this goal within the next 3 years, and it will prove to be a great long term value investment.
Human capital is valuable and their team is remarkably impressive, but if you told me today that Bill Gates was making a cryptocurrency that was more in the concept stage, I wouldn't pay over $10b for it. I mean that's a unicorn. Your explanations for why it is undervalued explain more why its price is justified, but not that its valuation is which are two separate deals. Ideas can only be worth so much without execution and testing of scale, security, governance, etc.